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Contact Tracing in the Real World

118 pointsby nmjenkinsabout 5 years ago

10 comments

redis_mlcabout 5 years ago
Going a step beyond the info in the blog post, there&#x27;s a documentary on Youtube showing how in S. Korea, there are apps to see the paths of corona patients so you can avoid those areas:<p>Covid-19 in S. Korea @5:13<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=BE-cA4UK07c" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=BE-cA4UK07c</a><p>My opinion is those apps work because S. Korea remembers SARS-1 (2002&#x2F;2003), and people there are cooperative. Also, if you do full contact tracing early enough, there aren&#x27;t an overwhelming number of patients like NY.<p>S. Korea is the only country that literally &quot;flattened the curve.&quot; See unbelievably flat graph @6:50 in link above.<p>(S. Korea had the same problem as Toronto with SARS-1, where the hospital doctors and nurses were wiped out by the first few cases. In S. Korea, it was the first SARS-1 patient wandering around town like a cruise missile to several doctors and hospitals that spread the disease, as nobody identified the magnitude of the problem.)<p>&gt; And how will things work with an orderly supermarket queue, where law-abiding people stand patiently six feet apart?<p>In the SF Bay Area, here&#x27;s how social distancing works at grocery stores:<p>1) one entrance&#x2F;exit with security guards at the door<p>2) queue outside with shoppers 6&#x27; apart<p>3) only 50 people allowed in at one time, but distance is not enforced in the store except 6&#x27; in checkout lanes. However, American grocery stores are large, so the spirit is being followed. Recently, I&#x27;ve seen saran wrap over POS terminals. Bank ATMs also need that prophylactic. :)<p>4) shoppers are responsible for washing their carts and hands, which is a gap.
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slothtropabout 5 years ago
I&#x27;m disappointed that some I&#x27;ve come across are trying to cast SK&#x27;s measures as tyrannical, as though it&#x27;s not authoritarian to shut down the economy and force everyone to stay home. Cooperating with contact tracing is a lesser temporary loss of freedom than not working. It&#x27;s not even clear to me to what extent it helped, all the articles I&#x27;ve read repeatedly state that early testing in itself has been the deciding factor. In theory then, if the infection rate were temporarily quashed, couldn&#x27;t this be implemented?<p>And both sides of the political spectrum are behaving this way, the right-wing downplays the risk and postures that a lockdown will lead to a worse outcome, and many dems pretend a lockdown is the only thing that could have realistically been done, looking to SK like &quot;oh, well they&#x27;re draconian, that could never happen&quot;.
rubidiumabout 5 years ago
Here’s the real deal. I’m quite privacy conscious. Hate tracking of any type, esp. for some mega corps profit.<p>That said, I’d gladly install a decent security verified app that tracks me for the next 3 months. I’d be happy to self isolate again with my family (as we’re doing now) if I came in contact with someone. But the big issues are:<p>- ensure tracking is available only to those who need it and doesn’t get shared with any commercial interest.<p>- my employer supports WFH or short term paid sick leave (maybe with gov’t assistance) for those 14 days.<p>Get those two things and I think the majority of the US population would opt in. That would be sufficient.<p>Sure there’s some risk that people are infected who won’t opt in. But that opt in system of “we’re all in this together” is much better than a forced gov’t tracking system.
kiwidrewabout 5 years ago
I applaud the efforts to investigate whether smartphone technology can be a useful aid in the contact tracing process.<p>Privacy aside, it seems to me that there are two main issues that Bluetooth-beaconing-smartphones will struggle to solve:<p>1. Determining whether two smartphones &quot;hearing&quot; each other&#x27;s beacon constitutes contact between the owners of those smartphones. (The blog post we&#x27;re discussing brings up several examples, and the &quot;orderly supermarket queue&quot; of shoppers patiently waiting outside while observing a 2m distance could generate a massive number of false positives.)<p>2. Ensuring widespread adoption. If only 1&#x2F;6th of the population is participating (which are the numbers Singapore is seeing so far) then the chance that an encounter between two people is captured by the app is 1&#x2F;36th -- far too low to be of much use. There is also an upper limit to adoption because not everyone owns a smartphone or has a device which would be compatible with the contact tracing app.
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dchyrdvhabout 5 years ago
Apple, Google, Facebook already track everyone and everything they can: all these gps, wifi, Bluetooth and even ultrasound trackers built into smartphones exist only for one purpose. After all, they are in the business of building accurate user profiles and selling ads to them. What they do need is ability to do this openly, so they&#x27;re trying to leverage the epidemics to legalize their business (ATM it&#x27;s in the grey area: kinda legal, but amoral).
pintxoabout 5 years ago
