Hey HN, in light of the current situation and the potential ordeal in the coming weeks, may I ask you instead of blaming whoever, let's find some solutions to help people?<p>As a Chinese, I read first hand materials from Chinese social media and friends on what life is like in a lockdown area. People there depends on deliveries for groceries and medicine, and occasionally restaurants take-outs. All those services, and a bunch of other services for small businesses are possible because of Wechat. Wechat is obviously not a popular option here in N.A. Is there something we can do to help both the people buy whatever they need via delivery and help local businesses?<p>In Wuhan when the entire family had to be isolated, no one was left to take care of family pets. I heard there's volunteer groups to take them but their capacities were very limited due to the short notice for them to take on such responsibilities. Can we be more prepared and maybe find a technology(-assisted) solution to this before it becomes a huge issue? I feel this will be an issue sooner rather than later because in N.A. it appears the current policy for mild cases is self-isolating, which will very likely infect the entire family.<p>Also in Wuhan during the lockdown many people felt so lonely, especially the older generation who can't use the internet effectively to stay connected to their families/rest of the world. Can we find ways to help people prepare for it psychologically? A lot of people will break medical suggested self-isolation because of the eagerness to stay connected to certain people/group. Instead of blaming them, can we help them find ways to stay connected yet in isolation?<p>I'm sure there are more things the mighty HN crowd can do to help others overcome this difficult time. Let's give it a try?
Here in Austria the government forbade any indoor gatherings of >100 people (outdoor >500), all universities and colleges are closed (except administration and research), including libraries and also museums. All schools and kindergartens will gradually close coming monday. That's more than 1.5m students/pupils against a total population of 8.8m. Nurses and doctors are being honed in from retirement. We completely locked down our borders to Italy. This is all very unprecedented.
Curious if anyone has tried to look on the bright side, and see where humanity will be in the long run.<p>1. Will take infectious disease more seriously<p>2. Will build out health care infrastructure to guard against future occurrences<p>3. Personal sanitation will be improved<p>4. People less likely to take risky behaviors like getting together in huge groups<p>edit: formatting
Crazy line of thinking:<p>I keep reading that because of how insanely transmissible covid is, this doesn't end until enough people have already had it that there just aren't that many people around you to infect anymore. It's been described as "trying to stop the wind". We can maybe slow it down but not stop it, and in the US since our response has been so weak, we especially shouldn't hope to stop it unless we're willing to totally isolate our entire families.<p>At the same time we're hearing that Italian hospitals are completely overwhelmed to where they are having to "choose who to let die" vs providing acute treatment.<p>So... (1) is it fair to say that focusing on prevention is pointless and we should just focus on survival which is largely about staying healthy and receiving care and therefore (2) (this is the crazy part) does it actually make sense to get it <i>now</i> before hospitals are overwhelmed and you might be unlucky enough to be sick with something else. Basically choose the most opportune survivable situation to get it versus letting the virus and bad luck pick when you have to fight this battle?<p>My gut tells me a bunch of people are going to crap all over this question but I'm not coming up with good counter-arguments off the top of my head.<p>(one other point, I live in SF, a large dense city, and I have two little kids that get everything so I'm maybe more fatalistic about the idea that I and my family will eventually get it either way)
The problem with pandemics is that they tend to grow exponentially. What people often forget about exponential growth is that it's actually very slow around t = 0.
Anyone following the social media and the news would’ve called the pandemic weeks ago.<p>I hope this will make people realize that we need to abolish centralized institutions in our highly complex world. They are single points of failure which introduce significant systemic risks.<p>CDC also dropped the ball on this one. In Washington state local authorities discovered the outbreak only because they defied federal regulators.<p>We need better organization at the local level, and we need it now.
Hopefully the school districts will now close.<p>Parents from every school districts in the Bay Area have collected thousands of signatures to close, but the <i>politicians</i> are not doing their job.<p>I was on call with Santa Clara county hotline and the school district and the standard answer I got was: Oh, the kids are at low risk and the numbers are low so we're not closing yet.<p>What they don't realize is that the kids can still be carriers and many teachers and parents are in the danger zone (age or underlying conditions)
There are a lot of folks on here asserting facts that are not supported by evidence.<p>The actual facts are this: we don't know what the CFR (case fatality rate) is. CFR is very difficult to accurately calculate, and varies widely with age, location, health conditions and even biological sex (so far, this seems to affect men a bit worse than women). The "2-3%" mortality rate that's being tossed around as fact, is most likely wildly inaccurate.<p>We don't know what the mutation rate is. Viruses tend to become <i>less</i> lethal over time, because the fatal strains kill the host and don't spread as well, which puts evolutionary pressure on the virus to become milder. Will that happen in this case? We don't know.<p>We don't know what the appropriate government response is. It's somewhere between welding people into their houses and doing nothing. Which is to say, who knows? Go overboard and everyone criticizes the government for crying wolf and wasting funds. Too little, and everyone criticizes the government for standing by and letting people die. It's a very difficult balance to strike, and I have a lot of sympathy for the folks who are in the position of making these decisions. They'll invariably get some wrong. Hopefully not too many.<p>IMHO, the best resource to learn about what we <i>do know</i> is the comprehensive Ars Technica article[1], which is frequently updated.<p>I would like to suggest
a) that folks stop claiming mortality rates in a panicky tone - because <i>we don't know</i>. and
b) that everyone who is reading folks claiming mortality rates and the upcoming apocalypse - reserve judgement until we have more information.<p><a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/" rel="nofollow">https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-compr...</a>
What sort of effect will this have on contracts that have Force Majeure clauses? That's a big unknown to me that could have a big recessionary effect.
