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“40% Chance of Pandemic” – Is Moody's Coronavirus Risk Assessment Malpractice?

1 pointsby craigdaltonabout 5 years ago

2 comments

mytailorisrichabout 5 years ago
What is the definition of &#x27;pandemic&#x27; used?<p>If we take the definition as being &quot;an epidemic occurring worldwide&quot; [1] then it is still arguable whether a coronavirus pandemic has started just yet since there is no reported cases of local transmission in Africa and in South America.<p>The definition of the term is crucial to discuss Moody&#x27;s report, or just to have any discussion on the topic, and it seems a bit light that the article&#x27;s author only brushes on it at the very end of the article, and uses a definition slightly different than the above (&quot;global spread&quot;).<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;bulletin&#x2F;volumes&#x2F;89&#x2F;7&#x2F;11-088815&#x2F;en&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;bulletin&#x2F;volumes&#x2F;89&#x2F;7&#x2F;11-088815&#x2F;en&#x2F;</a>
downerendingabout 5 years ago
No one knows. It might be mildly irresponsible of Moody&#x27;s to hazard a guess, but the author&#x27;s contention that that guess is obviously wildly low is just silly.