The article correctly goes through the history of personal computing but then just stops short of reaching the obvious conclusion: everyone pretty much has a 'personal computer' already (even feature phones count, kinda). There's no "next platform". PC <i>technology</i> spread is done. As with other technologies, the next waves will be about efficiency, price and (as TFA does say) changing the way we work and live around PCs/smartphones.<p>Consider previous technologies: planes went from the Wright Flyer to the 747 in 50 years or so. But there's little "next gen" for airliners after the 747, other than well, fuel efficiency, operational efficiency, safety, etc. Which made riding in one a lot more approachable to anyone and eventually made low cost carriers possible and world tourism and Instagram influencers, etc... But a modern jet engine would be recognizable tech to an engineer from 50 years ago.<p>That's not necessarily a bad thing. But it's no longer a gold rush, it will be an evolution-driven industry just like, well, everything else.
I think the next step in evolution will be when we lose the notion of smart devices and local data, and just think in terms of screens and input devices. The closest thing we have right now is Google's Stadia: your games run in the cloud. You can use your TV (with the help of Chromecast) as a screen and you have a smart WiFi-controller that can also connect to Stadia, and together you have an experience. Or you use your smart phone and its touchscreen, and get the same content. I think this will be the model of the future experience. However, the screen content needs to adapt to the screen size and type, and to the input devices that are available. Stadia can't really do this yet. And it should even work with audio-only devices like Echos and Nest speakers.<p>You will certainly still have a phone in your pocket, but you can treat it more like a portable screen with touchscreen for input. There will be no "apps on your phone" or "data on your phone", but your phone provides that for you, just like all devices give you access to them. The big question will be where the code runs. I wouldn't count on a complete cloud solution like Stadia, because you can't guarantee a permanent network connection on your phone. My guess would be that the data and code will be synced with the cloud, but code can still run on those devices that are powerful enough. For all others, it runs in the cloud.<p>I also think that the app model will sooner or later cease to exist, because it limits what an AI can do. If you have separate apps for spreadsheets and music, the AI can't complete a seemingly trivial task like 'take the list of songs in that spreadsheet and play them'. There will be something more like recipe, to explain the AI how to read a spreadsheet and how to find and play a particular song on a music service, but all the logic that is now hidden in apps must be available to an AI to allow it to combine it.
The model is simply “computing”. After smartphones we have smart watches (the continual minimization of mobile computing) and ar/vr (immersive computing).<p>The main driver has always been mobility and minaturization. From mainframes, desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones. Also we had ethernet to wifi and cellular.<p>Kevin Kelly had a great talk about screens being pervasive almost a decade ago. The leap from bulky crt to flatscreen resulted in an increasing number of displays to display all the data we’re receiving. Not only that, but because the displays have become bigger there is more data to be displayed. Ar/Vr seems like the next thing since the screen is (paradoxically) even larger!<p>IoT is interesting because it is a new form of computing (let me know if you think otherwise) as it’s not necessarily meant directly for human-computer interaction, instead it’s machine-machine computing.<p>Voice is another interesting aspect since this type of
computing does not utilize the traditional screen.<p>Apple’s upcoming smart glasses seem like the next logical step (minaturization of mobile computing with an expanding immersive display)
I think optical waveguide is really interesting for AR (and maybe VR?)<p>And actually there are some ways that could start to replace laptops and desktops as well as phones.<p>Also wondering when there is going to be a real competitor for Neuralink. Or if it's just up to Elon to prove everything first.<p>Another crazy idea might be something you wear on your head that has a microprojector.<p>Or we just start wallpapering every room with OLED screens so your work follows you as you move around.<p>I think AI has a ton of potential as far as realizing the dream of the personal assistant.
I still think smart-glasses has a chance to come back. If you think about it, combined with AR and hand-tracking, they can make everything that has a screen obsolete.<p>Your smart-glass will replace your TV, Laptop, Console, Watch, Camera, and of course Phone.
Broadly agree but just to highlight one vital point which is not mentioned - each new platform has been enabled by the progression of Moore's law which has radically changed what is possible in a form factor / power budget / price budget.<p>Implicitly, I think, Ben assumes that Moore's law is slowing or coming to a halt. That's probably the case but I think that the honest answer on the question that Ben asks is that we don't know until we know how Moore's law will pan out over the next 10 years or so.
Prognosticators predict that advances in technologies such as virtual reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence and wearable electronics will spawn a new generation of devices that could change our everyday existence even more than the smartphone did.
Prognosticators predict that advances in technologies such as virtual reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence and wearable electronics will spawn a new generation of devices that could change our everyday existence even more than the smartphone did.
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Next-generation platforms that are wireless like the smart glasses will be limited by battery life. However, wireless charging will solve that. It will displace some computing like the mobile phone etc... But that is a long way away and there will be many failed initiatives till it becomes mass market.<p>Edward Thorp had built a wearable computer in the early 1960s to beat the dealer in casinos.<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp</a>
I guess the ring displayed in the movie Zardoz<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4EESnKyRIY" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4EESnKyRIY</a>
Payments.<p>Seriously. Banking by smartphone between other people with smartphones.<p><pre><code> += gigs
+= reputation
+= search (matching gigs to available workers)</code></pre>
More smartphones. As tech matures the ability to move it to new phases gets harder. We'll always have computers we type on because people hate talking to machines. Smart phones are intercommunication devices to keep us connected. They're good enough so won't be moved by other kinds of tech. They are post avant garde period so they will be entrenched.
Chat bots with emotion and personality, like the movie Her, acting as companions. I bet Xiaoice isn't as sophisticated as GPT-3 but in a short time it will be.<p>> The AI Girlfriend Seducing China’s Lonely Men<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25418366" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25418366</a>
I'd like to think that what's happening in the US will wake everyone up to how smartphones are abused to expose people to submarine PR.<p>Maybe more free computing like the pinephone will be what's next.
Maybe something like blockchain technology, if(!) it manages to eliminate intermediaries in some industries and make the previously computing model obsolete for some kinds of computation and industries.