Here's my question. As a technical community here.<p>How can we help?<p>i.e. I'm hearing about things like the ways for hospitals to report numbers to the CDC having just been set up.<p>This seems likely something any local technical person could help tackle.<p>Is there a place to go to find out how to help in any way possible?
I've been watching COVID-19 very closely since 2019 Dec it, I also witnessed how WHO responses to this Pandemic. If you were me, you will notice that WHO tried very hard to please China, rather than taking people's health into consideration. Many things they did:<p>- Advice not to ban flight to China after China locked down hubei lockdown (yes, many country trust WHO, like Japan and Korea)<p>- Met and praised Xi many times, admire how wonderful they did<p>- Keep down playing how serious the problem can be, and didn't advice any action<p>And recently, China suddenly donate $20M to WHO<p><a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-outbreak-china-to-donate-20-million-to-who-to-fight-coronavirus-report-2191858" rel="nofollow">https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-outbreak-china-t...</a><p>For more details, please watch this video<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5VGPYtbTk8" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5VGPYtbTk8</a>
What are HNers doing with elementary age school kids in CA / Bay Area? Seems inevitable that we are heading towards school closures en mass - reasonable to get an early start?
I leave this here for future reference: if we paint a worst case scenario, by the end of summer 2020, we may have 1M+ casualties in Germany alone.<p>It's hard to assess the global consequences of hundreds of thousands of flats getting vacant (increasing real estate supply in an overvalued market), labor shortages (which is high even today) and economic output reduction and the all the societal costs.<p>The only positive thing I see is an event, that unites the whole world - you will be able to relate to strangers - and this is actually a very good thing.
What people don't understand is that this can be stoppped so much faster if we just learn from china and do everything we can from the first moment. Gradual escalation of measures is useless.
It's worth noting that the US test situation is still going to be held up for a while due to a shortage of lab chemicals: <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212" rel="nofollow">https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing...</a>
Even though I rationally know it’s the right thing to do, I’m terrified about my daughter’s school closing and her and other students severely falling behind academically. I can work from home and watch her, but my spouse and I are not AT ALL equipped to home school her for a lengthy period of time. She is not a good self-learner and already struggles in some areas.<p>How should we be preparing for that? How are other people doing it who have to keep their children home and away from educational resources and teachers?<p>Edit: I’m getting mixed reactions to this. I’m not at all saying academics are more important than slowing the spread of the virus. But I see many comments calling for a complete shutdown of schools and very few saying that for many parents this is a legitimate source of hardship and anxiety, even if it’s the right thing to do.
My college just basically closed and hour ago saying everything is online now after spring break. Kinda nice for my easy classes. Sucks for my harder ones though.
Cross posting this from the other Pandemic thread since I thought it was interesting:<p>> d4mi3n<p>> What happens when the WHO classifies a pandemic? I imagine a number of processes and procedures come into effect--anybody know what they are?<p>> Hongwei<p>> My limited understanding understanding is that it automatically releases funding (from the WHO and other bodies) to help with the crisis. It should also trigger some catastrophe and pandemic bond clauses, meaning investors who bought these bonds will lose their money as it now goes towards relief funding.<p>Full thread: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22547349" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22547349</a>
16 days ago I wrote:<p>"<i>The reason the WHO is not declaring the coronavirus a "pandemic" is likely to avoid causing a panic at this point. They will only use the P-word once it is clear to everyone that it is one.</i>" <a href="https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1232094407584710656" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1232094407584710656</a> I was criticized for being "alarmist." But I was right. It was obvious to those of us who did the research (100+ hours reading peer-reviewed articles) that it was going to turn into a very big deal.
<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22538779" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22538779</a><p>Might be useful in case you or loved ones get infected.
I wonder if the internet "experts" here (and on other forums) who declared two weeks ago that "this is just overblown media hysteria and no more dangerous than the flu" will retract their claims now that the WHO has declared a pandemic? Or will they continue to bury their heads in the sand because denial is easier than acknowledging the seriousness of the situation?
