Disclaimer: 2 Week stock market experience<p>As many friends in WhatsApp groups talk about stocks, I recently installed Robinhood to see how it feels to buy and trade. I covered reading some internet resources on the basics. I see the increasing stakes from people on TSLA, which is doing wonderful (I think), at this point in time. While stocks, unlike Cryptocurrency, is a long term gamble, what percentage of growth do you see in the next 15 years?<p>"In 2018, the U.S. automotive industry contributed 2.7% to U.S. gross domestic product. That's $545.4 billion out of the total $20.5 trillion produced." [1]
Considering that stat, will TSLA ever be a stock like an FB, AMZN or AAPL or MSFT in comparison over a 15-year duration.<p>I often see top investors calling Tesla as a Software company because of its "powerful-vision-AI models", which might be, isn't the stock concerning the revenue which is proportional to car sales? Do you have a reason why Tesla will not offer its core AI models as a service to other manufacturers? If they do so, will it be in the top 10 highest revenue companies?<p>[1] https://www.thebalance.com/economic-impact-of-automotive-industry-4771831
The thing about Tesla, is that, to me, stock in them would feel like a consolation prize for not being able to own part of SpaceX.<p>I can't see the future, and I can't see what is special about Tesla. It's clear in hindsight that the existing automakers have had difficulty competing, but I can't put my finger on what makes them different, nor do I like the idea of a car company that operates like Apple.<p>By contrast, it's obvious why SpaceX is different than any other aerospace company, but the hoi polloi can't own a piece.
In the next 10 years, new car sales are likely to shift to almost entirely electric. Based on the history of disruptive innovations, there is good reason to believe that established automotive companies will fail to make that shift in technology. (This despite top down efforts at many of them to make it happen. Based on history, such top down efforts are common in companies facing disruptive innovation, and only rarely succeed.)<p>TSLA is a bet on whether that happens, and whether Tesla is one of the winners. If existing automotive companies can survive, or if the winners are electric car companies in places like China and India, then Tesla will go to 0.<p>The depth to which software is embedded in Tesla is a competitive advantage for them. But a future where they are pure software is a future where their stock price is unjustifiable - they have to be building and selling cars.