We can't possibly have enough data, and even enough time since the start of the pandemic to come to this conclusion. To know if something is seasonal, we must first let a couple of years pass and measure and compare the numbers with previous years, no?<p>Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I believe in science, and its conclusions. All I wanted to know is if there's enough data points to plot a long-term trend.
It's depressing to see rational voices saying they don't trust the WHO or tending to conspiratorial thoughts. The WHO has first-hand details about the pandemic and they update their views and adjust their recommendations accordingly even if we have the feeling they are acting slowly or back-and-forth (e.g. when there was a critical and global shortage of materials for masks to give to health workers and only months later started saying wearing masks was the ideal and people simply bought the "they changed their mind so they must have been wrong all the time" idea). Without WHO the world would effectively be a much worse place for a good chunk of the world population and many contagious diseases would be around right next to some rich nations's borders. If they say it's one big wave it's because this is what the current data and analysis suggest. Can it be seasonal after all? Nobody freaking knows, but this is the best line of thought we have so far so let's act accordingly and not let the guard down please.
With all the debacles from WHO including the most disastrous one of trusting Chinese authorities and declaring there is no human to human transmission till January, I think I can be forgiven for not taking anything WHO says seriously anymore.<p>WHO needs a leadership change at the least for getting back any sort of the authority they used to have.
See page 5 of daily WHO report for a nice graph of cases since inception: <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200728-covid-19-sitrep-190.pdf?sfvrsn=fec17314_2" rel="nofollow">https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...</a><p>COVID-19 is pretty clearly not subsiding in any meaningful way.<p>For US data and projection based on models for each state: <a href="https://cv19.report/" rel="nofollow">https://cv19.report/</a>
"People are still thinking about seasons. What we all need
to get our heads around is this is a new virus and...this one is behaving differently [...] This virus likes all weather."
I think the word "seasonal" is used here as a reference to weather rather than as a recurring time period.
They can't/won't acknowledge that Corona Virus is airborne transmission disease until its 5 month after its worldwide pandemic spread, yet they can predict that this is not seasonal pandemic, without sufficient data to support it.
Many (most?) places around the world have changed the way they do things so as to limit the spread of coronavirus.<p>These measures are currently seen as temporary. I wonder how long covid-19 needs to be a major threat before these "temporary" measures become permanent cultural / legal fixtures. E.g., updates to building codes, or conversion of executive emergency orders into permanent law.<p>For example, modifying building codes for retail/office space to reduce risk of person-to-person transmission via bio-aerosol.
The WHO should not be trusted - specifically on covid. I will hold them accountable to their 3,4% claim to the day the people responsible will end up in jail.
We haven't even had one full season, so not calling it seasonal is premature, isn't it?<p>Look at <i>the numbers</i>:<p>We see that deaths are down and that illnesses are less severe (ICUs are not overwhelmed), even though daily infections are at all-time-highs in some regions. Coincidence, or perhaps due to seasonality?<p>We also see that the virus can <i>not</i> be brought under control without permanent lockdowns. As soon as you open up, the virus starts spreading again. Countries that <i>now</i> have the virus "under control" have had a significant amount of uncontrolled spread beforehand.<p>I've read several headlines along the lines of "resurgence of cases after opening up" or "second wave under way" in Europe. Then I look at the graphs and it's just not true. Cases are stable, you just have some daily variance.
This is premature at best and a potentially misleading statement by the WHO. Perhaps things haven't improved as much during the summer as we'd like, but seasonality is difficult to disaggregate from non-pharmaceutical countermeasures being lifted as we moved into warmer, sunnier weather in the northern hemisphere.<p>Based on everything we know about infectious disease transmission and illness severity in general, infection rate indicators and case severity are likely to worsen throughout fall and become particularly nasty during the depths of winter. Seasonal reduction in sunlight exposure suppresses immunity (it's not just an issue of vitamin-D), bacteria and mold exposure upticks dramatically as cool, damp days predominate in much of the northern hemisphere.<p>Air pollution increases as old weather reduces dispersal rates and people burn more fuel to heat their homes while driving more to avoid trudging through rain and snow in the gloom. And if they're not driving, then they're using public transport, and as we know, buses and trains are petri dishes. Some other infectious diseases are likely to play well with SARS2, as is observed with a variety of bacterial infections and common cold associated coronaviruses.<p>On top of all this, populations are much more likely to huddle together indoors, often in poorly ventilated spaces which allows bioaerosols to concentrate, making a physical distancing impractical for many and multiplying viral exposure load. This can be mitigated by taking steps to upgrade ventilation, adding air cleaning and sterilization countermeasures, and at an individual level, wearing the best available masks and sealed eye protection while indoors with people outside of your quarantine bubble.<p>Let's hope for the best while preparing for the worst.