Hey folks, I'm one of the authors of the post. Would love to hear people's thoughts, and happy to answer any questions :)<p>If you liked this, then I'd definitely recommend reading "The Flaw of Averages" by Sam Savage. It talks about this stuff in a lot more detail, and the style is very entertaining — not at all what you'd expect from a statistics book.
I like the concept. Who is this targeted at though? Having been an analytics mgr at couple of ad agencies my common questions were...<p>Given current impression share for my campaigns, what would incremental spend do for CPA and position?<p>What would be the expected CPA to move from avg position of 1.8 to 1.4<p>Can I tie CRM data to get value of leads/opportunities and optimize for that?
too bad casual.app is so tightly coupled to the google ecosystem, even enough to say it's optimized for chrome (terrible for privacy/confidentiality). we really need deeper and wider understanding of decision-making under risk and uncertainty (see over-reaction to covid by many, under-reaction by some). tooling like this can help.<p>it's hard to evaluate the modeling capabilities from a few pages and blog posts. how does it compare to crystal ball on excel, for example?