Some excerpts (courtesy of Google translate):<p>The mean age of deceased and positive COVID-19 patients is 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, RangeInterQuartile - IQR 74.3-85.9). There are 601 women (30.0%). The figure 1 shows that the median age of patients COVID-19 positive deaths is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 80.5 years - patients with infection 63 years). The Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by age group. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection they are older than men (median ages: women 83.7 - men 79.5)<p>The Figure 4 shows the therapies administered in patients who died COVID-19 positive during hospitalization. ThereAntibiotic therapy was the most widely used (83% of cases), least used antiviral (52%), most rarely steroid therapy (27%). The common use of antibiotic therapy can be explained by presence of super infections or is compatible with initiation of empirical therapy in patients with pneumonia, pending laboratory confirmation of COVID-19. In 25 cases (14.9%) all 3 therapies were used.<p>The figure 5 shows, for the patients who died positive COVID-19, the median time in days, who spend from onset of symptoms to death (8 days), from onset of symptoms to hospitalization (4 days) and from hospitalization to death (4 days). The time elapsed from hospitalization to death was 1 day longer in those who were transferred to resuscitation than those who did not they were transferred (5 days against 4 days).<p>To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular,5 of these had fewer than 40 and were all male people aged between 31 and i39 years with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).
Some interesting data here.<p>- Mean age of 79.5 sheds light on Italy’s extremely high fatality rates; in essence, it’s the (very) elderly that are dying due to complications from viral pneumonia. Which begs the next question...<p>Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and <i>not</i> antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine?<p>Sure, these are “experimental” therapies but decent data out of China/South Korea shows these therapies work. Perhaps they found out too late?<p>- The younger fatalities (17) show multiple, serious co-morbidities and smoking is not listed; an assumption can be made a fair amount of these younger patients smoke. But again, an assumption.<p>- Almost 50% of patients showed 3 or more co-morbidities - this is high and important to note. 25% of patients showed 2 co-morbidities. Roughly 75% of patients had 2 or more co-morbidities (!).<p>- Sample size (2003) is good given their current 3,500 fatality numbers.<p>Not a medical doctor but a few things I’m struggling to figure out:<p>- How did so many elderly get infected? Did the disease simply spread in close quarters where many elderly live? Elderly folks aren’t necessarily out and about drinking espresso and touching surfaces yet alone having younger asymptomatic carriers cough on them.<p>I wonder if Italy is similar to a Kirkland, Washington situation. High density of elderly folks spreading infection.<p>It’s obvious that SARS-Cov-2 is highly, highly contagious but it’s interesting how we’re seeing these somewhat “bomb” explosions of infection: Wuhan > Daegu > Kirkland > Lombardy > NYC next.<p>Sure, quarantine works but the rate of new infection stays rather localized and then just annihilates everyone around it.<p>Perhaps it’s a viral load issue; viral load increases exponentially the more we have infected. Why you see doctors and nurses infected / critical and dying even with full PPE.<p>Let’s hope the Italians figure out a way to get this curve to fall of ASAP. Hoping they have a similar effect to Wuhan’s curve and just drop down rather than flatten.
Summarizing the deaths, by age distribution is quite telling (page 4):<p>- no deaths under 30<p>- Less than 1% of deaths under 50<p>- less than 4% of deaths under 60<p>- 87% of deaths above 70<p>This disease is incredibly dangerous for our elderly, and isolating them to prevent infection should be our top priority.
I found page 3 most remarkable: 48% of those who die of covid-19 in Italy also suffer from three or more other diseases (or did recently), and 99.2% suffer from one or more.
There is a summary of this by Bloomberg news: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...</a>
It's unfortunately not yet translated but I think the graphs and tables are clear enough and can easily be translated by Google Translate.<p>Personally my surprise is that it seems half of those deceased people did not receive any kind of antiviral therapy.
How many were so sick that they would have died anyway?<p>I read that they were testing dead people and the theory was, their count was so high because they would add people to it that would have died anyway but just happen to be infected right before their death.<p>Edit: I think this is an interesting question. Why do Italy, France and Spain have such high death ratios? Are they measuring more than needed or are the others measuring not enough?
This is encouraging for healthy youngsters BUT age and health are also the criteria for receiving treatment in Italy at the moment. As the epidemic grows the categories of people that get ventilation decrease and the deaths will get younger and healthier.