Some interesting thoughts:<p>&gt; First, it isn’t anonymous ...<p>I believe this is a miss understanding. We loose anonymity once someone is diagnosed, there is no way around that. But we should not skip on anonymity for everyone else. Else this whole project is doomed by the onset as we are simply building a massive 1984 style infrastructure.<p>&gt; Second, contact tracers have access to all sorts of other data such as public transport ticketing and credit-card records ...<p>Which is debatable, but not a major problem as long as this is a largely manual ad-hoc process regulated by law and so expensive to execute that we only do it during emergency situations. It&#x27;s totally different once we start building systems and processes around this to make it cheap and it ends as the new normal.<p>&gt; Third, you can’t wait for diagnoses. ...<p>Surely a problem we need to improve upon. Likely a major logistics problem? Maybe something we should ask the military to take a look, after all logistics is something they might have an idea how to do right.<p>&gt; Fourth, the public health authorities need geographical data for purposes other than contact tracing ...<p>Why would this need to be part of contract tracing? Currently this is done based on confirmed cases. Surely they are largely localized, especially since the stay-home orders.<p>&gt; Fifth, although the cryptographers – and now Google and Apple – are discussing more anonymous variants of the Singapore app, that’s not the problem. ...<p>I agree, trolling, denial of service and school kids are going to be a problem. Could likely be solved by adding a formal gate for infected. Signing the test result with a public-private key scheme should do the trick to prevent any non-legitimate results being used to trigger events.<p>&gt; Sixth, there’s the human aspect.<p>Interestingly I would have said this is the technology aspect. How many contacts will we miss because bluetooth low energy is not up to the job?<p>&gt; Seventh, on the systems front, decentralised systems are all very nice in theory but are a complete pain in practice as they’re too hard to update. ... Relying on cryptography tends to make things even more complex, fragile and hard to change.<p>Seems solvable, considering we are talking about mobile apps, mostly always online, managed through central app stores and servers? Sounds doable.<p>&gt; But the real killer is likely to be the interaction between privacy and economics. If the app’s voluntary, nobody has an incentive to use it, except tinkerers and people who religiously comply with whatever the government asks.<p>Tend to agree, although we have seen quite some adherence to sensible rules the last couple of weeks. Maybe we will be surprised by our fellow humans, maybe not.
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jfosterabout 5 years ago
If I go outside, I would like to have an app that does this on my phone. My &quot;right to privacy&quot; isn&#x27;t worth putting other peoples&#x27; health at considerable risk for.<p>There isn&#x27;t even a scenario I could imagine where one of these apps would do something that I would consider a severe infringement of my privacy.<p>A few million lives may ultimately hang in the balance, so there ought to be a very compelling argument against not putting these apps into practice and getting ahead of coronavirus.
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tcdabout 5 years ago
Not trying to be cynical, but to me this seems to be a way to get the mass public &quot;okay&quot; with contact tracing. Then somehow they &quot;mysteriously&quot; manage to get more accurate information from other sources (location, wifi beacons, data sharing etc).<p>But they&#x27;ll just say &quot;the information is only from this source, we pinky promise!&quot;.
hcurtissabout 5 years ago
When did “flatten the curve” become “eliminate transmission”? We have abundant hospital capacity remaining nearly everywhere up in the US. It seems likely we can begin moving toward herd immunity significantly more quickly by relaxing social distancing standards and quarantining sensitive populations, all while remaining below the horizontal line. It’s not worth surrendering civil liberties, something we’ve sacrificed many lives to preserve.
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buboardabout 5 years ago
I think the author is correct that people are missing the forest here. I know plenty of people that would have no problem with public tracing of patients (myself included), but it wouldn&#x27;t be effective in stopping the virus here. And not because the app&#x27;s uptake would be small - people are dying to <i>do something</i> , anything, so they &#x27;d download it. Maybe singaporeans did not download it because they feel already protected enough by their health system, but westerners feel so unprotected by them that they buy TP by the metric ton.<p>S.Korea and singapore&#x2F;hong kong, those are densely populated areas&#x2F;cities with specific movement patterns among people and enough tehcnology infrastructure to know what do something useful with the tracing information. In some western cities, tracing would end up giving people constant alarms that they might be infected, and that information wouldn&#x27;t really be actionable or at least you coulnd&#x27;t trust that people would act on it. Western cities have no memory of other plagues either.<p>Perhaps goverments should reward distancing and testing instead of punishing offenders. Perhaps even pubs could open, provided they serve the same group of 10 people every monday. Western cities will need to figure out their own policies until a cure is found, and they have to reflect their own character - you can&#x27;t just copy asian policies praying that they work.