flippant summary of bayesian stats: normalize the likelihood, multiply by a prior (which you can just set to whatevs).<p>oh, and you are allowed to assign probabilities to non-repeatable events, i.e. what's the probability there is life on mars?
If 80 in 10000 people who read Hacker News click on that link and 80% of them read all of the page, and 9 in 200 of them would previously have voted up the link and 32% of them leave New York at 14:10 travelling at 55mph, what is the probability that one of them is Bruce Willis?