I see only doom & gloom comments here. Did people miss this positive note:<p>"On Thursday, China said it had just 15 new coronavirus cases and 11 deaths over the previous day."
See: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/coronavirus-news.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/coronavirus-news.ht...</a><p>China has controlled the problem. By taking drastic measures the rest of the world will too. In a couple of months the virus will be under control. The stock market will not recover as quickly as it crashed, but it <i>will</i> recover! How do I know that? Because crashes have happened in the past, and the world didn't collapse and disappear. A single company can collapse and disappear but not the entire stock market.<p>The only question is, how long will it take to recover. I think it will take 2 to 3 years. People who sold during the financial crisis of 2008 did not get to participate in the recovery that followed. There isn't an email or a notification that goes out when the market starts to recover. Attempting to time the market is futile. Staying out of the market will only mean that you will miss out on the largest portion of the recovery.
I have alot of unvested RSUs and my reasoning is that if 2008 repeats itself, there is a real chance I may get laid off and lose my RSUs. I donate most of my income and I have very little savings.<p>To protect myself, when I see sharp dips in the markets like this, I usually buy a put (option) just in case 2008 repeats itself. I bought a put last week for 2k (CMG) and now its worth 18k. If the markets keep falling, I may end up with around 30k, which is enough for me to pay my mortgage for a year and a half.<p>Maybe someone finds this helpful, maybe not. Be safe, play responsibly.
Deal with the pandemic. People won't invest again until they feel safe. That doesn't mean tax cuts or propping up shale oil companies. It means getting the deadly disease under some semblance of control.
For people who think that this is just automatically a buy because "prices have to go back up again, right?", it's worth looking at the Nikkei[1]. Note the peak in 1989 has still not been regained, and the market is about half that level now. Now is the US economy fundamentally less messed-up than Japan? Absolutely (in general). But every fall is not necessarily a buying opportunity even if you have a very long-term horizon.<p>[1] <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225?p=^N225&.tsrc=fin-srch" rel="nofollow">https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225?p=^N225&.tsrc=fin-sr...</a>
There is more bad news to come. Infections in US and EU, supply chain issues, local business impacts and bankruptcies, repo markets, etc.<p>Buy-the-dip and dollar-cost-average work but you don't need to go in blind. I advise waiting until there's actually repeat good news before you buy in.
Ecb is flooding market with money again. The dynamics of all this liquidity sloshing around is really hard to grasp. Sure everything is crashing around us but all that liquidity has to go somewhere, and since 08 it's basically just ballooned up the stock market and real estate. Where's the money sloshing off to next?
Here is my logic as a retail investor. The market has lost close to 20-30% from the peak. Will it regain the peak, for sure. By when ? Hard to predict. All I know is that the rate of climb need not be the same as the rate of the fall.<p>This virus will bring about significant collateral damage to the global economy. Already airlines, cruises are hurt. Soon, tourism and hospitality industry will be hit. Transport and logistics will be next followed by retail. So the cascading collateral damage is quite unpredictable at this time. Double this with plunging oil prices.<p>So unless you are willing to wait for 10+ years from now, it's unwise to invest a lump sum amount at once. If it were me, I will just invest small amounts periodically. Like every couple of weeks or so.
As someone who has very little grasp of global markets, I'd kind of assumed that bitcoin and other cryptos would rally if stock markets were falling under a global pandemic, but the cryptos seem to be tanking along with them. Is this down to reduced consumer confidence?
We’re tanking the world economy to try and stop the spread of a virus that cannot be stopped, and has a median death rate older than the expected life span. It’s so mild young people think they have the flu or a cold, and over 80% of people over 80 also recover.<p>The economic outcomes of the interventions could end up being worse than the disease, as people will lose their jobs, houses, and healthcare.
People are panic buying toilet paper for crying out loud.<p>Unless you are planning on retiring in the next few years, you should be looking at this as the buying opportunity of a life time. This is at least the 4th panic sell off I've seen.
