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Coronavirus 3 Day Prediction

44 pointsby vackosarover 5 years ago

13 comments

dredmorbiusover 5 years ago
In gawk, as of 28 Jan, daily for 2 weeks, weekly for 100 days:<p><pre><code> #!&#x2F;usr&#x2F;bin&#x2F;gawk -f BEGIN { # Data as of 2020-1-28 doublerate = 1.71 dailyrate = 2&#x2F;doublerate cases = 6063 deaths = 132 now = mktime( &quot;2020 01 28 00 00 00&quot; ) maxdays = 14 interval = 1 printf( &quot;| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n&quot;, &quot;day&quot;, &quot;date&quot;, &quot;deaths&quot;, &quot;cases&quot; ) printf( &quot;|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n&quot;, &quot;:---&quot;, &quot;------------:&quot;, &quot;------------:&quot;, &quot;-------------:&quot; ) for(day=1; day&lt;=maxdays; day+=interval ) { date = strftime( &quot;%b %d, %Y&quot;, now + day * 86400 ) printf( &quot;| %3i | %-12s | %&#x27;12i | %&#x27;14i |\n&quot;, day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) ) } printf( &quot;\n\n&quot; ) maxdays = 100 interval = 7 printf( &quot;| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n&quot;, &quot;day&quot;, &quot;date&quot;, &quot;deaths&quot;, &quot;cases&quot; ) printf( &quot;|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n&quot;, &quot;:---&quot;, &quot;------------:&quot;, &quot;------------:&quot;, &quot;-------------:&quot; ) for(day=1; day&lt;=maxdays; day+=interval ) { date = strftime( &quot;%b %d, %Y&quot;, now + day * 86400 ) printf( &quot;| %3i | %-12s | %&#x27;12i | %&#x27;14i |\n&quot;, day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) ) } printf( &quot;\n&quot; ) }</code></pre>
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lbjover 5 years ago
&quot;The prediction is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will follow an exponential curve&quot;<p>This reminds me of news reports from the 90s, where the big fear was that Chinese companies would totally take over Europe. The big Chinese breakthrough would happen &#x27;next week&#x27;, &#x27;next year&#x27;, &#x27;next some arbitrary buffer that puts us just outside of the data&#x27;.<p>Corona might go exponential, but with the amount of effort being put into containment, I doubt it.
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radiorentalover 5 years ago
I appreciate the text below the graph was probably written by a non native English speaker but can someone please decipher this..<p>Question 2<p>However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your {{ ... }}.<p>(a) hands, give every bite a chance to keep your nose open<p>Question 3 Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains {{ ... }}.<p>(a) antifungal immunoprecipients, not salt; run an inflatable swimming pool<p>Question 4 Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and {{ ... }}.<p>(b) neck, especially when wearing your shoes<p>Question 7 Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw {{ ... }}.<p>(a) your hands up, arms, hands, face<p>Question 8 Clean and disinfect frequently touched {{ ... }}.<p>(c) tissues with dental iron
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dv_dtover 5 years ago
Despite the text implying it&#x27;s all an exponential curve forecast model, the wiggles seem to point to actual data being plotted too.<p>I wish they differentiated data points from forecast points in the actual chart. Text says 1&#x2F;29 update, but I think only the 1&#x2F;28 point seems to match news reports.
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sgt101over 5 years ago
Why do this when there are strong models from epidemiology and spreading processes? Like SEIRS?
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sxpover 5 years ago
This would be more informative if it had historical predictions. E.g, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;dataisbeautiful&#x2F;comments&#x2F;evlmqr&#x2F;oc_update_on_timelapse_of_wuhan_coronavirus&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;dataisbeautiful&#x2F;comments&#x2F;evlmqr&#x2F;oc_...</a>
jreyes333over 5 years ago
can someone please run this again, it&#x27;s been so accurate!
Zenstover 5 years ago
What TZ is being used for day cut-off? Details like that are important.<p>More so if you want a comparison with actualities like :- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com&#x2F;apps&#x2F;opsdashboard&#x2F;index.html#&#x2F;bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com&#x2F;apps&#x2F;opsdashboard&#x2F;index.h...</a> (which is EST as you can see - bottom right).
dethonover 5 years ago
WHO provides status report here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;emergencies&#x2F;diseases&#x2F;novel-coronavirus-2019&#x2F;situation-reports&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;emergencies&#x2F;diseases&#x2F;novel-coronavirus-2...</a><p>Seems to provide some useful data
adrianmonkover 5 years ago
This page layout is messed up. Too wide for my window, and somehow it defeats horizontal scrollbar. Things are cut off along both the left and right sides, and there&#x27;s no way (short of making the window bigger) to see them.<p>(xwininfo says my Chrome window is 1114 pixels wide.)
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zachguoover 5 years ago
This is crap. Data is outdated and off, the assumption of an exponential curve is way too simplistic.
ryanseysover 5 years ago
Relevant xkcd: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;xkcd.com&#x2F;605&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;xkcd.com&#x2F;605&#x2F;</a>
generalpassover 5 years ago
I think the only question at this point is will Coronavirus kill all of us or just most of us.
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