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Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

31 pointsby spragueabout 5 years ago

17 comments

loudmaxabout 5 years ago
The trouble with an article like this is that it mixes well reasoned arguments with nonsense. The economic cost of closing schools and shutting borders is real, especially as the epidemic continues for months. The trouble is that the article downplays the seriousness of covid-19. A mortality rate of 0.6% means nearly one million deaths if covid-19 spreads to half all Americans.<p>The article points to South Korea as an example of a success story in the fight against covid-19. South Korea immediately began widespread testing for covid-19 as soon as infections were detected. They trace cases and isolate people suspected of having become infected. South Korea has universal healthcare, ranking first among OECD countries for access. All of this is pretty much the opposite of we&#x27;ve been doing in the US, which is why a lot of people here are worried about what&#x27;s going to happen in the next few months.<p>It&#x27;s reasonable to ask whether school closings or shutting borders are the right policies. But we should be discussing alternative means of containing the virus and we need to be clear what we&#x27;re up against.
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sgt101about 5 years ago
&quot;Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal.&quot;<p>That&#x27;s 180&#x27; from what I believe and have experienced repeatedly in industry settings. Transforming the numbers to meaningful data is <i>always</i> fundamental to success. For example here the number of cases confirmed is determined by the testing approach and process - you must know that to be able to make meaningful comparisons (there are many other aspects to epi data but that&#x27;s just one).
drummerabout 5 years ago
This article has been censored by Medium. Can&#x27;t say I&#x27;m surprised as it goes against the official hysteria promoting big pharma narrative. This is what I now get:<p>410 This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.<p>--<p>It is archived here: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;yuaUq" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;yuaUq</a>
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tjr225about 5 years ago
Unrelated - is there a term for exhaustion of opinions?<p>I swear you could go into any HN comment thread related to this outbreak and it breaks down to; Person A saying X is going to happen and then Person B saying Y is going to happen and then Person C saying that No! Z is going to happen!<p>How did everyone get so opinionated about something so unpredictable and unprecedented? In any case I think we should all calm down regardless of how dangerous this situation is. Stay sane, everyone!
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xdandemanabout 5 years ago
Funny How many caught the flu? and is testing positive for Corona the same as having Ebola or Leprosy ? or will you be sick for a week and recover like we normally do from the flu&gt;? Keep in mind more people have died in the U.S. from seasonal, common flu than has died World Wide from this &#x27;epidemic&#x27;. (Which started in the most populous country so listening to the pundits it should have had 100s&#x27; of millions deaths!) How is that possible?
nabla9about 5 years ago
Maybe it&#x27;s not a good idea to upvote these layman ramblings and influencer opinions.
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hcarvalhoalvesabout 5 years ago
Half of the article is about making numbers relative (active&#x2F;total cases, cases&#x2F;population, etc).<p>But death toll is counted in absolute numbers. No one will think 1M deaths is victory just because this is 1% of whatever. People are right to be hysterical, we have tough times ahead.
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wwwestonabout 5 years ago
&gt; Still, there is a massive blindspot with this type of graph. None of these charts are weighted on a per-capita basis.<p>Since this is an exponential phenomenon, I don&#x27;t buy that &quot;per-capita&quot; matters (on top of the fact that he seems to be pulling in numbers as a snapshot in absolute time rather than windowed from initial cases).<p>If the numbers double every 5 days, the US can have 16 times the population of some other smaller country and be only 3 weeks from the same per capita effects.
hancheabout 5 years ago
Well, Farr&#x27;s law is all about the general shape of an epidemic, plotted as number of infected people against time. It does not say anything about the location or height of the peak. The devil is in those details.
notacowardabout 5 years ago
Starts well enough, but gets more questionable in the middle and downright risible at the bottom. Claims to be more objective, empirical, etc. than others are unrelated to <i>actually</i> being more objective, empirical, etc.<p>&gt; driven by data from medical professionals and academic articles<p>...as filtered through one person&#x27;s understanding and biases. Often this results in a very different picture than perusal of the original source material would.<p>&gt; I’m most known for popularizing the “growth hacking movement” in Silicon Valley<p>That&#x27;s an anti-qualification.<p>&gt; Rank ordering based on the total number of cases shows that the US on a per-capita basis is significantly lower than the top six nations<p>This is right after he got done explaining why total number of cases of useless. So <i>why is it here</i>? Because it suits the overall theme of minimizing the threat.<p>&gt; Daily growth rates declined over time across all countries regardless of particular policy solutions<p>Sounds compelling, but is it true? Note that the first chart is from SoberLook, which is definitely not one of the top-tier sources cited at the beginning of the article and not even one of those supposedly cited at the bottom (Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins). Bit deceptive, that. I&#x27;ll leave it to you to figure out what kind of source SoberLook is. Oh, and we&#x27;re using the &quot;losing metric&quot; of total reported cases again. Doesn&#x27;t everyone know by now how fraught that is? The author certainly does.