Something ive wondered about these 'circuit breaker' halts...do they actually work to prevent mass sell off or are they just prolonging the inevitable?<p>Apparently not only can the powers that be halt trading momentarily, they can simply close the market altogether if trading is "bad" enough. How is that not manipulating the market? Why shouldnt we all be able to sell?<p>disclosure: Im firmly in the blue collar worker category. I dont own stocks.
I'm going to recycle advice I gave earlier this week [1] and say it's way too premature to consider this a buying opportunity. Short term dips followed by recoveries are the hallmarks of a bull market. We're now clearly in bear market territory. In a bear market, you need to be wary of "dead cat bounces" ie a short term rally followed by a steeper decline.<p>In 2008 this bear market lasted well over a year.<p>If you're already in the market, well you're kind of stuck now. Who knows how much further it will fall or even if it will? If anyone knew that, they'd be rich.<p>But this, as always, is a question of probabilities. In the short term there seems to be way more downside than upside potential. As much as it may have fallen in the last month, we're only now really getting back to the long term mean. Typically, during a market correction, the market oversells so further drops are entirely possible, even likely. Another 10-20% drop is (IMHO) completely realistic.<p>[1]: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527631" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527631</a>
Can anyone say why gold (GLD) is dropping so much too? I would've thought it would be a rough inverse of the market. It's still up over the last month (just barely), but down over the past several days.
officially into the bear market.. so far 8000 points down from its peak in a month, Now this may be good for the option sellers or biggies, regular investors should stay away (or use this to accumulate)
When's the lowest point? I did some rough fits with some stupidly simply logistic function:<p><a href="http://s9w.io/corona_2020-03-12.png" rel="nofollow">http://s9w.io/corona_2020-03-12.png</a><p>US point of highest increase according to this is in "2.6" days with a standard deviation of 0.76.
Does this bode well for the private equity technology sector? Intuitively it would seem that people will be looking for different investment vehicles, and here we are in startup land already working remotely, ahead of the curve. Of course the risk is higher and it could be wishful thinking.
The market has been overvalued and manipulated for years. Even Apple took out billions in loans for stock buybacks.[0] Boeing took out $43 billion in loans for stock buybacks[1] instead of investing in planes, QA and employees. Everyone knew this was a stock bubble caused by record low interest rates. COVID-19 is the pin that woke everyone up.<p>[0] <a href="https://9to5mac.com/2019/09/05/apple-is-borrowing/" rel="nofollow">https://9to5mac.com/2019/09/05/apple-is-borrowing/</a><p>[1] <a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/11/boeing-crashes-as-43-billion-in-past-share-buybacks-turn-into-existential-threat/" rel="nofollow">https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/11/boeing-crashes-as-43-billi...</a>
German stock market suddenly fell another 3 percent within a few minutes. I wonder if that was triggered by the circuit breaker in the US with traders trying to sell on other market places.
I'm trying to refinance my mortgage. Is now a bad time to put 20% of my savings into the market?<p>I've been waiting for this moment since 2018
I very much feel this could be another recession albeit a small one. It has very cascading effects throughout the world. Making everyone stay at home is effectively halting the world economy.<p>I still have a decent amount in my 401k and stocks, sold 70% of them incase shit hits the wall (I quit my job earlier this year to be an indie hacker)<p>Plus the upcoming election usually slows things down. So my prediction is until 2021 we’re deffo in for a ride.
My goodness.<p>I transferred most of my retirement savings out of stocks in early March, realizing a 9% loss. The market had a little upswing that day, so that worked out as well as possible for me, considering.<p>I was hearing advice from an acquaintance to just "ride it out".... yeah, no. After hearing about the inadequate testing and other half-measures taken by the Administration, I was convinced it would get much worse before it got better.<p>I had thought about cashing out on January 31st, because I figured Brexit would trigger an Europe-wide recession, which would lead into a worldwide recession. But I didn't get around to that (lazy).