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How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

353 pointsby deadcoder0904over 4 years ago

32 comments

motohagiographyover 4 years ago
Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP&#x27;s model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is <i>a lot</i> because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure.<p>When you have wealth of any kind, you naturally orient to getting exposure to opportunity for diversified parts of it, but when you have a scarcity view, your decisions are necessarily all&#x2F;nothing, and it even becomes a class culture thing. It&#x27;s circumstances, but also learned attitude.<p>Related, I&#x27;m sympathetic to what&#x27;s happening with GME and WSB, if a young persons net worth is four digits, it seems insane <i>not</i> to gamble it on options, as the housing bubble has cut off the last way for working people to get leverage. GME may mark the inflection point in the markets where young people realize it&#x27;s their best or even only opportunity for leverage, and meme stocks are going to be the new normal because the economy doesn&#x27;t provide anything better to invest in for under $50k. (that is, unless remote work makes distant property viable to live in)
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kharakover 4 years ago
Being passionate about something for a long time (not just a couple of hours or weeks) seems to be a rare quality. Too bad for those who lack it, as it seems to be a requirement for success in everything. There are so many posts that try to tell you how to get the most out of your passion, I haven&#x27;t seen one that explains the origin of passion or whether it is possible to become passionate.
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KineticLensmanover 4 years ago
I&#x27;ll stick with the proverbial Seneca: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”<p>Which is actually a generalization of the author&#x27;s (relatively narrow) thesis where &#x27;opportunity&#x27; depends primarily on the people that you meet and the &#x27;preparation&#x27; is being passionate about something.
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swyxover 4 years ago
They did a lot of good coining the term &quot;luck surface area&quot; - i hear it about once a month now in tech circles.<p>I actually went much further and did a literature review on the philosophy of luck: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.swyx.io&#x2F;create_luck&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.swyx.io&#x2F;create_luck&#x2F;</a><p>In short, the next step after the LSA concept is the idea of four kinds of luck, summarized by pmarca as others have noted. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmarchive.com&#x2F;luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmarchive.com&#x2F;luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html</a><p>But I think all of these are missing the angle of strategic intent - i.e. actively trying to go towards where luck is more likely. Luck is not evenly distributed. That is where I hope to add to the existing literature.
villasvover 4 years ago
&gt; When you pour energy into a passion, you develop an expertise and an expertise of any kind is valuable<p>I don&#x27;t disagree with the overall spirit, but these Paul Graham aphorisms always turn me off.<p>&gt; To satisfy my mathematically oriented brain I&#x27;ve gone one step further and formalized the concept into the equation L = D * T, where L is luck, D is doing and T is telling.<p>See? There&#x27;s no passion here. It really isn&#x27;t relevant to what is being discussed.<p>Sure, passion is great. The more the better, the world is incredible when you&#x27;re surrounded by it. Developers are fond of writing beautiful code, I am one of those too. But god damn, hold the inner coach and remember y&#x27;all are not psychologists. There is no reason to reduce the multitude of complex motivations to a single amorphous concept such as passion.
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mrandishover 4 years ago
The concept in the post is something I&#x27;ve observed in my own life and the lives of others. The article highlights that it&#x27;s just not &quot;doing&quot; but doing something you are &quot;passionate&quot; about. I get a little stuck on that word because it evokes the &quot;follow your passions&quot; type of advice which can be taken the wrong way. Here I think the key is it&#x27;s not just &quot;doing&quot; <i>anything</i> but rather something you care enough about to at least try to do well. In other words, you&#x27;re putting attention and energy into it. This tends to be something others notice because it&#x27;s authentic.<p>The other thing which seems to elevate outcomes in this context is not just &quot;telling&quot; people as measured by quantity but also by quality. Just sharing with large numbers of people may work but trying to share with those who also &quot;do&quot; things will reach those most likely to care about what you&#x27;re doing, the way you&#x27;re doing it or even just that you&#x27;re &quot;doing&quot; things with genuine personal investment. When I see that, it usually stands out and I&#x27;m much more likely to want to engage with that person.
carrozoover 4 years ago
I’ve had this old post from Marc Andreessen pinned in my mental browser for a long time now. There are four types of luck and you can influence three of them:<p><i>Chance I is completely impersonal; you can&#x27;t influence it.</i><p><i>Chance II favors those who have a persistent curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore.</i><p><i>Chance III favors those who have a sufficient background of sound knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations.</i><p><i>Chance IV favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors.</i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmarchive.com&#x2F;luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmarchive.com&#x2F;luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html</a>
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williamonillover 4 years ago
