The small print:<p>> This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.<p>My guess would be that even though they view faithless electors as 'subsequent events' they still view the outcome of Trump's legal challenges as part of the election proper.
The bet is for "next president" not "declared election winner", and not "electoral college vote winner". Don't be surprised if it doesn't pay till inauguration.<p>Edit: Nevermind. Just read the rules and it does say it's based on the projected winner. This is very misleading and very bizarre.
Technically, the election isn't over until the votes are certified by each of the states. Probably smart not to pay out until the process has fully played out. Not that the election results will change but some of the bets were for over a million dollars.
[1]
<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_finalized%3F_(2020)" rel="nofollow">https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_fi...</a>
Interesting. The entire site is geoblocked with this message<p><pre><code> Why can I not access Betfair?
We are sorry to inform you that as of 14th January 2016, Betfair’s products are no longer be available to residents of Canada.
On 14th January 2016 Canadian residents are no longer be able to login to Betfair. Please note that all outstandingExchange & Sportsbook bets will remain in place, please contact us if you wish to gain details of these bets, or withdraw any winnings, by contacting our helpdesk here.
</code></pre>
I'm not aware of any legislative changes that occurred around that time that would cause this, does anyone have any other ideas?
I just spoke to them. Wankers. They are basing it on the projected results, and are waiting for recounts. I asked what would happen if another recount was ordered in another state while the market was still in play, and they said "We'll take it into consideration" So basically, its going to come down to a judgement call by BetFair. They will pretty much be able to call it however they want, as they get to decide which states are still in play.
For those not familiar with UK betting.<p>Betting is still opened and the odds are roughly 1 vs 10, meaning if you bet £1 on Trump and he makes it you will earn £10 back.<p>It's normal for betting to continue after the end of an event. Usually the odds are reaching 1 vs 98 toward the end, because the betting platform is limiting the multiplier to about that and because there's actually money to make there in the last few percents.<p>Things do happen in the last second and results do change after a match (goal in the last second in football, horse falling in horse racing, candidate disqualified, re-scoring). For this event it's relatively normal for the betting company to wait until the candidate is in the white house before redistributing the money.<p>What is unusual here is for the odds to be this close this late in the game. We're at a fairly late point in the election when the outcome is relatively settled, is there 10% chance for trump to win?<p>The money is real, indicating there are many people who think so. Yes you (and 9 other people) could bet £1 on Biden and hope to make £1.10 back, because there's one person on the other side willing to bet £1 on Trump hoping to make £10 back.<p>P.S. Betfair is not open to US users (not legal in the US). Don't try to open an account, you will be blocked when you try to open the account or when you try to credit it.
When I placed my bets, it was over the phone. I asked for "Donald Trump to Win" and the response was pretty much something like "Bet placed for Next president @ the odds"<p>The fine print will fuck you, but I expect a total shit-storm over this. IMHO I dont beleive the bets they are currently taking are in good faith, because I can't see any path for Trump to win, even if he wins the states still in play.
This is actually a little more interesting than I originally assumed as the rules clearly state, "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election."<p>So they don't care about who actually ends up president. This is a pure bet on the voting results. I guess they think it prudent to wait and see if the Trump lawsuits hold any merit in the eyes of the courts.
Pardon my ignorance but I just went to place a £2 bet (minimum) on Biden "Back All" at 1.07. Does that mean when Betfair DOES pay out, I will make a profit of 14p?<p>Surely not?
I put money on Biden in the EU at a promised return rate of 1.6 with a Malta based company called betway. The bet was cancelled in the election night shortly after midnight EU, while polls were still open. Odds first went down to 1.57, then 1.53, then 1.50. I guess they saw "irregular betting patterns" and pulled an emergency brake.<p>No communication from them either. Took a few days to get my money back.
IMO the clearest indicator of what’s going to happen is that Israel’s Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s MBS have both congratulated Biden.<p>These two leaders are Trump buddies. Their intelligence services are top of the world. They wouldn’t make the call unless their intelligence was crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have a chance.
foreigner here. it is crazy to see that americans do not know when is the official result of their own election and what is written in their own constitution.<p>That leads me to the second question. In europe we learn history at school and in books but most of my encounters with educated americans led them to recommend me some hollywood movies to learn about some specific events of their history.<p>I feel the television has a huge importance in this country and the fact that millions of americans consider it the source of truth even to declare who is the winner of the most important event of their lives strikes me as unbelievable.
Trump's odds have actually gone up since the media called it. He's at 11% now. (Source <a href="https://electionbettingodds.com/" rel="nofollow">https://electionbettingodds.com/</a> )
CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently.
He's on pace to win Arizona. And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania.<p>Two of the swing states, have key ridings with a history of corrupt and stupid leadership. Its a bad combination that gives Trump a betting chance.<p>Example, former Mayor Kilpatrick in Detroit was sentenced to 28 years for blatantly obvious self enrichment schemes.<p>People betting on Trump now are, are hedging on the "count all votes" mantra, even if good intentioned, led to ballots counted, that should not have been, and he can prove that in court.
The media industrial complex doesn’t declare the president. The electoral college does, and not for about a month. This simple fact seems to have been forgotten by the entire world.
It doesn't help when major newspapers like the NY Times publish[1] (and then delete) garbage messages like:<p>> “The role of declaring the winner of a presidential election in the U.S. falls to the news media. The broadcast networks and cable news outlets have vowed to be prudent. He’s how it will work,”<p>[1]: <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-role-presidential-winner-news-media" rel="nofollow">https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-r...</a>
That’s because the election isn’t over... predictit actually has the odds of trump winning increasing<p><a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election" rel="nofollow">https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t...</a><p>Reasons (regardless of whether you agree):<p>there about 6 more weeks of the election. Pennsylvania’s process is currently being requested for review by multiple states, because of the following:<p>“Pennsylvana's high court ruled Thursday that election officials cannot discard mail ballots solely because of questions about the authenticity of a voter's signature; that ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by Friday, Nov. 6 at 5 p.m. will be counted; that third parties cannot deliver people's ballots; and that counties can use dropboxes or other official addresses for voters to return ballots to, among other decisions."<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1240367#blogHeader" rel="nofollow">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-pr...</a><p>Multiple Attorney Generals: <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-lawsuit-challenging-pennsylvania-mail-in-ballots" rel="nofollow">https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-...</a><p>Basic argument is the house sets the rules. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had no right to extend the deadline.<p>Barr also authorized local governments to investigate voting irregularities BEFORE validation/certification ends: <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-09-biden-trump-2020-election-n1247064/ncrd1247205#blogHeader" rel="nofollow">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/202...</a><p>Such as statistical abnormalities: <a href="https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html" rel="nofollow">https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html</a><p>Or Michigan’s mail in ballots: <a href="https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/" rel="nofollow">https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/</a>