It seems to me mathematically certain that it will.<p>A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.<p>337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.<p>14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.<p>So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right?<p>I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.
Nytimes article:
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coronavirus.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coron...</a><p>Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus:
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351" rel="nofollow">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351</a>
I think we will only have a definite answer by May/June for this question. The close cousin of nCov, the SARS Cov-1, had started retreating back in June 2003.
An unscientific observation about "summer" is in the west, schools aren't in session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses.<p>I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.<p>Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?