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What is energy, actually? (2011)

254 pointsby gorpovitchover 5 years ago

32 comments

nabla9over 5 years ago
The argument is based on looking a the world as a whole.<p>In developed world energy intensity of GDP is decreasing even when you take into account imports. Post-industrial economies can grow while decreasing energy use.<p>What the author is suggesting is that the developing world should stop growing. I can&#x27;t agree with that. They need their electricity and washing machines.<p>GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)<p>EU: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.worldbank.org&#x2F;indicator&#x2F;EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?locations=EU" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.worldbank.org&#x2F;indicator&#x2F;EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?lo...</a><p>US: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.worldbank.org&#x2F;indicator&#x2F;EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?locations=US" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.worldbank.org&#x2F;indicator&#x2F;EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?lo...</a>
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hliyanover 5 years ago
Somewhat tangentially related: I wrote this in a private note to a friend last year. I don&#x27;t believe this 100%, but the idea is worth exploring in my opinion:<p>1. Corporations desperately pursue continuous growth, even when they&#x27;re already profitable, and do so at the expense of the environment, employee welfare and sometimes, the rule of law.<p>2. Corporations pursue growth because investors demand it.<p>3. Investors demand growth because they want a certain minimum return on investment.<p>4. Investors need to invest money in instruments with a certain minimum ROI because if they don&#x27;t, inflation will erode their savings.<p>5. This continuous growth requirement forces companies to compete for larger and larger portions of market share, which in turn forces their competitors to compete harder in response.<p>6. The end result is a sort of &quot;Red Queen&quot; effect where everyone is forced to compete harder and harder just to maintain his&#x2F;her existing standard of living.<p>7. We know that the more extreme a competition becomes, the more ruthless the participants become, often to the point of acting immorally.<p>8. Therefore, we should focus on curbing inflation to curb the pace of overwhelming growth, and thereby restore some measure of social justice.
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charlysistoover 5 years ago
Very impressed to find Jancovici here. I&#x27;ve been watching his intervention for 6 months and I found he has one of the most rational approach to our coming world. It is bleak but not desperate, although his main message is : technology&#x2F;economy (based on our consumption of fossil fuel) will not have time to catch up on the coming catastrophies and the inevitable pic oil. We have shaped the world to our convenience now we have to adapt to it and the illusion of infinite resource needs to end or it will end us.
abyssinover 5 years ago
French speakers, don&#x27;t miss Jancovici&#x27;s appearances on Thinkerview. Along with Bihouix, his talks are clear and enlightening.
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saint_fiascoover 5 years ago
That&#x27;s easy to say from the First World, where they already traded our (global) environment for (local) gains. But what are the people in poor countries supposed to do? Just stay poor forever?
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nickikover 5 years ago
There is so much wrong with this.<p>&gt; from 1880 to 1975, when energy per capita is strongly growing, the world undergoes just one major economic crisis, in 1929.<p>&gt; since 1975, after the rate of growth dramatically decreased, there has been a crisis every 5 to 10 years: 1975, 1980, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2012, and it would be no surprise to have a new one in the coming years.<p>These statements are just totally wrong. There were many more economic crisis between 1880 - 1975 and often those were worse then those since 1975.<p>These statements are just 100% opposite of every history of economics I have ever seen.<p>It seems he gets the causation totally backwards.<p>&gt; and recurring recessions will become something normal in our economic system<p>Recessions are absolutely not linked to energy supply.
bullenover 5 years ago
I&#x27;m mostly commenting here to be able to find this guy again later.<p>But now that I have listened to him he is 100% spot on about most things.<p>The only problems this guys has are:<p>1) He&#x27;s biased for nuclear because it feeds him. Nuclear cannot be built without hydrocarbons and toxic nuclear waste is not something you can dig down into the ground without hydrocarbons, even if the radiation is only hazardous for 1000 years, we&#x27;re not going to have enough energy to handle the waste.<p>2) He does not understand money enough yet. Fiat money cannot have value without hydrocarbons. GDP is 99% debt because today money is 99% debt and therefore neither has value. Money is something humans have arbitrarily invented without being inspired by nature, it does not exist!<p>3) He does not understand that some things run and use energy whether you use them or not. For example the routers on the internet because processors are synchronous. The solution is async. processors, but our economic system doesn&#x27;t encourage energy saving research, at least before it&#x27;s too late, which is now.<p>That said, if the energy density of uranium is 1000000x that of oil, which in it&#x27;s turn is 1000x more than batteries; this guy for president?
