I've mentioned this before, but my wife is a parathyroid surgeon (parathyroids are the glands that regulate the calcium in your neck) and would beg you to PLEASE monitor your calcium levels if you are supplementing with Vitamin D. She often sees patients on high doses of Vitamin D from well intentioned doctors, but with out of whack calcium levels because of it, and the patients can be very sick without understanding why. Often their doctors don't understand the processes either which is why they end up with her. I'll have her write a blog post about it at some point, but it is a real risk with possible severe long term consequences and she sees it a lot more often these days. She is getting her blog kicked off here (just yesterday actually) <a href="https://devaboone.com" rel="nofollow">https://devaboone.com</a> if you want to follow along.
Although this is a notable finding it's important to remember that it doesn't lead to the conclusion that supplementing vitamin D will be very beneficial here. When vitamin D is produced in the body naturally via exposure to sunlight there's a huge amount of other things that occur as well, and we don't have a ton of good science to back up if curing a vitamin D deficiency via supplementation of pure vitamin D is really nearly the same as getting it naturally, which is a common problem for supplementing things and nutritional science and epidemiology in general.<p>The extent that covid harms those that are metabolically unfit in many different ways much more than those that are perfectly healthy is still pretty under-discussed imo though, and this is yet another good data point in favor of it, even if Vitamin D is much more of a different proxy than some of the other large correlations we see with covid mortality.
This article is (badly) written by un-qualified authors (two software developers). This would be enough to raise at least a few red flags on the conclusions drawn here.
Has it even been peer reviewed?
From a first look, there no way this work would have been published by any reputable journal.<p>If there is any truth in what the authors claim, the best they could do is to work with field experts and/or submit their findings to a reputable journal for review and publishing.
Someone's health might be on the line following pseudo-scientific works.
Vitamin D has been endlessly promoted as a treatment for many diseases due to evidence from observational studies, but hundreds of millions of dollars in randomized controlled trials have never demonstrated it to be effective for any disease except rickets.<p>There was just a large trial published in JAMA [1] examining its effectiveness for depression given solid observational data. It was not at all effective.<p>The reason that Vitamin D is associated with many diseases but is not causative for anything is that Vitamin D level is highly correlated with other metrics of health such as socioeconomic status, active lifestyle, nutritional sufficiency, etc.<p>We are wasting our time and money looking at Vitamin D again and again and again.<p>1. <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2768978" rel="nofollow">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/27689...</a>
It is not surprising at all that Covid-19 matches what we already know about Vitamin D and Influenza. There are consequences for radically altering the environment in which humans evolved. We were nude outdoors and now we are clothed and indoors. When we do briefly go outside, we are all conditioned to slather on sunscreen, which blocks all Vitamin D generation.<p>Why do people tend to get sick in the wintertime and not the summer?<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16959053/" rel="nofollow">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16959053/</a>
Looks like this has been posted a lot on HN recently [0]. Previous Vitamin D & Covid-19 discussions that garnered some comments:<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23023703" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23023703</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22463713" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22463713</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23119949" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23119949</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23390264" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23390264</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23349962" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23349962</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23167802" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23167802</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23188675" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23188675</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23083619" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23083619</a><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22600685" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22600685</a><p>[0] <a href="https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=pastYear&page=0&prefix=true&query=vitamin%20d%20covid&sort=byPopularity&type=story" rel="nofollow">https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=pastYear&page=0&prefix=tru...</a>
People need to be really careful when sharing papers like these and repeating their conclusions without the appropriate disclaimers. That's always the case, and <i>especially</i> during a time when so many people are unable to consult their doctors and resorting to self-medicating based on hearsay and overconfidence in their own ability to interpret scientific papers.<p>To be clear, I'm not saying vitamin D deficiency in relation to Covid mortality isn't a valid line of inquiry for the health community to take their research in. But from what I can tell, this is far outside the authors' areas of expertise.<p>I'd say this kind of thing in particular has the potentially to be even more dangerous than irresponsibly discussing the effects of something like hydroxychloroquine, because so many people don't realize how dangerous vitamins and other such 'natural' remedies can be when taken without the supervision of a medical professional.
Interesting but a there's a decent chance of correlation not causation. Unhealthy people and people over 65 (i.e. those most susceptible to serious COVID complications) are the same group that are most likely to be Vitamin D deficient. The primary source of Vitamin D is sunlight. People over 65 tend to stay indoors, etc. People with darker skin are also more prone to D deficiency due to increased melanin, but also have higher rates of obesity, more likely to suffer from diabetes, are more likely to live in cramped conditions, etc.<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3447083/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3447083/</a>
<a href="https://www.cantonmercy.org/healthchat/42-percent-of-americans-are-vitamin-d-deficient/" rel="nofollow">https://www.cantonmercy.org/healthchat/42-percent-of-america...</a>
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/</a>
This isn't the first set of studies on Vitamin D3 and COVID-19, and very happy more is coming out that is supportive:
<a href="http://agingbiotech.info/vitamindcovid19/" rel="nofollow">http://agingbiotech.info/vitamindcovid19/</a><p>Per Nicholas Taleb this is "optionality", very low risk and potentially very high reward.
