The CDC's worst case estimate was 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead<p><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html" rel="nofollow">https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coro...</a>
There are 2 things happening at once that seem to be causing a rift in online discussions:<p>1. It seems like people are severely underrating the flu and always have been. Remember when we closed all restaurants and bars and suspended all sports events when the flu killed an estimated 1 million people in 1968-1969? No you don’t because society seemed to have shrugged that one off. Ditto for many years when the flu kills upwards of 600k worldwide [1]
2. The reported CFR (Case Fatality Rates) across different countries is all over the place causing a lot of panic and overstated mortality rates. Countries like Italy report almost 7% whereas in Germany and South Korea, the CFR makes Covid-19 look like no big deal (Closer to 0.1%). I suspect that’s because Italy is well under counting the true denominator, while countries like SK have tested thousands of people per day making their data much more comprehensive.<p>There’s something unique about this year’s outbreak that seems to resonate deeply with more people. Ultimately it’s definitely not “just the flu” but it’s closer to that then a guaranteed death sentence.<p>We may see more damage from the secondary effects (people losing jobs, runs on medicine and supplies causing people to die) than from the virus itself.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2#Hong_Kong_Flu" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3...</a>
[2] <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_data" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_cor...</a>
From How the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Compares with COVID-19:<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-10/how-coronavirus-compares-with-2009-s-h1n1-in-spread-and-Freaction" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-10/how-co...</a><p>For example: Why was H1N1 allowed to spread around the world more or less unchecked, while countries are going to far greater lengths to try to halt Covid-19? Why did the WHO call H1N1 a pandemic but not Covid-19? Isn’t 12,469 deaths a lot worse than the 26 that have been attributed to Covid-19 in the U.S. so far?<p>That last one is the simplest to answer: Covid-19 is near the beginning of its spread in the U.S., and thus cannot be compared with H1N1’s effect over a full year. If the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 is only 12,469 a year from now, that will likely be counted as a great success. The legitimate worry is that it could be many, many times higher, because Covid-19 is so much deadlier for those who get it than the 2009 H1N1 influenza was.<p>How much deadlier is still unknown, but of the cases reported to the WHO so far 3.4% have resulted in fatalities. That’s probably misleadingly high because there are so many unreported cases, and in South Korea, which has done the best job of keeping up with the spread of the virus through testing, the fatality rate so far is about 0.7%. But even that is 35 times worse than H1N1 in 2009 and 2010. Multiply 12,469 by 35 and you get 436,415 — which would amount to the biggest U.S. infectious-disease death toll since the 1918 flu. Hospitalization rates are also many times higher for Covid-19, meaning that if it spread as widely as H1N1 it would overwhelm the U.S. health-care system.<p>That’s one very important reason governments (and stock markets) around the world have reacted so much more strongly to Covid-19 than to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Another reason is somewhat more hope-inspiring. It’s that public health experts generally don’t think influenza can be controlled once it starts spreading, other than with a vaccine, whereas several Asian countries seem to have successfully turned back the coronavirus tide, for now at least.<p>Influenza can’t be controlled because as much as half the transmission of the disease occurs before symptoms appear. With Covid-19 that proportion seems to be lower, meaning that even though it’s more contagious than influenza once symptoms appear, it may be possible to control by testing widely and quickly isolating those who have the disease.
Gosh, the memories. Swine flu caused me to black out for a whole day and yet it seemed to bounce off other people as if it were the common cold.<p>That’s the biggest unknown about the new coronavirus disease for me: how ill am I actually going to get? Flu seems so unpredictable.
Why? Why is this relevant?<p>It seems the reason for this is to downplay covid-19. As if that outcome is what the whole world is freaking out over.<p>If anything you should see those numbers and ask yourself. What if it were exponentially worse?<p>That is also under the assumption that hospitals will not overrun. Which they will.<p>Don't plan on having any injuries this year.
COVID-19 is nothing like flu. There are still many unknowns about this virus. We are still not sure of its origins. We have no idea of the long-term effects of it. Some of those who "recovered" already in need to have lung transplants, many have severely damaged lungs. It is difficult to predict how many of those who recovered would live long and healthy lives.<p>If you are scared shitless and panicking - you should be. Protect yourself and your loved ones. Stay home.
I came across this tweet from Stephen Schwartz which he posted after the global health security team was disbanded by John Bolton:<p><a href="https://twitter.com/atomicanalyst/status/994696175575068672?s=21" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/atomicanalyst/status/994696175575068672?...</a><p>“When the next pandemic occurs (and make no mistake, it will) and the federal government is unable to respond in a coordinated and effective fashion to protect the lives of US citizens and others, this decision by John Bolton and Donald Trump will be why.”<p>And he links to the following article.<p><a href="https://t.co/iMSzopSRaI?amp=1" rel="nofollow">https://t.co/iMSzopSRaI?amp=1</a><p>The tweet is creepily prescient.
Coronavirus vs. swine flu (H1N1) – 2009-2010
Swine flu is the same strain of flu that wiped out 1.7% of the global population in 1918. It was declared a pandemic again in June 2009, and an estimated 11-21% of the world population contracted it.<p>Fortunately, the CFR is considerably lower than in the previous pandemic, with 0.1-0.5% of cases resulting in death. 18,500 of these deaths were laboratory-confirmed, but estimates are as high as 151,700-575,400 globally.<p>50-80% of severe cases were found in people who had underlying conditions such as pregnancy, asthma, diabetes, and cardiovascular disorders.<p>Compared to swine flu, coronavirus:<p>- is less widespread
- has caused fewer deaths
- has a higher CFR
- has a longer incubation period
- affects young people less<p><a href="https://about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronavirus-compare-to-other-outbreaks" rel="nofollow">https://about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronav...</a>