> 95% don’t need to go to the hospital<p>Including people who get at asymptomatically, maybe. Of people who get any symptoms, it's 15 - 20%.<p>And even if you're not in that 15 - 20%, you may still have permanent or long lasting lung and heart damage. Stay inside; your grandparents were asked to go to war for several years, you're just being asked to spend a couple months playing video games.
Just to check the source, these are the same slides (same Drive doc) tweeted by the listed author on the slides [1], who is a neurobiology and bioengineering professor at Stanford.<p>If you want an understandable, relatively short but info-dense writeup from a sober expert (there hasn’t been much of this on HN) this is nice.<p>[1] <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelzlin?lang=en" rel="nofollow">https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelzlin?lang=en</a>
I'd like to see more information on what to do if you are sick. Even younger people have gotten serious respiratory complications and it would be great to have information on how to care for yourself or your family short of heading to the hospital and contributing to the overwhelming of their staff.
There seems to be a second virus in the west: DMTMW - dont mention the M word - M like mask.
Purely looking at the data, the doubling of the infection rate in western countries is between 2-3 days.<p>Looking at Asian countries:<p>Japan: 8-9 days - <i>many</i> people wearing masks<p>Thailand: 10+days - <i>most</i> people wearing masks<p>China: negative values - <i>all</i> people wearing masks (not just in Wuhan) and handsanitizer everywhere<p>Cost for masks: 0.2$/person per day.<p>Let's hope that China can ramp up the mask and hand sanitizer production to supply the rest of the world asap, because the west doesn't have the capability.
I've added this to my list of resources for my blog audience, which I define as people who are curious about the science and have enough technical background to understand better than simplified popular explanations. My resource list is open source and takes issues and pull requests.<p>[1] <a href="https://raphlinus.github.io/covid/2020/03/14/covid.html" rel="nofollow">https://raphlinus.github.io/covid/2020/03/14/covid.html</a>
This analysis seems largely correct but for one thing, the author <i>assumes</i> that people who contract the virus will develop immunity that lasts long enough to bend the exponential growth curve as herd immunity develops.<p>(The curve will slow for other reasons as a sufficient number of people get infected such that there just aren't enough people who haven't been infected to be newly infected.)<p>I didn't see a source for that --- it seemed like an assumption --- and everything I've read suggests that this is a major unknown at the moment.<p>It's possible the author has a source that was not included. Either way, the author should either include the source or more explicitly take describe the epistemic status of that hypothesis and work through the consequences of it not being true.
I'm looking for information for those that provide patient care to covid patients. Infection rate, best practices, transmission to family (I live with a doctor providing care to covid patients...), etc. I've seen some anecdotes and single case reports that are concerning, but anything that is data driven like this will be helpful.<p>Also, where is non denatured ethanol readily available?
It's disingenuous to compare COVID-19 death with traffic death in Dr. Lin's presentation.<p>Here are the facts:<p>- The 30k U.S. traffic death count is for the ENTIRE YEAR. The 3k death in Wuhun happened in a matter of weeks(6-8 weeks).<p>- Given that U.S.'s inaction and squandered 2 months of lead time, we could see death count to be in the order of hundreds of thousands in U.S. alone.[1] This is NOT an estimate based on mathematical model, this is the estimate based on clinical data so far and virus's exponential growth rate. There isn't a national lock-down yet although some states are acting quickly, still 2 month late.<p>- Mass majority of the vehicular deaths are preventable because most of them are due to human error. COVID-19 is NOT preventable RIGHT NOW. Vaccines are at least 1-1.5 years away, no matter how fast track you spin it.<p>- Asymptomatic and family based clustering transmissions are making the lock-down less effective.<p>- We will get through this nightmare pandemic outbreak. But the economic depression is real and ongoing. Nobody knows what the long term effect could be.<p>[1]: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3" rel="nofollow">https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...</a>
How do we know the doubling time? That seems like the biggest assumption that we're not sure about. I've seen 1 week, 5 days, and even recently 3 days.
Why new diseases keep appearing in China<p><a href="https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54" rel="nofollow">https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54</a>