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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

164 pointsby nerdkid93over 5 years ago

23 comments

nerdkid93over 5 years ago
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening for quite some time.
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nabla9over 5 years ago
All I see is verbal narratives that don&#x27;t justify the price. Just saying that Tesla is good company, grows fast, has advantage, is not enough. Everything can be overvalued.<p>Narratives without numbers are just as valid for $100B valuation as they are for $500B or $1 Trillion.<p>Has any Tesla investor done the investor math justifying the price compared against SP500 Index Fund for 6% total return for example.<p>Even if Tesla&#x27;s revenue and profit margin equal Toyota 10 years from now, I can&#x27;t see it being worth $100B today. Permanently higher product margins and no viable competition?
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rb808over 5 years ago
So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.
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aynycover 5 years ago
I don&#x27;t know how to value a stock, but after riding in my friend&#x27;s Tesla a few times on road trips. I seriously doubt I&#x27;ll buy a ICE car ever again unless for specific purposes (mini-van). I know 10 people who owns Tesla, the 6 or so friends I&#x27;ve spoken about it feel the same way as I do. If this keeps up, I think Tesla&#x27;s stock price is under valued.
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coder1001over 5 years ago
Given the expected improvements in battery efficiency over time and the brand Tesla built for itself as THE company to buy from if you want an EV, I would say Tesla&#x27;s best days are yet to come.
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yaloginover 5 years ago
The biggest advantage they have is their supercharging network. Every manufacturer is focusing on ADAS and electric cars but no one is focusing on the network. That is their biggest advantage and the only reason to buy a Tesla, granted their cars are great but without the network it’s just an expensive commute car.
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dcchambersover 5 years ago
I am ready for an electric vehicle - but I can&#x27;t get over how much I dislike the interior of the Model 3 and Y. I hate the single-giant-touchscreen interface they have settled on. I get it, it&#x27;s cheap for them to produce <i>and</i> it looks &#x27;futuristic.&#x27; I firmly believe physical knobs and buttons are better for most things in a car. The Model S and Model X are better, but they&#x27;re pretty much out of my price range.<p>I also want a proper SUV&#x2F;truck - the Model X&#x2F;Y don&#x27;t cut it, and don&#x27;t get me started on the cybertruck...
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totalZeroover 5 years ago
All the people who had the balls to sell TSLA short have already gotten hurt in the come-up, and although everyone thinks this market as a whole is going to correct soon, nobody wants to take the risk of calling a top.<p>So yeah, expect the name with 14%+ short interest to keep rallying in this market, for the near term.<p>One thing I do wonder about is how the roll-off of tax credits will affect their US sales.
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kgwgkover 5 years ago
The article doesn’t mention (or I’ve missed it) the short squeeze aspect which is definitely one of the drivers.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;investorplace.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;01&#x2F;play-tesla-stock-short-squeeze&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;investorplace.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;01&#x2F;play-tesla-stock-short-squ...</a>
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sillysaurusxover 5 years ago
If you&#x27;re wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of &quot;What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?&quot;<p>This isn&#x27;t as unlikely as it seems: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;whyvert&#x2F;status&#x2F;1219288360096694273" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;whyvert&#x2F;status&#x2F;1219288360096694273</a><p>Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There&#x27;s a lot of room to grow.
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hnarnover 5 years ago
Beyond the expected comments about Tesla being the iPod of the auto industry, I personally feel like these types of valuations during the beginning of an economical slowdown can be judged by the duck test. If it looks like a bubble, and sounds like a bubble, it will probably pop like a bubble. Unfortunately, most of the time this opinion will be grouped together with &quot;Tesla haters&quot;, of which I&#x27;m definitely not one. I love Tesla and I want them to succeed, but runaway valuations based on hopes and dreams are normal in a bubble, and when you look around I see a lot more factors saying &quot;yes&quot; than those saying &quot;no&quot; when I wonder if this is another tech bubble or not. When valuations will level out though, noone knows.
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SergeAxover 5 years ago
If you check out some of the automotive AI companies, you will see half a dozen names like Nuro, Aurora, Momenta, TuSimple, Pony, Zoox. There are more in the neigbourhood with tech like lidars, computer vision and so on.<p>Those companies has literally NOTHING beyond software and early prototypes, but they still are valued at <i>billions</i> of dollars each. So, compared to them, what should be a valuation of a profitable company with large scale production, foothold in China, massive and ever growing real life datasets and so on and so on?
