I hate it when people do energy related articles that aren't loaded with graphs, or at least the key contextual numbers.<p>Just to be of some use here are some:<p>The overall oil market was just at or shy of 100 million barrels per day prior to covid19. As of early April we were down into the high 60-something million barrels per day. Roughly a full one third collapse in demand.<p>US oil production reached a low of about 5Mbpd in 2010, and rose to last month (march) being 13Mbpd. That is overwhelmingly the fracking you hear about, specifically in the permian basin. As of last week that was already down 1Mbpd.<p>The top 3 oil producers in the world are the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. SA and RU have been floating in the 9 - 11Mbpd range for the last few years, and just a few weeks prior to covid had decided to increase their production by ~2 - 3Mbpd each.<p>So its very simple napkin math from there. Oil sands are effectively over until we have some kind of substantial long term recovery. At least half of fracking wells in the US are being shut off right now.<p>If this covid crisis drags on for 2 - 3 years globally, and if the shift to wfh/tele-whatever gets advanced quicker than otherwise, and the airline industry doesn't return to its old levels for years and years... then there's every reason to think that oil sands are simply done and (most US) fracking wells will run out their existing investments and also be done.
I used to work for one of the largest independent power producers in Canada. Even in 2014, they were divesting from fossil fuel based generation and pouring everything into renewables. Great ideal, but it takes time!<p>Small plug for <a href="https://enviro.work" rel="nofollow">https://enviro.work</a> (project I built that aggregates environmentally positive job opportunities)
> Tar Sands<p>I like to read these words. The oil industry and the government of Alberta, Canada freak out when people say "tar sands" and insist on calling it "oil sands". They think "oil sands" sounds less dirty than "tar sands".<p>But the truth is that the stuff is really tar (oil, sulfur and sand). That's how all local people called it up until the early 2010's. Once you remove the sand it does look dirty, a dark sticky goo. They're just trying to put make up on a pig.
This article just seems to be saying:<p>- Jobs are being cut in the oil industry<p>- Unemployed workers are looking for other jobs in energy<p>It's sort of broadly gesturing at the idea that this is a sign of renewables overtaking fossil fuels—something most of us would love, obviously—but it's not really a part of the article's core.
I grew up in Alberta and I've been hearing this story as long as I can remember (and I'm old now). While the oil industry is definitely in decline, consumers aren't going to give up on all the luxuries that fossil fuels provide anytime soon. There's also the growing emerging world which has a big appetite for energy and goods. The virus is probably a temporary thing and life will go on. Additionally, the low price of energy will result in an increase in consumption once everything goes back to normal.
They might want to look at enlisting first. Cheap oil isnt going to make the ME more stable.<p>There’s also a mint to be made decommissioning oil rigs. Lot of oil going to be washing up on EU shores as Britain sinks.
If oil price goes down, demand for renewables goes down.<p>Lower demand for renewables means... Higher prices? Less output of actual renewable products like solar panels? Less demand for new wind turbines?
What is up with that fall protection? Mobile fall arresters are really not meant to be used with a loose pile of rope at your feet. And is that a shock pack? From this photo, it looks like he's going to be on the ground before it gets a chance to deploy.
One problem: the value of renewable energy rises and falls with fossil fuels. If oil is dirt cheap, well, solar panels aren't worth much. A few people will pay a premium for cleaner energy but most can't afford it.
Short term thinking goes nowhere. Sure, fossil fuels are cheap right now, but it'll bounce back later. One shouldn't make any long term decisions based on temporary market conditions.<p>Little has changed in the big picture that would not have changed anyways. Shale plays are not cash cows; shale wells have short production span, but are expensive and risky to develop.<p>Renewables are increasingly the real economic option; they make sense regardless of factors like politics and beliefs.
<i>”A non-profit corporation, Calgary Economic Development, recently started a U.S. $1.1 million program to transition unemployed oil and gas professionals to jobs in digital technology, such as software development and programming”</i><p>Might as well light that money on fire to keep warm. Retraining is such a ridiculous and naive idea, especially when you’re talking about turning an oil roughneck into a developer. That’s about as dumb as suggesting that displaced truckers can just learn to code. It’s like whoever came up with that never thought to ask a single person affected if it would be viable.