Pointing to the last Sam Harris podcast [1]. He interviewed an infectious disease specialist, who like several other infectious disease specialists I heard before, isn't particularly concerned by this event. It is serious, but not alarming.<p>I should note that Sam Harris is rather on the worried side of the spectrum (and felt compelled to add a disclaimer at the begining).<p>[1] <a href="https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/" rel="nofollow">https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/</a>
Please keep in mind I might be wrong, I just want to understand things outside of the hype.<p>So I don't buy all the hype, can somebody tell me why i'm wrong? I keep hearing claims from brilliant people that 50-80% of the population could easily be infected.<p>Exponential growth is obviously the answer, and is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. This will change as more people become infected. Assuming even the most BASIC of measures are taken, (people washing their hands, not going to crowded areas often, not travelling etc.) this will probably stop exponential growth.<p>In China, 5 people have been infected for every 100,000 citizens, and the virus isn't exponentially growing anymore. But fine, maybe they took good measures.<p>In Italy, it's closer to 20 people per 100,000. Fine, four times as high, but still a TINY portion of the population. If you assume that their graph will ever look anything like China's, there is no way in hell more than 1% of the population will be infected. It probably won't come within two orders of magnitude.<p>In what god forsaken situation could even 1% of the US get the Coronavirus?<p>Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else. As long as you at most infect 1 other person, the exponential growth stops. This will happen way before 1% of the population is infected.<p>EDIT: I'm incorrect in the idea that people shouldn't worry about it, you should, but I believe that worrying about it will be enough to stop the exponential growth.
It seems to me that WHO waited for the stock market to tumble down first, before declaring this pandemic. This way, WHO may avoid getting blamed for the end of the bull market.
I just learned that testing kits are wrong almost 30% of the time, that means they are more likely to contribute to misinformation than not.<p>Therefore, just wait for it to happen?
As a US citizen very familiar with the US healthcare system, I'm very glad to be living in Canada during this epidemic where <i>everyone</i> has a Go To The Doctor Free card, literally. At times I am a bit surprised how readily Canadians will go to the doctor because they "woke up with a headache/back is hurting/eyes are red and itchy." Coming from the US it would <i>never</i> occur to me to go to the doctor for such "minor" complaints (to be honest, in the US I didn't go to the doc unless I was worried about immediate mortal peril or had an extremely long-running complaint, it's just too much trouble & they rarely help).<p>In this scenario, I think it's fantastic that Canadians are so quick to go to the doctor, and that everyone can do it on-demand. It means we're more likely here to catch more cases early & hopefully slow the spread. In the US, who is going to go to the doctor just because they have flu-like symptoms? And pay the 20, 50, 75, ?? dollar copay, wait in the line, then spend hours fighting with insurance later when they refuse to cover it? Yeah right. "May as well stay home," and this is going to cause tons more cases to go undetected & spread.<p>Canada is not perfectly prepared & is definitely making missteps (parade is still on in Toronto this weekend) but I predict the universal healthcare system will make the impact night & day different from USA.
By delaying the "pandemic" designation, the WHO has inadvertently cost more lives. They will strongly need to reevaluate their role and policies going forward, because this was a monumental process and leadership failure.<p>The messaging from the media (who are laypersons) and the politicians (who are economically motivated laypersons) has been that this is "just the flu". Weak messaging from both the WHO and the CDC has only reinforced this in the public's perception.<p>The WHO should have taken the decisive move to encourage greater caution by employing the "pandemic" label. That label comes with real power. While there is danger in crying wolf, it was evident months ago from the growth rate of the virus and the lack of quarantine procedures being put in place that this virus would reach the pandemic stage.<p>If the role of the WHO is to stave off pandemics and not just to monitor them, then elevating the risk profile of the virus should have been a top priority. Since people look to the WHO for guidance, their actions have direct impact to sequestration and bringing the outbreak under control.<p>Both the WHO and the CDC were too afraid to take early action. Their wait and see approach will ultimately result in more human deaths and suffering.
Yesterday I had the sudden realization that the US Republican Party is likely to be disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, but also seems to be avoiding taking precautions to prevent the spread.<p>Mortality and impacts seem to hit people over 50 the hardest, and that is where a majority of the Republican supporters come from.<p>It would be a curious footnote to have COVID-19 swing an election.
WHO is a complete joke, from praising China's lack of a response as ground-breaking and refusing to label this thing as a Pandemic until now. Trust in institutions is at an all time low because these institutions perform so poorly that most people dismiss them entirely (even if the advice is sound). I hope the world will learn it's lessons from this outbreak, so at least we can react faster next time.
This should have been done way earlier. WHO's excuse of not declaring it before was that it didn't reach Antarctica yet... which is ridiculous.<p>Had they raised alarm early on, more countries would have enforced proper procedures (look at South Korea). Instead, the thing spread around and starts impacting economy.<p>To me, WHO lost all credibility.
In preparation of stopping next pandemic, maybe we should have an international agreement like Paris climate change agreement. Like climate change and nuclear weapons this is an existential risk.<p>Yes, outbreak of zootonic diseases is still possible through widely consumed firm animals (chickens, pigs, or cows). But we can dramatically reduce the risk of next pandemic if we stop eating exotic wild animals like bats, which is not hard to give up. We may have been able to stop outbreak of COVID-19 on the first place if we had learned our lessons from SARS outbreak and stopping eating exotics animals.<p>EDIT: bat was used as an example. You can replace any exotic animals in place of bats, the point still stands. This video touches on the topic of outbreak of coronavirus: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54</a>
[EDIT] I greatly misjudged this audience. Fear is everywhere, but (at least) so is data.<p>WHO 10 March report: <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" rel="nofollow">https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...</a>