Remember pandemic2 flash game?<p>It was almost impossible to kill all humans without starting the infection from Madagascar. If you started from somewhere else Madagascar always had time to close the borders.<p>Lo and behold: Madagascar is one of the few countries without infections in Global Cases tracker. <a href="https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" rel="nofollow">https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...</a>
Bullfrog's classic game "Theme Hospital" had really great emergent vomit cascades.<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y69QTjTvp1w" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y69QTjTvp1w</a>
I am not a huge fan of this (or the WaPo) simulator, since I they seem to have chosen their models for the nice look (regular grid, bouncing balls) instead of for their accuracy.<p>While you can give people a rough idea of how different containment efforts will work, the models are so far removed from reality that I don't think that it really helps very much. Especially the WaPos'comparison' between different containment measures is IMHO borderline negligent without putting huge caveats in front of them.
If we're talking about disease-based games, I highly recommend Pathologic 2. Nothing realistic there in terms of modeling disease spread or cure mechanics, it's a very artistic and somewhat abstract game, but it conveys certain social realities of being in a contagion zone really well. Among other things, it show the importance of not collectively freaking out.
How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ?<p>I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)
You should totally add this to <a href="https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/" rel="nofollow">https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/</a>
Super fun: In the full model { 5%, 3%, 5, 3, 0.25, 5, 14 } led to a walking sprawl of disease in a healthy population that lasted a long time, turning down the incubation days by 2 made it slower. The rate of new infections eventually eventually tapered off because the virus encountered its own sprawl like a growing structure in Go. Seems like a STD.
We had a small demo to simulate pandemic outbreak at malls. The simulation was mostly for demonstration purposes to illustrate how distancing impacts spread, and potentially some ways to help mitigate it.<p><a href="http://socialdistance.ai/" rel="nofollow">http://socialdistance.ai/</a>
This is missing a couple things:<p>1) Cells should have random demographics such as male/female and age, and a virus could respond differently to them<p>2) The virus should have some capability for mutation as it spreads. (probability of changing variables from the initial configuration by some percent)
This stuff drives me crazy. I know the author of this (and of the linked Washington Post article) are trying to help people gain clarity, but it worries me that it only serves to accelerate fear and panic.<p>These articles are making it sound as if the exponential part of the curve will just continue on forever until it consumes the whole population. The (self-admittedly) overly simplified simulations aren't helping either.<p>Front this article ><p><i>And here's the kicker: even if we manage to "flatten the curve" enough to meaningfully space out the case load, we're still positioned to lose millions and millions of lives.</i><p>From the WaPo article ><p><i>This so-called exponential curve has experts worried. If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May.</i><p><i>Still, without any measures to slow it down, covid-19 will continue to spread exponentially for months. To understand why, it is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake disease through a population.</i><p>It will continue to spread exponentially for months!? Millions & millions of cases & or deaths? These are really sloppy and dangerous ideas to put in peoples head. They are just plain wrong, and not how pandemics play out in reality.<p>Here is what the CDC says about how pandemics spread (Under the 'COVID-19 Now a Pandemic' heading) <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fsummary.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summ...</a><p><i>Pandemics of respiratory disease follow a certain progression outlined in a “Pandemic Intervals Framework.” Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic.</i><p><i>Different parts of the country are seeing different levels of COVID-19 activity. The United States nationally is currently in the initiation phases, but states where community spread is occurring are in the acceleration phase. The duration and severity of each phase can vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response.</i><p>So no, it will NOT continue exponentially for months. Especially given the amount of isolation/ quarantine measures and canceling of large events taking place. I think it is reasonable to expect these measures will help us progress through to the deceleration phase faster.<p>Further-more, there is more and more evidence coming out suggesting the in China where it started, they have already entered the deceleration phase. This should be encouraging news for us in USA where it is just beginning.<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/newsfeed/2020/03/big-drop-china-coronavirus-infections-200316110905999.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/newsfeed/2020/03/big-dr...</a>
Very cool. Shouldn't the input transmission rate also be fixed for the last "test" ? It says to try to flatten the curve to reduce the % dead, but being able to control the transmission rate is cheating.
One of the first downloadable objects for The Sims 1 was a pet guinea pig, which literally had a downloadable computer virus.<p>If you neglected to feed and care for your guinea pig properly, it would bite you and give you a deadly contagious virus, which you could spread to other Sims by not following proper hygiene and getting enough rest, and even die from.<p>Kids who downloaded the binary Sims object from the internet and installed in their game were horrified that their beloved Sims dropped dead unexpectedly, but they learned a useful lesson.<p>Now deadly infectious guinea pigs are a tradition continued in later versions of The Sims!<p>The Sims Pie Menus<p><a href="https://medium.com/@donhopkins/the-sims-pie-menus-49ca02a74da3#d06b" rel="nofollow">https://medium.com/@donhopkins/the-sims-pie-menus-49ca02a74d...</a><p>>Viruses<p>>You can download this guinea pig object, and if you don’t care for it it will make this secret hidden virus object that gives you a cold, and has with it the animations and sounds of coughing and going (cough cough).<p>>Every once in a while it will just interrupt what you do and cough, and it will be bad for your health. And if you don’t get enough sleep, you have to get sleep to get rid of it.
This little program is literally a virus that runs and lives in your household and in your characters, and your characters can spread them to the neighbors, and they’ll bring them home to their families.<p>>Programmable Plug-In Objects<p>>Anyway, there’s quite a lot of interesting potential for what new plug-ins additions can do because of this programming languages.<p>>SimAntics Visual Programming Language<p>>There’s a built-in visual programming language called SimAntics, that is a control flow decision tree type of language. So the “Come and See” object, we’ll look at that.<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-exdu4ETscs&t=12m23s" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-exdu4ETscs&t=12m23s</a><p>Something Is Killing the Sims, and It's No Accident. By John Markoff, April 27, 2000.<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/27/technology/something-is-killing-the-sims-and-it-s-no-accident.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/27/technology/something-is-k...</a><p>Lethal guinea pig kills virtual people<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/746700.stm" rel="nofollow">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/746700.stm</a><p>The Sims 1: Guinea Pig Disease<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O5cgXuqhnA" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O5cgXuqhnA</a><p>The Sims / Illness / Guinea Pig Disease<p><a href="https://sims.fandom.com/wiki/Illness" rel="nofollow">https://sims.fandom.com/wiki/Illness</a><p>How to Get and Treat Guinea Pig Disease<p><a href="https://sims-online.com/how-to-get-treat-guinea-pig-disease/" rel="nofollow">https://sims-online.com/how-to-get-treat-guinea-pig-disease/</a><p>The Sims 4 My First Pet: SimGuruGraham Talks “Guinea Pig” Disease<p><a href="https://simsvip.com/2018/03/07/the-sims-4-my-first-pet-simgurugraham-talks-guinea-pig-disease/" rel="nofollow">https://simsvip.com/2018/03/07/the-sims-4-my-first-pet-simgu...</a>
Heh I published something very similar this morning. Looks like everyone has the same idea<p><a href="https://reactfordataviz.com/articles/corona-simulation/" rel="nofollow">https://reactfordataviz.com/articles/corona-simulation/</a>
I want to be able to tailor survival rate according to availability of hospital support - it seems like an obvious thing to include.<p>e.g. say that there are X hospital beds, and an X% survival rate for critical patients if they can get a bed.
Anybody know an open source version of something like Plague Inc: Evolved ?
I sure as hell am not playing computer games now. I'm going to get my crisis preparedness up properly and try to help my community. But it would be an interesting thing to have for the quarantine phase...