10 prisoners in Ohio have now died of COVID, 1 from the prison mentioned in this article and 9 from another prison where most prisoners are infected: <a href="https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2004-21-2020%201313.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%...</a>
If prisoners had a single test, and the false negative rate of the test is 25%, or if 25% had recovered, that would mean nearly 100% were infected. That would mean a very high R0 (believable in highly crowded conditions), and a high R0 would mean than most inmates had been infected recently?<p>Before anything can be implied about population death rate:<p>1. need to wait about 3 weeks<p>2. need to know the age demographics<p>3. need to know if at-risk inmates were isolated<p>Edit: on reflection, R0 itself doesn’t mean anything about how quickly people get infected. I think a fast rate of infection through the facility could be implied.
"0 deaths so far" is an addition to the title. They probably didn't draw it out in the title because it's not significant - there's generally about a 3 week time span for serious cases to turn deadly.
Huh. So I wonder. Say I'm old and have emphysema or CHF. And I got convicted of some crime that meant imprisonment.<p>Could my lawyer argue successfully that a year or whatever in prison was tantamount to a death sentence?<p>Is there any precedent for that?
The title has been editorialised; the lack of deaths <i>may</i> be significant, but without drilling down into demographics (example: average age of inmates is around 40) and other conditions that's not obvious.
It's like the aircraft carriers, with large infection rates and low death rates.<p>There's something to be said for being young and healthy, it seems.
The biggest casualty in the pandemic so far has been public faith in news media, governmental institutions and "experts".<p>The thought is really, really frightening how many people had a very undeniable experience of their local Tinfoil-Hat being proven right not once, but 3-5 times so far.<p>From the WHO recommending to sustain Airtravel to China and it's refusal to declare the outbreak a pandemic, to renowned Virologists stating that facemask usage is ineffective until the evidence was too overwhelming. From Governments in the span of 3 weeks changing their tone from overconfidence to desperation. Statistics released by research groups that could very easily be disproven by anyone with first semester statistics knowledge...<p>If anything this will change the world and it is scary to me how much this loss of trust will cost us.<p>I know a couple of well educated and rational people that are already stating they will not take a vaccine once it's available, simply because they "can't" trust any data and study done on it.<p>"Where are the adults?"
It's astounding to see the amount of aggressive misinformation being posted on every HN thread about Coronavirus - it's being downvoted fairly quickly but I have to wonder - is it possible we're getting brigaded in some kind of organized fashion?<p>Or is this just the classic engineers thinking they know better in <i>all</i> fields, rather than just the one they're educated in?
So there's a morbid silver lining here. If this continues, as I expect since we probably won't release inmates in most places in the US, this will be a good test to see what percentage of recoveries acquire immunity and possibly whether reinfection is possible and deadly because of antibody dependent enhancement[1], a property which is shared by SARS and MERS.<p>1. <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhanceme...</a><p>P.S. looks like that article has been modified since I last read it, based on the new literature I'm pretty convinced that COVID19 is likely to be deadlier the second time around. This is really, really bad. Vaccine is unlikely for this reason as well. Our only real hope it seems is to find or develop a prophylactic and/or treatment and stay in some form of isolation until then.<p>Edit: there is nothing factually incorrect about what I'm saying and all of these bits and pieces have been floating around for months.<p>The fact that a virologist hasn't connected these particular dots on live TV yet doesn't preclude us from speculating. We all have access to the same literature.