If too many people get this simultaneously we will overwhelm the healthcare system and this will switch from tragedy to horror. Everyone please do everything you can to avoid catching and spreading this until we have enough testing to track this and respond effectively.
> Although I still hope things will go differently, the experts I’ve spoken to think we are likely to face a global tragedy—hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid-19.<p>Even if it’s Sam Altman writing this, I wish he were more scientific instead of appealing to an anonymous authority.
I don’t think global traffic will decrease after this. It will keep on increasing after this downturn. To suggest people won’t travel unnecessarily is absurd as saying people won’t go out to restaurants post-covid-19. But restaurants will definitely get rocked by this.<p>The question is how will supply chains change. Will Apple really stick all their eggs on China again or will they change strategies. It probably depends on how much it costs them, ie its easier to keep everything in China and pay downtime costs when a new virus hits. Luckily Tim Cook is an expert in supply chains so he is perfectly positioned for this. Other companies probably aren’t and a few will make the wrong decision.
> I expect society will shift to a new normal pretty fast. Some of these elements—e.g., much less business travel, much less handshaking, much more handwashing—I expect to just stick. Some others—e.g., people working from home all of the time—I expect to not stick.<p>Why would people working from home not stick? Of all the enumerated changes, this one seems like the most likely to stick. At least for any worker that has no direct contact with clients needed, going to an office seems to be not that useful and a waste. As a remote worker myself for more than 10 years, I don't really see his point here. Anyone?
Similar outlook expressed by Naval Ravikant recently as well:<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0bPSseOlMc&feature=youtu.be" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0bPSseOlMc&feature=youtu.be</a>
A few things to consider:<p>- What is the chance that we develop an effective vaccine in say 6 months? In 18 months? (I'd love to see this question tackled by the Good Judgement project [1])<p>- Singapore appears to be doing a good job of controlling the spread of the virus. Perhaps they will soon require all travellers to provide documentation of a negative covid19 test result before entry to Singapore?<p>- How many <i>fewer</i> flu deaths will result from changes to travel and hygiene?<p>[1] <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" rel="nofollow">https://goodjudgment.com/</a>
There are quite a few universal vaccines in the works. The window for a truly horrific pandemic is closing.<p><a href="https://gcgh.grandchallenges.org/challenge/ending-pandemic-threat-grand-challenge-universal-influenza-vaccine-development" rel="nofollow">https://gcgh.grandchallenges.org/challenge/ending-pandemic-t...</a>
Is this a contest for how to convey the least amount of useful information in the space of 1 blog post? Why even waste the time? Just say "it's probably bad" and move on. I'm willing to bet you have little to no idea what cascading effects are impacting treasury yields. It's just a finance news talking point.
> <i>hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid-19</i><p>I find that a severe underestimate. Barring a miracle medical cure, given the death rates we've seen so far the number of deaths will be in the tens of millions.<p>It's not hard to estimate the number of deaths with a spreadsheet <a href="https://i.imgur.com/e86IcaK.png" rel="nofollow">https://i.imgur.com/e86IcaK.png</a>