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No More Bold Visions of the Future

51 pointsby riverlongover 4 years ago

10 comments

Barrin92over 4 years ago
&gt;<i>When I was a teen, growing up on a diet of Carl Sagan’s Cosmos and Alvin Toffler’s Futurism, I had plenty of big ideas: spaceflight, supersonic travel, mag-lev trains, geodesic domes, bio-nanotech for longevity, and social organization to provide maximum freedom for all. Cheesy, but optimistic.</i><p><i>Now I am 29 and I have no big, optimistic ideas.</i>[...]It feels like I’m in the belly of the ship, frenetically plugging leaky holes, never even having the space of mind to think where the ship should go. Ostensibly, those decisions are made on the bridge of the ship, which, in October 2020, seems to be populated by well-intentioned individuals, but hamstrung in their ability to make good collective decisions.*<p>So the author turned into an adult. Geodesic domes and flying cars are cool but whether the future is good or not will depend on many people doing boring work over many decades and stuffing those leaks in the ship. Torvalds has said many times that you make the future better fixing one pothole at a time, and what he has built proves that&#x27;s true. Bold visions aren&#x27;t all they&#x27;re cracked up to be and I&#x27;ll take the linux kernel and git over Bezos phallic rockets when it comes to world improvement in tech. What I&#x27;ll take from Bezos is the decidedly non-futuristic idea of putting books into boxes a little bit faster than everyone else. That made the world a bit better as well.
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haltingproblemover 4 years ago
&gt;<i>Recent years have shown me how difficult it is to make any meaningful public decision. Every debate is endlessly contentious, every subject has meaningful nuance, and every decision has exceedingly hard-to-predict second-order-effects. The world is much more complex than it was even twenty years ago, and the effects are paralyzing.</i><p>I would disagree that the world is much more complex than it was twenty years ago. The increase in complexity is perceived rather than actual. Just like more reporting of crime creates more awareness of crime that existed before but was unreported creating a mistaken awareness of more crime. On most indicators the world has gotten better and more free and more democratic. This matters for the next bit of reasoning.<p>I would posit that what has happened is that second order effects are now more visible like the crime that was not reported and is now reported. More democracy and access to media means that second-order effects sufferers are more likely to make a kerfuffle and bang the equivalent of pots to get attention whereas previously the big decisions were just rammed through.<p>A Hoover dam would probably not be built now because the communities affected are more empowered and have the resources to mobilize political opinion. I dont even know how much opposition the Hoover dam faced when it was built if any. Similarly it is far harder if not impossible to build Nuclear power plants because surrounding communities will raise hell. There is also far more understanding of the second order effects. They always existed but we were just unaware of them.<p>I am not saying this is a bad thing or a good thing just pointing out that you are conflating <i>awareness</i> of second order effects with the <i>existence of more</i> second order effects.
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iambatemanover 4 years ago
Where our culture used to dream of flying cars, we seem to be leaving our technocratic utopian bull run. In my opinion, we are entering a cultural period of “cementing” the gains from the switch to digital life. For example, over the last ten years we all got cameras in our pocket and over the next ten years we will figure out new ways to use the pictures.<p>That same process is happening everywhere...how should companies use Slack? How do small companies measure digital ad effectiveness well? How do we limit phone addiction?<p>As a result, innovation may be slower as we collectively optimize and distribute new technology.<p>P.S. learning how to retrofit a US city away from car-culture and toward a city that works for everyone is simultaneously iterative and radical.
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TrevorFSmithover 4 years ago
People being screwed by the current systems have bold visions. Listen to them. Lend them your privilege. Fund them.
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Glenchover 4 years ago
&gt; Recent years have shown me how difficult it is to make any meaningful public decision. Every debate is endlessly contentious, every subject has meaningful nuance, and every decision has exceedingly hard-to-predict second-order-effects. The world is much more complex than it was even twenty years ago, and the effects are paralyzing. This is clearly felt among policymakers, but I feel it even as a technologist: I understand that virtually all tools can be used – and more often than not, will be used – for both good and evil, and how hard the results are to predict over years in our dynamic world. I learned that technology can rarely solve fundamental social problems, and I’ve seen the public perception rollercoaster of “this technology&#x2F;person&#x2F;policy is good” to “this is evil” more times than I can count.