acidburnNSAover 5 years ago
Great discussion. My favorite definition of energy is that it is a replacement for the labor and time of human beings. Energy gives us freedom to choose how to live our lives because it does stuff for us that we don&#x27;t want to do. This is why so few of us are farmers. Energy leads very directly to high quality of life.<p>As such, per capita energy usage isn&#x27;t just linked to GDP, but also to Human Development Index (a composite index to quantify quality of life that includes GDP).<p>Here&#x27;s what HDI vs. per capital electricity usage looks like: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;8otdGxP.jpg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;8otdGxP.jpg</a><p>Bubble size is proportional to population. While correlation does not imply causation, it&#x27;s quite clear that as quality of life improves, so does energy usage, to a point.<p>The striking thing is the knee. The knee is mentioned in the parent article from a GDP point of view but I think that&#x27;s only part of the story. On the low-energy side, you can see that a little bit of energy can dramatically improve your quality of life. At the very low end is where people are cooking with indoor stoves and dying to the tune of 3.8 million per year from indoor air pollution.<p>Then you see for places like the USA, we could cut our per capita energy usage in half and probably not be affected from a quality of life standpoint. We&#x27;re saturated.<p>There is a worldwide moral imperative to increase per capita energy usage of people at the low end of this curve for quality of life reasons. They deserve the ability to choose how they spend their time. Doing so requires about a 2-4x increase in total world energy production.<p>Energy sources that can enable that kind of gain without causing more air pollution deaths and without causing climate change are well-known. Here they are as a function of carbon emissions (equivalent) per kWh generated: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;8LQFVMO.png" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;8LQFVMO.png</a>
alexnewmanover 5 years ago
It is ludicrous how few economists are willing to take thermodynamics as a limiting theory to the economy when it&#x27;s so critical in finance and science.<p>Not as crazy as the fact ISLM doesn&#x27;t capture private debt, but still a huge problem
Dumblydorrover 5 years ago
It would make far more sense to massively increase energy efficiency across all segments. This will further decouple GDP from emissions.
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anovikovover 5 years ago
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yearbook.enerdata.net&#x2F;total-energy&#x2F;world-energy-intensity-gdp-data.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yearbook.enerdata.net&#x2F;total-energy&#x2F;world-energy-inte...</a><p>Yet, reduction of energy use per unit of GDP is not impossible. In the last 28 years there has been reduction by 35% overall.
carapaceover 5 years ago
&gt; The term “GDP per energy unit” is nothing else than the energy efficiency of the economy: the more efficient the economic system is, the more GDP is produced with the same amount of energy. In other words, when this term increases, it means that for the same amount of kWh (or BTU!), we can have more furniture, glasses, cars, frozen peas, buildings or coffee machines.<p>FWIW, i want to point out that this is an often-overlooked leverage point for improving our situation. Our systems today are grossly inefficient. For example, something like 30%-50% of the electricity we generate (okay, <i>transform</i>) is lost in the grid on the way to the consumer. Much of it is lost after that too.
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CraigJPerryover 5 years ago
We make more things, but we consume less resources to do it today than ever before. That was the essential point of Andrew McAfee&#x27;s book and his discussion on Econtalk the other week.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.econtalk.org&#x2F;andrew-mcafee-on-more-from-less&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.econtalk.org&#x2F;andrew-mcafee-on-more-from-less&#x2F;</a><p>That appears to be backed up here too; this article reports that the $GDP per kWh is increasing over time.<p>Does this then mean that reducing GDP will have disproportionately LESS of an effect on energy consumption than it will have on value? I.e. we will have to take a much bigger hit on value produced to effect energy consumed.
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jhallenworldover 5 years ago
I think there is only limited correlation between physical energy and money. Money is directly tied with human work: wages for time and effort. Physical energy can vary widely depending on the specific work, even when the price is the same.<p>The cost of fossil fuel is low because the human work necessary to extract it is very low- it&#x27;s a problem for the ecology due to no (immediate) human work cost for the Co2 damage. The cost of solar is even lower (which is why it&#x27;s disruptive)- once you have the solar panel, you don&#x27;t need any human work.