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rvzover 5 years ago
Given that they previously had a surprise profit in the last quarter, there is also a degree of risk in what happens in the next quarter as they have been unprofitable for years despite huge revenues.<p>Normally, I would stay away from throwing money at anything that is at an all time high (ATH) and would sell now or close to less than the ATH price at this point before it starts to dive with a wave of sellers.
sjg007over 5 years ago
I dunno. I want a Tesla as my next car and a lot of folks have said similarly. I am tired of getting gas every 2 weeks or so and I am really tired of oil changes. If I can charge at home and at work that seems to be just right. I&#x27;d probably still have a bigger gas family hauler but day to day a Tesla.
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andrewmcwattersover 5 years ago
Book value, for reference, is closer to $32-ish dollars a share.
heedlessly3over 5 years ago
How is Tesla worth more than Ford? Their F-150 alone outsells all Tesla models combined
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omegantover 5 years ago
The valuation started climbing the second half of the year after the good production and sales numbers were published. But it had already plateaud, then the China megafactory presentation happened and the little dance that Elon made, seemed to help grab some attention there. This is enterely my (completely ignorant) guess, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least, if most of the recent shares buyers were chinese. Is there any way to look were the buy orders are coming from?
maxdoover 5 years ago
Key answer is margin , their margin is high , traditional Automakers - low . With things like cyber truck , the gap is getting bigger.
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_ph_over 5 years ago
Just looking at the current revenue, the valuation of Tesla seems increadible high. But there are quite a few reasons for the optimism connected to Tesla.<p>Tesla by a fair margin owns the market for electric cars. So anyone who thinks that electric cars are the future, should expect Tesla to do quite well. All big car companies are trying to keep up with Tesla in electric car tech and additionally, if the transition comes, are burdened with a lot of production facilities for ICE cars.<p>Tesla is also much more than just cars, they have their own charging infrastructure, battery manufacturing, might play a big role in cell manufacturing going forward and are getting important in the energy sector, which might overtake the car business one day.<p>Also, Tesla is growing exponentially. This gives a lot of growth fantasy, that they might get to the size of Amazon one day, which would mean a multiple of stock value compared today.<p>But most importantly, and that is the reason they have such a strong support amongst their current and potential customers: they keep innovating. A bit like Apple of the old, if they announce a new product, prepare to see something really new. While traditional car manufacturers keep iterating on their products, Tesla has completely new things, just think of the Cybertruck. Which other car annoucement got that much press coverage as the Cybertruck? Also, the Semi could get huge.<p>There are also some very technical factors driving the recent raise of the stock: there have been quite a few good, if not great news (Q4 sales numbers, Gigafactory 3 operating within 1 year of the building start, Gigafactory 4 planned). Then there is still a huge amount of stock shorted, so while it not might be a full short squeeze, the shorts need to cover the stocks they shorted. Finally, Tesla might join the S&amp;P 500, which means, that a lot of institutions have to buy Tesla stock, which will drive it up further, at least short-time.
cestithover 5 years ago
This is near the market valuation on IBM. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;seekingalpha.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;4318281-ibm-turnaround-is" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;seekingalpha.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;4318281-ibm-turnaround-is</a><p>Watch for some adjustments when people take (legal or publicity) action over troublesome app and website design.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tedstein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1144270122959417346" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tedstein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1144270122959417346</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tedstein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1219406746868953088" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tedstein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1219406746868953088</a>
cedivadover 5 years ago
I would just like to point out this is 75% of Bitcoin&#x27;s market cap, and at this point I&#x27;m not sure what the bubble is anymore. Maybe both? Or maybe TSLA proves BTC&#x27;s demand could have been genuine?<p>Graph: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;cedivad&#x2F;status&#x2F;1220032154912088064" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;cedivad&#x2F;status&#x2F;1220032154912088064</a>
richycaatover 5 years ago
I think it&#x27;s great more technology will come from it
lowdoseover 5 years ago
Is Tesla using image recognition to make a driver profile of every number plate Tesla detects in the wild?
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