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U.S. Election Priced as Worst Event Risk in VIX Futures History

37 pointsby xoxoyover 4 years ago

1 comment

smabieover 4 years ago
The IV of options is almost always too high (by too high I mean option prices are too high compared to mathematical fair value) and selling couple month out Vix futures is probably a great way to make some money right now. Moreover, the IV often fails to take into account upside volatility, effectively reducing the vix to an index that is inversely correlated to market returns.<p>I doubt the market will fall regardless of who gets elected, so the obvious trade would be to sell Vix futures and profit off of the carry. If you get scared, simply offset your position before the election and net a smallish profit (probably).<p>That being said, options IV is mostly a function of supply and demand, so it&#x27;s totally possible that you could get crushed without any realized volatility at all.
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