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austincheneyover 5 years ago
In a market economy there is a lot of deliberate inefficiency. Commercial economies are driven, primarily, by transaction quantity, which is most typically exchanging end goods&#x2F;services for money. Exchange quantity goes up as wages go up and unemployment goes down. Therefore it is in the interest of companies and government that people are employed, as many as possible, even if each person does very little to substantiate the wages earned. This line of thinking falls apart when an economy enters a correction.<p>Likewise, people will require less energy when wages shrink or disappear all together. Energy consumption is one of many indirect parts of the market economy. When people have less money they will travel less and shop less, which decreases the need for fuel and manufacturing.<p>---<p>Reducing energy consumption is a very bad deliberate goal though. Energy efficiency is a natural goal from the collision of increased demand versus fuel cost. The economic desire to increase energy efficiency does just result in lower prices but also cleaner fuel sources. This has trended true over the last 150 years far before people became aware of environment consequences from rising fuel consumption.<p>Since rising demand, a product of rising consumption rates, drives technology interest in fuel efficiency it is healthier for future economies, and the environment, to encourage greater fuel consumption at consequence to the economy, and environment, at the present. That statement will remain true only so long as up scaling increase of efficiency outpaces up scaling rates of consumption over time. So far the difference in scale has shown true since the start industrialization and there is no indication that the difference in scale will decrease.<p>Another way to think about this is energy equivalence. As energy sources become cheaper, cleaner, and more available over time they allow greater access to energy by people with less purchasing power. A poor third world economy can grow in ways it could not before because less investment is demanded to achieve growth independence. These new and emerging energy sources and distribution methods are not created for humanitarian reasons. They are created from expensive investment to satisfy expensive first world energy demands. The people who benefit most are those with the greatest need in developing economies under high market pressure without the luxury of expensive investments in infrastructure or logistics. An under-developed economy with high market pressure is one where there is huge demand for raw goods&#x2F;resources but that economy lacks the finances to invest in itself, such as Ghana under the cocoa industry.
erikbyeover 5 years ago
Why do we need public companies?
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gpsxover 5 years ago
How do these ideas of energy relate to things like google search and software in general? I know server farms use a ton of energy and I also am pretty sure the human brain is by far the biggest consumer of energy in the human body. Maybe it is just that different forms of value creation take different amounts of energy. I suppose it takes much more energy to create a car than to add a new software user.
reacwebover 5 years ago
In the not so distant future, energy could become abundant thanks to solar energy. On the other hand, physical resources (rare earths but also the molecules contained in oil) are limited. I think it is more important to seek better recycling, reduce waste than to reduce energy consumption.
tkyjonathanover 5 years ago
All countries in the world pursue growth. Forcing them to reduce their energy usage, is a non-starter.<p>Your best bet would be to reduce the energy consumption of things and have more power sources that have no CO2 emissions like hydro-electric and nuclear.
remotecoolover 5 years ago
Unless births are also somehow limited, limiting GDP growth will eventually cause large amounts of poverty.<p>Nobody wants to admit that the only real way to limit energy consumption is a horrible dystopian future.
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wazooxover 5 years ago
For millennia, there was no growth because available energy was strictly limited. GDP of a country was a function of its population, itself strongly related to its agricultural capacity.<p>Read ancient history; you&#x27;ll see that empires, for ages, relied entirely upon pillaging their neighbours for their own enhancement. The world economy was a strictly zero-sum game basically forever.<p>The political constructions of the past reflected that state of the matter. There was no social mobility because resource scarcity commanded that as a son of a mason, you couldn&#x27;t be anything but a mason. And of course, 90% of people had to work in agriculture, anyway, just to feed everyone. There was no way out. <i>Of course</i> society was driven through rigid hierarchies.<p>Then at some point some guy discovered America, and a strong, growing influx of riches began pouring into Europe. People discovered absolute, continued growth. Then as this trend continued and England had cut down all its trees, they started using coal, and the movement accelerated itself, and went on until now.<p>As Jancovici remarks, we <i>always</i> went from some energy source to a more powerful, denser, more reliable one: hunting to agriculture, windmills and hand pumps to coal, coal to oil. We never went the other way around, but at some time we&#x27;ll have to. How to cope?<p>Now let&#x27;s talk for a minute about GDP. I had quite heated argument with people with economics background. Basically, they say that GDP can grow eternally because GDP is related to <i>value</i>, which has no physical existence. So though GDP generally implies some form of materiality (be it in the form of ore, grain, industrial goods, or services) it&#x27;s not <i>mandatory</i> because you could for instance build a better car using no more materials than the previous one.<p>However it seems to me that this quickly wanders into philosophical territory: what is value? In economics, it seems related to human satisfaction. As the number of human beings on earth is physically limited (we could be 10 billions, 100 billions, but not an infinity), at some point that implies that individual satisfaction can increase indefinitely. That&#x27;s a stretch, however you see it. That would mean that two humans exchanging a given set of resources in a closed room could increase indefinitely the satisfaction they get from their relationship, and so any arbitrary small country with as few inhabitants as you want could have an infinitely growing GDP, and reach individual nirvana and beyond. BTW I fail to see the point of free trade at this point... Standard neoclassic economics are full of such logical holes.
jryan49over 5 years ago
If we entirely give up growth the world&#x27;s standards of living will freeze where it is.
andy_pppover 5 years ago
I&#x27;m very very unconvinced by this, why can&#x27;t we have a green jobs revolution and sensible environmental protections and growth! These are not exclusive, just caused by a lack of imagination.
