Hi, I am Marco and I live in a small town in Italy called Viadana (in Lombardy to be more precise). The exact location is: https://goo.gl/maps/UsUKshzvHGwVZ4nL6<p>In Lombardy, we are all following the same strict rules and we are forced to spend most of our time inside our house.<p>What I am unable to understand is why my small town has so many contagious, much more than a bigger city like Mantova.<p>The following is a table with all the nearby towns, with number of citizens and official contagious count:<p>Name # Population # Contagious
======= ============ ============
Mantova 49400 32
Castiglione 23700 29
Suzzara 21300 4
Viadana* 20150 64
Porto M. 16000 9
Curtatone 14900 11<p>Further details about surface and density can be found here:
https://www.tuttitalia.it/lombardia/provincia-di-mantova/50-comuni/popolazione/<p>Up-to-date contagious count:
http://www.altramantova.it/it/cronacaam/mantova-am/24775-emergenza-coronavirus-aggiornamento-i-contagi-salgono-a-456-in-provincia-di-mantova-impennata-di-casi-a-viadana-ora-sono-64-cresce-anche-mantova-che-arriva-a-32.html<p>Is there any explanation?
If not, which kind of data I should collect in order to be able to find out an answer?
I haven't looked in detail, so I can't give you a definite answer, but I offer you this maxim:<p>Random processes clump.<p>When you have things happening at random you'll find that there are clumps here and there with gaps scattered. If you look at something and find that it's well spread and reasonably even, then it's not random.<p>There will always be some places that have more than average, more than "expected", and there will be places that seem magically to escape.<p>So maybe there's no reason other than it's simply where you are, and it's mostly random. Maybe there is a reason, but really, there might not be.<p>Edit:<p>The comment[0] by gus_massa[1] is completely plausible.<p>[0] <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22609125" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22609125</a><p>[1] <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=gus_massa" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=gus_massa</a>
You may have read about the 31st patient in South Korea? He didn't have any symptoms himself and infected thousands of people, so they got a giant clump around him.<p>You may have one or a few people like that.<p><a href="https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/" rel="nofollow">https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/...</a> BTW.