What future scenarios can we hypothesize? how will people behave in everyday life? how will the scenario of travel and consumption change? I am very interested to hear your opinion.
What we are seeing is an unprecedent level of supply and demand shock. What this means is that there is going to be much lesser spending and businesses making much lesser money.<p>If this reflexive loop kicks in people have lesser disposable income and a lot of people will get unemployed ( we can see the early signs in the hospitality and airline industry already)<p>If this continues, then there will be foreclosures. Asset prices are going to go down. We will enter a recession. If Banks stay alive and liquidity is pumped into the system by the Fed, then we could see a reversal, if the shock persists for longer and finding the vaccine takes more time, we could head towards a depression.<p>Obviously there are tons of moving parts and there is no way to predict the future, but its likely that we will have a recession. There is a low probability that this will head to a depression because the Fed has been printing loads of money, but if this stops working, they have no more tools in their arsenal to revive the economy.