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Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a black swan event?

2 pointsby tylordurdenabout 5 years ago

2 comments

haspokenabout 5 years ago
No<p>From <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Black_swan_theory" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Black_swan_theory</a><p>Based on the author&#x27;s criteria:<p><pre><code> 1) The event is a surprise (to the observer). 2) The event has a major effect. 3) After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. </code></pre> It fails on the surprise aspect. Pandemics are expected. Failure to prepare for them does not make it a surprise.<p>List of epidemics from wikipedia: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_epidemics" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_epidemics</a>
PaulHouleabout 5 years ago
Yes