Here's the paper by Ferguson [1] referred to in the article.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...</a>