Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing.<p>a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different.<p>b) elite overproduction is a "dangerous" topic when even treading on this ground invites charges of anti-intellectualism, but I cannot help looking at the 25+ crowd with fresh degrees, tons of debt and not-precisely-excellent earning opportunities and see that universities have a great racket out of this, while their graduates not so much. If you apply the old "Cui prodest?" question (Romans used to ask "Who profits?"), the answer would be that tertiary education complex is at least as influential as the military industrial complex, and most of the value captured does not even accrue to professors.
This Turchin fellow seems to have missed the boat by about 20 years.<p>The book "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Strauss and Howe was published in 1991 and predicted exactly the same thing. It was a bestseller at the time.<p>It's so well known that it's notable on Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...</a><p>It predicted a "crisis of 2020" caused by a number of factors including the temperaments of baby boomers.<p>There's an interesting interview with one of the authors here: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-republicans-trump.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-r...</a>
See also Samuel P. Huntington:<p>> <i>American history is driven by periodic moments of moral convulsion. The late Harvard political scientist Samuel P. Huntington noticed that these convulsions seem to hit the United States every 60 years or so: the Revolutionary period of the 1760s and ’70s; the Jacksonian uprising of the 1820s and ’30s; the Progressive Era, which began in the 1890s; and the social-protest movements of the 1960s and early ’70s.</i><p>> <i>These moments share certain features. People feel disgusted by the state of society. Trust in institutions plummets. Moral indignation is widespread. Contempt for established power is intense.</i><p>> <i>A highly moralistic generation appears on the scene. It uses new modes of communication to seize control of the national conversation. Groups formerly outside of power rise up and take over the system. These are moments of agitation and excitement, frenzy and accusation, mobilization and passion.</i><p>> <i>In 1981, Huntington predicted that the next moral convulsion would hit America around the second or third decade of the 21st century—that is, right about now. And, of course, he was correct.</i><p>* <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/collapsing-levels-trust-are-devastating-america/616581/" rel="nofollow">https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/collapsing...</a><p>* <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_P._Huntington" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_P._Huntington</a>
One of my high school classmates wrote a paper about this that was pretty prescient.<p>I remember it because I thought is was insane, and then we worked together at a summer gig and talked about it at length - he flipped me. Prediction that were key was a long war in the early 2000s and significant unrest in the 2020-2030 timeline.<p>His rationale was that the fall of the Soviets would take about 10-15 years to have a real impact on US policy and the 2020-30 timeframe was when the ruined farmers (caused by the policies of the 80s and 90s) passed the torch to the next generation in full and the broader ex-urban economy would be dead beyond redemption.<p>He was a brilliant kid, who unfortunately passed away too young in an accident.
it's an interesting idea, kind of foundation trilogy psychohistory like but it's also in some ways very obvious and hard to disprove at the same time. He gives two generations as the length for instability to dwell up, and if you move that like a sliding window over American history most of the time it'd probably be true depending on your definition of violent upheaval.<p>However if you expand it to other countries I think it quickly breaks down. In Latin America or the ME you have these cycles on a per year basis if they actually ever stop, in some regions you have way more piece and stability for hundreds of years.<p>The 'two generations' logic makes sense if you sneak into your assumption that you're in what I'd call moderately violent, fairly stable society like the US, but the reasoning is kind of circular.<p>Also assuming cliodynamics actually did have predictive power far beyond common sense then you have fully entire Foundation territory because then you're in some sort of strange loop where the acceptance of cliodynamics likely diretly impacts cliodynamics.
Cycles in history are an ancient and intriguing idea; modern - disputed - forms include Strauss-Howe generation theory.<p>This "cliodynamics" seems to be an effort to put these sorts of ideas on a more academically respectable footing.<p><a href="https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory" rel="nofollow">https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generati...</a>
I feel like an important often missed variable is what part of the population is actually not having enough food & shelter or not able to support their family.
I still think this article is on track to be correct. 2020 was a precipitation of the stormy clouds that will begin raining in 2021.<p>Lot of people have this weird idea that 2020 was somehow the last of it. I think it was the beginning and 2021 and onwards will be a tough battle.
I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes) and I couldn't put it down when I read it over the summer. Several people whom I deeply respect recommended this book, including the famous bond trader Jeffrey Gundlach.<p>After reading the book, it was really no surprise to me when the capital was overrun with rioters. The book convinced me, we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions: extreme wealth inequality, pandemic, desperation, hunger and feeling like one has no personal stake. The rise of China and decline of the United States contributes to another dangerous possible outcome. The tech industry's most recent moves to purge conservatives/libertarians may make our social condition even worse, by isolating rather than including the most desperate people in our society.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rendezvous/dp/0767900464" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rend...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...</a>
Turchin has also correctly predicted that the elections would be very close :<p><a href="http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/america-in-november-2020-a-structural-demographic-view-from-alpha-centauri/" rel="nofollow">http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/america-in-november-202...</a><p>However, so far he has been "wrong" about his "prediction" that after that the events would be completely unpredictable. In fact, so far events have been <i>very</i> predictable - this might change after the inauguration though?
What I am most worried about the global decline of liberal democracy and the rise of rise of autocratic ethno-religious nationalism. For example:<p>Turkey and Erdogan with Islam,<p>Poland and Duda with Catholicism<p>Russia and Putin with Russian Orthodox<p>India and Modi with Hinduism<p>US and Trump with White Evangelical Christianity<p>It seems the old liberal democratic order is under severe strain.
Elite overproduction happens in several ways - with tech, new services, new hardware, we all have the capability of an elite from a few decades back.<p>We’ve lowered the barrier to being an elite, to having that reach.<p>Also, we’ve made it possible to see that everyone around you might also be an elite.<p>Not only is elite over production occurring, we’ve lowered the cost to produce elites, and we’ve increased societal visibility of the elites that exist.
I expect Marshall Law declared within 24 hours. Before impeachment vote. Pelosi asked the military to ignore commands from Trump. They turned her down, and warned this is an act of sedition. So that tells me they are on his side.<p>I don't think Trump would accept being barred from running in 2024 if the impeachment vote is allowed to go through. This is his only move right now. The national guard is already in the capital.<p>Booting him off of Twitter and social media, was a plan to disrupt his ability to address the nation, and possible liability around not carrying his address should he win.
As I think some TV stations will probably block the emergency address. Trump is also convinced he would win the in person ballot, should a military declare a new election.<p>Media speaks almost in one voice now, joined by big tech, the left will be controlling almost all the levers of power otherwise. So he has large support in the population to stop that