Probably nothing will happen. Nameservers for .ly are
dns.lttnet.NET, dns1.lttnet.NET, ns-ly.ripe.NET, auth02.ns.uu.NET, phloem.uoregon.edu. Of these only dns.lttnet.net and dns1.lttnet.net are hosted in Libya. If the dictator will have the local internet shutdown, he probably will not go to the lengths of also clearing all foreign DNS caches listed above.<p>Nonetheless I would be more careful in selecting a ccTLD to base my business on. Read, for example, about Gaddafi's dealings with Switzerland and you know which laws Libya follows at the moment.
I apologize if I missed something, but I think it's shamefully insensitive of the editors of that site to not even acknowledge that this issue is proportionally <i>irrelevant</i> in light of the fact that peaceful protesters are getting <i>shot to death</i> TO-DAY in Libya.<p><a href="http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23924674-libya-troops-shoot-24-dead-as-protesters-march-in-five-cities.do" rel="nofollow">http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23924674-liby...</a><p>Let's do a thought experiment for a moment and pretend there are some things more significant than web development and e-commerce, shall we?<p>yes I cross-posted.<p>EDIT: the author/editor there (Allen Stern) was gracious and considerate in his response to my complaint, and committed to trying to find a way to put the .ly domain issue in perspective in the article. Kudos centernetworks!
I do not believe that would affect DNS since it is distributed. The root zone file has five servers listed as authoritative for .ly<p><pre><code> LY. NS AUTH02.NS.UU.NET.
LY. NS PHLOEM.UOREGON.EDU.
LY. NS DNS.LTTNET.NET.
LY. NS DNS1.LTTNET.NET.
LY. NS NS-LY.RIPE.NET.
</code></pre>
I'm sure at least the uu.net and uoregon.edu servers are located in the US. Besides, your ISP DNS caches will stay warm for several days.
The same thing that happens when tuvala sinks beneath the waves - nothing.<p>It's more likely that the US gov might decide that Libya is a terrorist nation and shut down all the .ly addresses for you.
The same question showed up on Quora ... no reponse: <a href="http://www.quora.com/What-will-happen-to-http-bit-ly-links-when-Gaddafi-shuts-down-the-Internet-in-Libya-due-to-protests?q=If+Libya+Shuts+Down+the+Internehat+Happens+To+.ly+Domains%3F" rel="nofollow">http://www.quora.com/What-will-happen-to-http-bit-ly-links-w...</a>
Pro: People stop abusing and overusing ccTLDs. (maybe not?)<p>Con: Many major services go done, which causes a lot of unhappiness and headaches. (does it?)
Has anybody asked what happens to .com when the USA turns off their Internet? Having a .com address could be a huge risk to companies in other, more stable countries.