This does sound concerning however the counter arguments for an imminent stock market crash are that there are no other good alternatives for your investment. Even though fundamentals might not be lining up these conditions can prevail for much longer than one would expect. As they say "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
> Legendary investors Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper were the latest to weigh in after a historic market rebound, saying the risk-reward of holding shares is the worst they’ve encountered in years.<p>True, but what are they going to do about it?<p>They would be hard-pressed to find a rewarding asset class today that has billions in liquidity, with less risk.<p>If they hold cash/tbills, they risk losing a good chunk to inflation from the new monetary policies.<p>They could try to hedge for a market crash, but timing it seems difficult - the market can remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent. And hedges are aren't cheap with the higher IV levels today.
This is a small group of people and may suffer from sampling bias. Is there someplace that keeps track of what more people are saying over time in a systematic manner?
There wont be another crash like March, probably just a slow bleed over the next 6 months. My personal plays are Put option Leaps (2022) on a few retailers whose stocks have semi-recovered for now but are definitely destined for the graveyard in the next few years. Don't try to predict the next crash/recovery.
I found this article about a global dollar short squeeze particularly useful to better understand why the US market may have decoupled:<p><a href="https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/" rel="nofollow">https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/</a>
The stock market has turned into a get rich quick scheme in the minds of many retail investors. The WallStreetBets subreddit isn't helping. They even made the cover of Bloomberg recently. People with little to no financial education see someone make +5,000% returns with a lucky trade or options contracts, and it becomes hard to resist the pull. WSB is the 39th most active subreddit today. At the beginning of the lockdown I overheard two people on the street - likely not finance professionals - chatting casually about stocks. That triggered a red flag in my head. If stock trading becomes a mass popular hobby, like video games and movies, I have a nagging feeling that people are in for a rude awakening.
Since about 2008 stock prices have officially decoupled from the fundamentals, in the post-divident, Sarbanes-Oxley and QE era. The stock market no longer serves as a collective economic planning mechanism. This won't end up well.
You can find people who have been "sounding the alarm" since 1980 about stock prices.<p>This is no coherent analysis in this article, just a random collection of out-of-context opinions.<p>I generally expect better from Bloomberg.com .
These guys are just as prone to bandwagon and herd mentality as those in Venture Capital. When they're all saying the same thing I feel it's the best time to do the opposite of what they say.