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Things You Could Buy for $4B Instead of LinkedIn

62 pointsby psawayaabout 14 years ago

12 comments

raganwaldabout 14 years ago
I remember reading about a teenager who was persecuted (I don't say "prosecuted," because I think he settled for a fraction of his profits) for buying stocks and making bullish comments about them on the Internet. He fully disclosed that he bought the stock and liked it.<p>Now I read this bearish comment and the author discloses he intends to buy puts. Given that the stock market is run on sentiment, is there a clear line drawn between legal and illegal manipulation? Or does it come down to whether you are in the club or out of the club?
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Jdabout 14 years ago
There is a classical school of valuation that has difficulty dealing with Internet companies. Namely, a number of VCs, etc. have recognized that having a large number of passionate (or possibly addicted) users is the ticket to desirability and also valuation. It is better, in this sense, to have an indispensable product that is free or near free, than to have 5% of the population paying you $1K per year.<p>Does this make any sense? Well, given that the stock market largely runs on hype, it makes lots of sense if you are trying to make money (the stated aims of VCs). Large investment banks that underwrite IPOs know that money flows where there is hype and they stand to make a good deal more where there is hype. Not only that, hype is ultimately close to (although certainly not the same as) making a sale.<p>There is an additional wrinkle, social media, which no one knows what to do with, yet is so the subject of so much hype it is sure to attract lots of money. This system clearly is not broken when now big players like Facebook are able to attract money, expand, then once they've captured virtually the entire market and gotten them "addicted," they can capture advertising revenue and a percentage on Farmville-esque games. So social is weird, but the strange system in place, even if it doesn't make sense to the casual observer, seems to be working in some strange way. And it really is different. A good product can capture most of the viable US market in a year or two, which is virtually impossible in other arenas, but this is made possible by rapid growth, which is also made possible by the influx of capital.<p>Ironically, other examples like Lady Gaga are even more driven by the hype machine and can fade even more quite quickly, meaning that if you were investing in her you would be depending almost entirely on hype, while the hype for Linked-In is based on an indispensable product.
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mrbabout 14 years ago
My own, and favorite, idea: you could buy one thousand early-stage startups valued $4M each.
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SeanDavabout 14 years ago
A large part of this is "The Greater Fool" syndrome. Doesn't matter what you pay for the shares, you can always find a greater fool to sell them to!<p>Oh and 4B$ will buy about 1/10 to 1/20 of Facebook
code_duckabout 14 years ago
"I bet DNB will be around in for another 50 years. Do you think LNKD will be?"<p>I'd like to go back a few years and ask the author whether Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns will be around in 50 years.
lscabout 14 years ago
while I agree with the guy, I was pretty amused by the edit to the opening line:<p>"Before you go and buy LinkedIn (LNKD) shares at the IPO price of $45 - a $4 billion valuation (Ed: Shares are now trading hands at $83)"<p>Oh man. ouch.
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gallerytungstenabout 14 years ago
While suggestions 3-5 are relatively facetious, the first suggestion, for NRGY, is kind of interesting. While a 7.9% dividend is not the highest out there, it's nothing to sneeze at.
cryptozabout 14 years ago
No mention of spaceships? Forget funding a bunch of small internet startups. Build a moon base!<p>Japan's got plans to do it for half of that $4 billion: <a href="http://www.google.ca/search?q=robotic+moon+base+japan" rel="nofollow">http://www.google.ca/search?q=robotic+moon+base+japan</a>
missing_cipherabout 14 years ago
"commercial airliner dogfights.". Sounds like my kind of thing.
bproperabout 14 years ago
Hmmm...half of Skype.
p_habout 14 years ago
Looks like buying the puts was a bad idea
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0ffw0rlderabout 14 years ago
100 million in t-bond &#38; index funds and take a vacation.