<p>The second chart already shows a very different story. There&#x27;s no legend (which is suspicious) but it&#x27;s clear that many of the lines do <i>not</i> flatten out as would be necessary to support the author&#x27;s claim.<p>&gt; Both the CDC and WHO are optimizing virality and healthcare utilization, while ignoring the economic shock to our system.<p>We&#x27;re starting to see a hint of where the author wanted to go with this, probably before one word was written.<p>&gt; According to WHO’s COVID-19 lead Maria Van Kerkhove, true community based spreading is very rare.<p>Hm. <i>Where</i> did van Kerkhove say this? Why is there no specific citation, as for more convenient factoids?<p>&gt; The data from China shows that community-based spread was only a very small handful of cases.<p>Same as above. No citation. And does the data actually show that?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;2019-ncov&#x2F;prepare&#x2F;transmission.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;2019-ncov&#x2F;prepare&#x2F;transmissi...</a> &quot;The virus that causes COVID-19 seems to be spreading easily and sustainably in the community&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;docs&#x2F;default-source&#x2F;coronaviruse&#x2F;situation-reports&#x2F;20200313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.who.int&#x2F;docs&#x2F;default-source&#x2F;coronaviruse&#x2F;situati...</a> &quot;Community transmissionis evidenced by the inability to relate confirmed cases through chains of transmission for a large number of cases,&quot;<p>Don&#x27;t let the digression about aerosols (which nobody has claimed to be a primary mechanism for spread of COVID-19) fool you; the experts, including those included in the author&#x27;s appeal to authority at the beginning, seem to have very different beliefs than those he presents.<p>&gt; Released on March 10th, one study mapped COVID-19 virality capability by high temperature and high humidity.<p>One study. Minimizing again. It&#x27;s a very pretty temperature graph, which doesn&#x27;t actually prove <i>anything</i>. If you follow the link, you&#x27;ll see that it was actually limited to China, which might not tell us much about anywhere else. What we actually know about the temperature sensitivity of coronaviruses is that they&#x27;re remarkably <i>stable</i> up to about 37°C, and infectivity only starts to decline above that.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pubmed&#x2F;14631830" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pubmed&#x2F;14631830</a><p>&gt; Children and Teens aren’t at risk<p>This does seem to be true, or close to it, for once. But why only talk about the lowest-risk groups? Why not people in their 20s, or the high-risk folks at the other end of the spectrum? Minimizing again.<p>This is getting long, so I&#x27;ll stop dissecting each little piece. You get the idea. Let&#x27;s skip to the end, where the agenda becomes clear.<p>&gt; Local governments and politicians are inflicting massive harm and disruption with little evidence to support their draconian edicts.<p>Very objective choice of words there. Inflicting. Draconian.<p>&gt; Every local government is in a mimetic race to one-up each other in authoritarian city ordinances<p>Attributing motive.<p>&gt; The COVID-19 hysteria is pushing aside our protections as individual citizens and permanently harming our free, tolerant, open civil society<p>More appeal to emotion, and expressive of the author&#x27;s real priorities. Don&#x27;t get me wrong, politicians taking advantage of the situation to extend authoritarian power is a real and valid concern. But no way in hell should it be our <i>first</i> concern. It certainly doesn&#x27;t justify twisting the facts and minimizing the threat that disease poses to the most vulnerable - not just the old but also the homeless, the already ill, etc. Those people are not expendable to &quot;Support business and productivity&quot; as the author puts it in a heading.
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wrsabout 5 years ago
Great, so we just make sure there’s lots of testing being done so we can focus our efforts, and hugely expand our health care system to take care of that tiny 1% of the population. And we’ve got a whole week or two to do it. So why’s everyone so worked up about it?
andbbergerabout 5 years ago
Now is the time for extreme caution. We can laugh about how it was an overreaction later.
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cjbprimeabout 5 years ago
Really sick of marketers acting like their &quot;I write viral Medium posts!&quot; experience is an epidemiological qualification.
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artsalamanderabout 5 years ago
The very first chart this guy shows, and then rubbishes, is from the Financial Times. The methodology behind the chart and why they show the data the way they show it is explained pretty clearly on his twitter feed.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;jburnmurdoch&#x2F;status&#x2F;1241092187577819137?s=20" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;jburnmurdoch&#x2F;status&#x2F;1241092187577819137?...</a><p>I&#x27;ll probably do myself a favour and stop clicking on coronavirus medium links
wbronitskyabout 5 years ago
This is an article written by a “growth hacker” who knows literally nothing about public health, claiming to explain public health to all of us.<p>This crap shouldn’t be on HN. This forum has become next to useless, slowly, then all at once in the last few weeks. I would assert that this community could do better, but at this point maybe it can’t.
cameldrvabout 5 years ago
This is a bad article.
IAmEveryoneabout 5 years ago
This is bullshit. As but one example of the guy’s cluelessness: the curve of (new) infections over time <i>is not a bell curve</i>. The shape is roughly similar. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the normal distribution.
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