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supernova87aover 5 years ago
Kind of amusing that this idea is posted here on Hacker News, the center of people seeking jobs and companies that are the definition of growth.<p>If you didn’t have growth, you’d all be waiting for your promotion at the power plant when someone dies and frees up a position for you.
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jstewartmobileover 5 years ago
A lot of charts and napkin math to reach an obvious conclusion. Better discussion would be, &quot;<i>A) Why do we worship GDP, and B) how do we stop?</i>&quot;<p>My own answers (shared as a starting point rather than a destination) would be:<p>A)<p>- old westerners are really attached to the pensions they promised themselves<p>- marginally-skilled people prefer the illusion of agency offered by employment over being total dependents of the state<p>- people who have never experienced certain products and services attach much more value to them than those who already have--new toy vs old hat.<p>- plutocrats are very interested in keeping the machine well-oiled so that they may enjoy their lives in peace and keep the guillotine at bay.<p>and B)<p>- short of civilizational collapse, I&#x27;m not sure that we can.
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BjoernKWover 5 years ago
The title is misleading in that it&#x27;s not exactly the conclusion the article arrives at.<p>The article has it quite the other way round: Once energy consumption doesn&#x27;t grow anymore we either need more efficient means of growth (i.e. less energy consumption per growth unit) or we have to forego growth.<p>It&#x27;s pre-Industrial-Age Malthus all over again: Barring paradigm shifts that allow for more efficient production planet Earth can only sustain a maximum number of people (roughly 1 billion around Malthus&#x27; lifetime).<p>However, Malthus&#x27; theory has been disproven time and time again precisely because there have always been such paradigm shifts that allowed us to sustain more people with fewer resources, in others words to increase GDP&#x2F;NRJ as well as NRJ&#x2F;POP.<p>If NRJ&#x2F;POP becomes stagnant either GDP&#x2F;NRJ will have to grow rapidly or there won&#x27;t by any GDP growth - and by extension population growth - anymore.<p>I just don&#x27;t get the seemingly recurring obsession with artificially limiting growth. Yes, thermodynamically the energy available ultimately is limited but that doesn&#x27;t mean we should start to behave as if we&#x27;ve already reached thermodynamic equilibrium.<p>What supporters of artificially limiting GDP growth often don&#x27;t acknowledge is that placing such a limit also places a hard limit on population growth or even necessitates a reduction in population.<p>In fiction, one staunch proponent of such an approach is Avengers villain Thanos, who doesn&#x27;t want to decimate half of the Universe&#x27;s population for a lark or because he&#x27;s simply evil but because he&#x27;s on a mission to free the Universe from growth and overpopulation.<p>I suggest that instead of obsessing with the NRJ&#x2F;POP term in the equation we focus on GDP&#x2F;NRJ instead.
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tyzerdakover 5 years ago
I calculated that I use 3000kwh per year (only direct electricity+gas)<p>If everyone use such amounts there were no global warming. But humans always have not enough stuff...
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cyborgx7over 5 years ago
They can&#x27;t. Capitalism can only exist in growth. To give up growth you would need to give up Capitalism.<p>You should do both.<p>Edit: Do people who downvote me disagree that Capitalism necessitates growth to function? Or do they disagree that we should get rid of it?
mytailorisrichover 5 years ago
Give up population growth. This really is key but too often overlooked.
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bufferoverflowover 5 years ago
This is silly. You will not convince most people to abandon technological progress.
atemerevover 5 years ago
“To reduce energy consumption, stop growing your net worth. Stay poor”.<p>It is exactly the same on the micro level.
miklover 5 years ago
Funny how it’s always private spending that’s being targeted by the people who want us to become poorer to save the environment.<p>And yes, becoming poorer is what giving up on GDP growth means for most of us, since the population is growing.<p>How about we started cutting the fat in the public sector? All that debt-fuelled overspending western governments engage in has a massive climate impact.
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