I couldn’t tolerate this writing long enough to get through more than half the article. There’s the “history is cyclical” trope, the “I have learned how to read history” repeated self-aggrandizement without any specifics, despite going on long enough to repeat himself, and really obvious statements meant to read like profundity (“when there’s great inequality of wealth, there will be social tensions”, paraphrasing only slightly.)<p>I read a book by him once. It was short and vapid and full of pseudo-profundity. It was cheap and highly rated on Amazon, so I’d given it a try. I didn’t realize he was banking on his name as an investor. Now I understand why anyone would bother reading his writing once, but not why they would read it twice.
The world order, in terms of socio-economic and politico-legal structures, is for sure changing, but it's more a matter of demographics and communication.<p>We have shattered certain assumptions about the world economy to ensure the continuing welfare of the oldest of us. This is an unprecedented act of selflessness by everyone younger than seventy-ish, because we love our elders so.<p>The real change in the world order is logistical, which has caused significant re-pricings of almost everything (even the things that are roughly the same price are so in a very different set of market conditions).<p>It is no longer a matter of how nations compete but how they collaborate, and the markets are adjusting accordingly.<p>I'm quite optimistic, but then I study Science.<p>[Edit (apart from mis-spellings)]:<p>The shattered assumptions pertain to debt management by governments, which are trivial compared to the volume of daily trading. We are in for a reckoning on resource measurement hopefully not of catastrophic proportions and this pandemic is merely a spur. In a nutshell: money fails dimensional analysis.<p>[Edit the second]:<p>By the way, if any of you would like to get together and discuss type theory and dimensional analysis and maybe reach out to the folk on the n-category cafe and lambdatheultimate and suchlike I'll happily help. We've a problem needs solving and Hacker News is populated by folk who like solving problems. I'll end (cheekily, give it a search engine result) with a reference to Terence Tao: A mathematical formalisation of dimensional analysis. I keep coming back to this blogpost. The subject kinda weirds me out.<p>[Edit the third]:<p>Removed the first paragraph as snarky, mea culpa
> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US)<p>This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it.<p>Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth.<p>Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied.<p>The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined.<p>China doesn't have a whole lot of leverage – it's cheap and convenient, but its cheap labor is easily replaceable, while Western demand (mostly US, really) and its technology are not.<p>EDIT: Additionally, the balance of power used to change much more frequently back when we didn't have nuclear weapons. From the introduction, it seems this analysis is entirely economic when it ought to also factor in politics (domestic and international), strategy and military power.
Highly recommend listening to this full interview: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrxYhv2O3wU" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrxYhv2O3wU</a>. It's long but worth it, and it touches on many of the points he brings up in the article. In fact, the interview occurred just a week after this article was published.
I'm currently reading <i>Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World</i> by Peter Zeihan. [1]<p>The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Disunited-Nations-Scramble-Power-Ungoverned/dp/0062913689" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.com/Disunited-Nations-Scramble-Power-Ungo...</a>
Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths.<p>Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him.<p>I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social strife!” No shit dude.
Chapter 2 doesn't seem to be available there yet, but Dalio did post it on his linkedin page:<p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio" rel="nofollow">https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio</a>
Worth mentioning Pure Alpha was down 20% in Q1. Someone else observed Ray Dalio has been too busy building his brand as a financial sage (cough cough) and either not keeping his eyes on the road or he just got lucky in 2008.<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/bridgewater-s-main-hedge-fund-loses-about-20-in-first-quarter" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/bridgewat...</a>
Unless the US losses a major war either economical or physical they are hard to upend because of globalization. Everything is very dependent on the US dollar and switching it will take a lot of persuading. Like losing a world war type persuading.
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“The slow one now will later be fast / for the times they are a Changin’”
-Bob Dylan<p>Loved reading “Principles” by Dalio. Great read.<p>I find it apparent that the U.S. is declining while China is in a prime position to reach new heights. The U.S. greatest competitive advantage has been culture which is quickly being copied by the new middle class in China.<p>The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary. The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward.
Lost me in the first paragraph. Examining a history of money supply and debt that predates Bretton-Woods is simply not relevant. Everything I read could have been lifted from a comment thread in /r/Libertarian 10 years ago. The last financial crisis was the ultimate test for fiat currency. One that was pointed at as the moment that debt-driven currency would crash and burn by a lot of gold bugs.<p>Instead, a deluge of loose money came and went. Banks recovered. Markets recovered. Jobs recovered. Everything recovered. Even if the face of continued fiscal profligacy. There is absolutely no logical conclusion that can be drawn except for fiat currency being one of the greatest accomplishments of the 20th century.