Earlier today, researchers at Imperial College in London estimated that a total of 4,000 cases of Coronavirus in Wuhan City (with an uncertainty range of 1,000 to 9,700) had onset of symptoms by January 18. This compares with a Chinese government report of 440 confirmed cases as of January 21: <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/" rel="nofollow">https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...</a><p>According to the Imperial College researchers: "Exit screening (which reportedly came into force on the 15th January) had no impact on exported cases reported up to 16th January. Exit screening may have reduced exports in recent days, in which case our baseline prediction may be an underestimate of the true number of cases in Wuhan."<p>The researchers also write: "We assume all cases in travelers flying to destinations outside mainland China are being detected at those destinations. This may well not be the case. If cases are being missed in other countries, our baseline prediction will underestimate the true number of cases in Wuhan."<p>If anyone has more recent or higher-quality data or information (especially if it contradicts the Imperial estimates), please post it here!
China needs to crackdown on the ridiculous open air weird animal markets, and have people stop sleeping with their goddamned poultry. Seafood, fine -- no one's breathing in fish feces, getting some squid diseases. But birds, reptiles, weird shit like that running around contaminating the air people are breathing. I've seen it firsthand. Please, enough already.<p>It's demonstrably hurting their own interests at this point, after 3 recent outbreaks of world news-worthy diseases originating in such circumstances.
I've seen panic buying of face masks in Palo Alto and San Jose, mostly by people who appear of Chinese ancestry. I was doubtful on its efficacy, but it appears there is some benefit combined with hand-washing. It's probably a good idea to have hand sanitizer and face masks on-hand rather than waiting until they're sold out.
Isn't this overreacting?<p>In the US, the common flu has killed up to 61,000 people each year. This new virus has so far only killed 15 as of 2020/1/22.<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html</a>
It is reported that some Chinese are taking antipyretics to suppress symptoms of fever to evade quarantine checks, to get into other places like France (in traditional Chinese [1] and Google translated [2]), Japan (in traditional Chinese [3] and Google translated [4]) or other cities in China (in simplified Chinese [5]).<p>Edit: change one source.<p>[1]: <a href="http://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國" rel="nofollow">http://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國</a><p>[2]: <a href="https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfi.fr%2Ftw%2F中國%2F20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國" rel="nofollow">https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%...</a><p>[3]: <a href="https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20200116/bkn-20200116084329841-0116_00822_001.html" rel="nofollow">https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20200116/bkn-20200116084329...</a><p>[4]: <a href="https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhk.on.cc%2Fhk%2Fbkn%2Fcnt%2Fnews%2F20200116%2Fbkn-20200116084329841-0116_00822_001.html" rel="nofollow">https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...</a><p>[5]: <a href="https://i.lih.kg/540/https://na.cx/i/U1uhtVv.jpg" rel="nofollow">https://i.lih.kg/540/https://na.cx/i/U1uhtVv.jpg</a>
The last two books I read were Station 11 and Severance, and they make it tough not to be at least a little paranoid about this.<p>Great books, though.