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Show HN: EDW, quantitative analytics, machine learning.

70 pointsby a904guyover 14 years ago

11 comments

aothmanover 14 years ago
Looks impressive, particularly if those are real trading results.<p>One concern I immediately have is overfitting, particularly for claims about how various difficult values have been optimized to be the "best possible". It looks like the parameter space in use is truly enormous and so it would be very easy to come up with hypotheses that perform fantastically on your dataset but terribly in real life. This seems like it would be a first-order concern, while the ability to run tests in a single day seems second-order if those tests are producing garbage outputs.
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cschmidtover 14 years ago
Looking at the web interface, it is claiming a 92% success rate on trades. That clearly indicates to me that those results are "in-sample". In other words, the model was trained on some data, and then backtested on that same data. In-sample results are essentially worthless. I used to work for a quant hedge fund, and at least on daily trading, you could have great results with 60% correct. There's no way you can have 92%.<p>Finding a useful financial signal is not primarily a search problem through a giant space of potential indicators. It is all about controlling for overfitting, and ensuring that the signal continues into the future. Also, I saw no mention of transaction costs for the trading strategy, which can often turn a great strategy into a money losing one.
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benmccannover 14 years ago
Why don't the values for year-to-date and month-to-date match? Is it a fake mock or a bug?<p>Why is Liquid Equity significantly greater than Account Value? Is it another fake mock thing or are you currently employing a leverage slightly greater than 3x?
copperover 14 years ago
Since this article doesn't mention it clearly, the demo is really nice, and worth a look: <a href="http://edwardworthington.com/" rel="nofollow">http://edwardworthington.com/</a>
michael_dorfmanover 14 years ago
Based on the headline, I was really expecting a post explaining that edw519 had been silently replaced by a bot for the past few weeks, and that we've all been participants in a Turing Test.<p>For a moment there, I was seriously impressed.
ajaysover 14 years ago
This looks interesting. Even though it's closed-source, the architecture is interesting.<p>As an amateur, I'm always stymied by the lack of data. For intra-day trading, where do you get the data?
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gaspardover 14 years ago
Applying these engineering forces to build a huge "casino winning" software is a waste. What happens if it works ? We have the over-super-rich who can build and maintain such machines that get richer and the rest of us with debts and taxes. I hope such experiments accelerate towards a Tobin tax: fast speculative machines (nanotrading) will just die away and we will get back to "investment" based trading not casino.
b0b0b0bover 14 years ago
When modelling hypothetical trades do you account for slippage and transaction costs?
spitfireover 14 years ago
If you look at his P&#38;L sheet he has some largish drawdowns, with a lot of neutralish trades. I'd prefer to see smaller, but more consistent wins.
chr15over 14 years ago
Is this still how it works? <a href="http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1946902" rel="nofollow">http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1946902</a>
chopsueyarover 14 years ago
Can anyone comment on their experience with OptionsHouse?