Groupon China will be a huge failure.<p>Groupon doesn't care a ton since they have boatloads of money, and they'll feel like they HAVE to take a shot since "China's a huge and growing market, blah blah blah" but it'll really be chalked up as a fat expense with not much benefit if any to the company.<p>Here's why China's different:<p>China, by and large, doesn't live for rampant consumerism. Walk the streets of Beijing or Shanghai (the 2 cities where this is most likely to matter in China) and you'll see that most shops are convenience stores and dingy eateries trying to eke out a living selling 2RMB ice cream pops and water, NOT "skydiving lessons! pottery classes! cosmetic dental procedures! maybe if i can drive some loss leader business in and call it an advertising cost, it'll be a good long run investment!"<p>Beijing and China are big cities, but most of the citizenry inhabit a tiny subset of the city. People go YEARS without venturing beyond a 1 mile radius of where they live. They rarely travel to other parts of the city to "try a new restaurant" or "hey, let's do pilates". For most people in China, everything they need is already there, so a groupon for something across town isn't appealing (most stuff on groupon isn't in close proximity to my house).<p>That said, even though <i>most</i> people are like this, even if some small %age of the population cares, (small %age) * (shit ton of people) == possibly profitable for Groupon.<p>China does have a lot of money and growing consumerism, but the gini coefficient is absurd. The median monthly income in Beijing is < 600 RMB (<USD$1000). People who have money can buy whatever they want and are relatively price insensitive.<p>Gift certificate and coupons aren't widely used in China. They exist, but they haven't been a fixture in the consumer landscape the way they have been in the US. Prices in China are a suggestion, and aren't even always written. The price for a widget is a function of how much the vendor likes you, the time of day, if the shop has to pay rent soon, and only sometimes, the actual cost to produce it.<p>I'm not going to speculate on counterfeit coupons as a problem, but I can't imagine that will help the cause.<p>This will fail because the intersection of businesses who want to use groupon + consumers who care about groupon is smaller than you'd guess for a huge population, buying and travel habits aren't conducive to the groupon model, there will be distrust of the brand and discount mechanism.