"Pending results of such trials, it would seem uncontroversial to enthusiastically promote efforts to achieve reference nutrient intakes of vitamin D, which range from 400 IU/day in the UK to 600–800 IU/day in the USA. These are predicated on benefits of vitamin D for bone and muscle health, but there is a chance that their implementation might also reduce the impact of COVID-19 in populations where vitamin D deficiency is prevalent; there is nothing to lose from their implementation, and potentially much to gain."<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30268-0/fulltext" rel="nofollow">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8...</a>
> The rapid increase of vitamin D levels in covid-19 infected patients with vitamin D deficiency (< 30ng/ml), as well as vitamin D supplementation for doctors, nursing staff and risk patients to a healthy blood level of 40-50ng/ml, is - in the authors' view - the only conceivable solution to effectively contain the corona pandemic.<p>Research paper warning alarm sounding here.
> Vitamin D deficiency causes a 10 times higher death rate in Covid-19 patients according to recent studies.<p>This is a hugely overstated conclusion - and none of the studies presented are able to make causal claims to back this up. This is a load of malarkey.
I've been very frustrated in my attempts to raise this issue with the local health department where I live. I was brushed aside, and was told "correlation does not imply causation". I doubt that the person on the phone wanted to get into a conversation about dynamical systems or nonlinear data analysis, so I didn't even go there.<p>Instead I sent a letter full of references to published research, and citing other letters (peer reviewed) urging public health officials to recommend safe levels of supplementation. I received 0 engagement. I should really send the letter every day until someone responds.<p>Aside from all of the promising anecdotal evidence and population studies, there is plenty of established theory to understand just how Vitamin D might help lessen the load of Covid-19. Decades of published, reviewed research have shown that Vitamin D:<p>- helps regulate calcium metabolism and ionization... disregulated calcium levels are also linked to poor covid outcomes<p>- downregulates some of the same inflammatory cytokines involved in the positive feedback loops seen in bad covid cases<p>- directly regulates the expression of ACE-2 genes<p>- regulates the renin-angiotensin system<p>- regulates circadian rhythm<p>Other supplements that work with Vitamin D to help regulate calcium metabolism and ionization are also promising, including K2 and magnesium.<p><a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20112334v2" rel="nofollow">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20112334v...</a><p>A friend of mine who's a doctor also told me that a lot of people with bad covid outcomes just have general electrolyte imbalances. To what degree is this pandemic just a manifestation of basic malnutrition on a massive scale?<p>At this point, I've come to the conclusion that there is a systemic conflict of interest in many health systems around the world. It's most blatant in the US. Specifically: It seems that there are certain "neo-Malthusian" individuals high up in the chains of command who simply have no interest in implementing low risk, low cost measures that prevent loss of life, and instead use their power to further cater to the already privileged groups of people they deem fit for life. This goes beyond covid-19.
As I wrote at <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23025501" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23025501</a> :<p>There is an app I've been using to track my Vitamin D for a few years now: <a href="http://dminder.ontometrics.com" rel="nofollow">http://dminder.ontometrics.com</a><p>(Not affiliated with the app, just happy with it.) It tells you the sun angle, peak hour of the day, and maximum time you should be in that day's sun based on your skin type, to avoid getting burnt while still getting enough D.<p>Be careful though - you might get a little OCD about Vitamin D tracking with this app. I did, and mainly use it now for checking how long it is safe to stay outdoors. (Instead of full blown tracking.)
I heard about this just the other day on an episode of the Radiolab podcast, if you're interested in listening to a nice narration to complement the article: <a href="https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/invisible-allies" rel="nofollow">https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/invis...</a>
My wife just had a Vitamin D test which came at 15ng/mL, so we are chuckling right now that she is 100% going to die if she gets COVID.<p>Dark humor aside, that is one hell of a chart. Really helps explain the huge drop in death rate over the summer.<p>I must say it’s a bit of a missed opportunity to build up herd immunity while the sun is shining here in the northern hemisphere.
Supplementing with vitamin D should be easy enough to test. Given that most people get their necessary vitamin D by going outside, couldn’t the presence/lack of this vitamin be an indicator of other lifestyle choices that may affect the person’s ability to fight off the disease?
Everyone should try a Vitamin D cycle if only to see if makes a big difference in daily life, especially if you live in area with sad winters. It's one of the few supplements that dramatically improves mood for those deficient or sensitive to large doses.
Dr. John Campbell has a lot of videos about vitamin D and covid-19 -- here is one from last week <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv4iINxf4IM" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv4iINxf4IM</a>
"average age group of the 20 patients" == 60 years old<p>Is 20 a high enough sample size for any meaningful conclusion from a study like this?
the problem with vitamin D is there's a lot of confounders that D is a proxy for, particularly met-syn and old age, so until there's actual mechanistic descriptions for how D inhibits covid severity, i'm remaining cautiously-optimistic-bordering-on-skeptical about its curative powers.
Would it be reasonable to hypothesize that, through lack of sun exposure and ensuing vitamin D deficiencies, lockdowns kill more people than they save? (that is, the increase in mortality would more than overcome the decrease in cases)<p>We cannot know for sure of course, but is it unreasonable to even consider?
I think the findings are good and interesting but I wish we could dodge the politicized angle of this:<p>"A lockdown would then be just as unnecessary as the justified fear of our elderly fellow citizens and the risk groups, which imposes an abnormal life on all of us."
I've been maintaining a complete-ish repository of vitamin D covid research here:<p><a href="https://github.com/GShotwell/vitamin_d_covid" rel="nofollow">https://github.com/GShotwell/vitamin_d_covid</a>
Something to consider when sunlight works and Vit D supplementation does not is how well your digestive tract is absorbing nutrients. Fast, food diaries, observe reactions especially on the skin.
If this work truly is very important, you will read about it from a reputable journal which properly vets this information. This isn't peer reviewed, it's just a website's PDF, there is no way to verify anything put onto this PDF.