“When you hear someone say the words "Let's just take a basic calculation and extrapolate it out", you're about to be standing on shaky ground.<p>Especially when what they're doing isn't actually extrapolation, it's statistical inference using a sample that's not random.<p>Context: I just watched a video where an urgent care doctor took the % of people testing positive, multiplied it by the total state population, inferred the total number infected across the state, divided the number of deaths by this, & then told people their odds of dying.<p>You can't say that 12% of the entire population has contracted COVID-19 just because 12% of the people tested are positive if the vast majority of those being tested have symptoms. Healthy people are underrepresented in that sample.<p>That would be like trying to estimate the percent of the entire population that's vegetarian by only surveying people at an In-n-Out burger joint. I mean the fries are great and everything, but…”<p><a href="https://twitter.com/DataRemixed/status/1254778325416828928" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/DataRemixed/status/1254778325416828928</a>