<p>This is a really important point that every technologist should be thinking about in their work. It&#x27;s what caused me to quit tech. See also Neil Postman&#x27;s &quot;Five Things We Need to Know about Technological Change&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;student.cs.uwaterloo.ca&#x2F;~cs492&#x2F;papers&#x2F;neil-postman--five-things.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;student.cs.uwaterloo.ca&#x2F;~cs492&#x2F;papers&#x2F;neil-postman--...</a><p>&gt; Ask anyone who knows something about computers to talk about them, and you will find that they will, unabashedly and relentlessly, extol the wonders of computers. You will also find that in most cases they will completely neglect to mention any of the liabilities of computers. This is a dangerous imbalance, since the greater the wonders of a technology, the greater will be its negative consequences.
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forgotmypw17over 4 years ago
I have a bold vision for the future.<p>Using consensus algorithms, humans are able to build a bucket of knowledge verified by web-of-trust, free of interest corruption, and make society-wide decisions in matters of months and weeks rather than decades and years.<p>We can go from &quot;scientists discover X&quot; to &quot;scientists I personally know and trust have reviewed the paper and I now accept it as truth&quot; to trustworthy consensus on the matter to action items with just consensus algorithms and humans voting on blocks of text.
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pontifierover 4 years ago
I&#x27;ve got plenty of Bold Visions, but lack the resources to put them into practice.<p>I&#x27;m not sure what the main hiccup is. Maybe I&#x27;m not great at describing my vision. Maybe I&#x27;m trying to keep too much control over my ideas (I don&#x27;t like the idea of sharing equity at all). Maybe my ideas are just no good.<p>I feel like there is a snake oil game I don&#x27;t play, where people who want money get good at asking for it, and it&#x27;s a continual game of &quot;try not to get scammed&quot; for the people being asked.<p>I&#x27;d rather just try to fund things myself, but it&#x27;s super slow to get anything done that way.<p>I wish there were a way for good ideas to thrive on their merits without having to beg others to help, and then give huge percentages of my hard work to people who did nothing but write a check.<p>Makes me sick to think about.
d_silinover 4 years ago
...of some particular future. If anything it should be clear that you can&#x27;t fix social problems with technology alone.
etaioinshrdluover 4 years ago
Off topic, but reading about this guy, who has apparently invested in 60+ startups starting at age 24, makes me feel a bit of a sense of inadequacy. I just can&#x27;t believe this happens often... does it?
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mistermannover 4 years ago
&gt; I spend much time thinking about solutions to existing problems – the incentive mismatch in mass media that is causing accelerating polarization, how to remedy the effects of climate change, and so on. But these are all fixes, reactions. It feels like I’m in the belly of the ship, frenetically plugging leaky holes, never even having the space of mind to think where the ship should go. Ostensibly, those decisions are made on the bridge of the ship, which, in October 2020, seems to be populated by well-intentioned individuals, but hamstrung in their ability to make good collective decisions.<p>Here&#x27;s a bold vision for a better world: maybe the ship should set as its target the goal of feeding, sheltering, and clothing the significant numbers of human beings on the planet that aren&#x27;t doing so well in those categories.<p>&gt; Recent years have shown me how difficult it is to make any meaningful public decision. Every debate is endlessly contentious, every subject has meaningful nuance, and every decision has exceedingly hard-to-predict second-order-effects. The world is much more complex than it was even twenty years ago, and the effects are paralyzing. This is clearly felt among policymakers, but I feel it even as a technologist: I understand that virtually all tools can be used – and more often than not, will be used – for both good and evil, and how hard the results are to predict over years in our dynamic world. I learned that technology can rarely solve fundamental social problems, and I’ve seen the public perception rollercoaster of “this technology&#x2F;person&#x2F;policy is good” to “this is evil” more times than I can count.<p>Maybe the issue isn&#x27;t so much the difficulty of the physical problem itself, but the tool we use to make decisions: <i>representative democracy</i>.<p>The following quote is often attributed to Winston Churchill:<p>&quot;Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.&quot;<p>But it seems what he really said was:<p>&quot;No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms <i>that have been tried</i> from time to time.&quot;<p>As far as I can tell, the only people who are significantly happy with the results of the ones we have now are those who are within the system, and the top &lt;x&gt;%. Maybe it&#x27;s about time we should try a new form, <i>one that hasn&#x27;t been tried before</i>. Is it not possible to come up with something new, something that might show the potential to <i>actually</i> deliver an increase in aggregate global happiness?
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