I think this equation completely forgets to take into account the power of the people you tell about your ideas. If you are studying in Stanford and can literally walk into the office of professor X and tell him about your ideas (which worked pretty well for Elizabeth Holmes and professor Channing Robertson but that&#x27;s a different story) you have an enormous competitive advantage. And if you have a Stanford professor on your side, it&#x27;s pretty easy to open doors to other influential people.<p>On the other hand, if you tell your idea some stranger on the Internet... chances are much lower that you will find the right people.
sh490over 4 years ago
By increasing the size of your exposure. Ideally, diversifying exposure to opportunities&#x2F;people&#x2F;circles&#x2F;etc.<p>This should be done concurrently with (if not as a result of) increasing quality and amount of your output. By the time you meet the &#x27;right&#x27; person, are in the &#x27;right circle&#x27;, you&#x27;ll have something to show. Otherwise, it&#x27;s wasted opportunity, and hence wasted luck.
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yaloginover 4 years ago
This is only tangentially related to the article.<p>I keep hearing a lot of “put effort into what you are passionate about”. One thing I found is passion is also generated. It happened to be many times, I force myself to work and n something for some time and I automatically see the beauty&#x2F;challenge in it and develop the motivation without the need to push. I want to hear other’s opinions on it.
pontifierover 4 years ago
This puts the onus on others. In my opinion the biggest contributors to luck are observation i.e. the ability to see opportunity, and willingness to execute on the opportunities you see.
soaredover 4 years ago
I really really dislike the idea that everything you do needs to be multiplied by networking. Not everything is entrepreneurship, not everyone is looking to meet people to accomplish x.<p>I had hoped this article was something unique, but one paragraph in and it’s more growth hacking nonsense.
brudgersover 4 years ago
A theory that only works for people who are lucky enough to be surrounded by supportive people.<p>Some people have the misfortune to know people whose usual reaction is throwing sand in other people&#x27;s gears. People who crap on other people&#x27;s plans.<p>Just as good luck can compound, so can bad luck.
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choxiover 4 years ago
Product-market fit often has an element of luck, otherwise someone else would have found the opportunity already. So this is really good advice for anyone working on a startup, it&#x27;s sort of another way of saying the classic YC advice that you should be &quot;building things and talking to customers&quot;.<p>I really like this mental model, one thing I&#x27;ve noticed about my failed startup attempts is that I did a lot of &quot;doing&quot; but not &quot;telling&quot;.
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moron4hireover 4 years ago
I would say this is exactly how I was able to pivot out of web and database development into VR development[0]. I spent a lot of time going out to meetups when I first started getting into VR. Meeting people, talking to people. Eventually, I started showing people the stuff I was building. That led to getting asked to do talks at the meetups about the stuff I was building. That led to more contacts. I ended up making friends with folks who would one day make the connections that got me my current job.<p>Incidentally, when folks at my current employer started talking about hiring someone for my role, they kept running into people who knew me and had a high opinion of me.<p>Networking works in many directions. But it only works if you don&#x27;t go into it looking for it to work. I think the big key was that I wasn&#x27;t out to gladhand with folks. I was just out to make friends over a shared passion. It gives an authenticity to your speech that people can see.<p>[0] Which now has a big web and database component, all in service to the VR app that I&#x27;m building.
pototo666over 4 years ago
I like this idea. It&#x27;s simple and elegant.<p>I am accidentally practising it.<p>I make games. I tried and failed to get investement and partners.<p>So I am making games alone. Last week I started streaming my daily work. I stream my the other screen display, such that I can decide what to show and what to hide.<p>I told myself, streaming cost me no money and I might attract attention of partners and investors. Nothing unfold yet. But I would continue.
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postitover 4 years ago
I struggle a lot with advertising my work outside the company.<p>I&#x27;m the kind of engineer that will get anything done regardless of the tech (or people&#x2F;process) complexity, and I always end up watching someone else in the team going to conferences to present my work.<p>Random reasons random, but mostly because my inner klout is way bigger than my outer persona.
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okareamanover 4 years ago
Coincidentally I just read this today: &quot;There is no such thing in the world as luck. There never was a man who could go out in the morning and find a purse full of gold in the street to-day, and another to-morrow, and so on, day after day: He may do so once in his life; but so far as mere luck is concerned, he is as liable to lose it as to find it. &quot;Like causes produce like effects.&quot; If a man adopts the proper methods to be successful, &quot;luck&quot; will not prevent him. If he does not succeed, there are reasons for it, although, perhaps, he may not be able to see them.&quot;<p>THE ART OF MONEY GETTING or GOLDEN RULES FOR MAKING MONEY By P.T. Barnum<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gutenberg.org&#x2F;files&#x2F;8581&#x2F;8581-h&#x2F;8581-h.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gutenberg.org&#x2F;files&#x2F;8581&#x2F;8581-h&#x2F;8581-h.htm</a>
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the-dudeover 4 years ago
I practice this in billiards&#x2F;carambole ( 3 balls, no pockets ).<p>I try to avoid &#x27;perpendicular&#x27; approaches, instead opting for shots with big angles, even if they are technically more difficult.<p>This literally translates into a larger area where I have the chance to touch the 3rd ball.
freshpotsover 4 years ago
This is an excellent video from Veritasium that discusses luck as a factor of success: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;3LopI4YeC4I" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;3LopI4YeC4I</a>
MrYellowPover 4 years ago
&quot;People&quot; aren&#x27;t actually a variable in this.<p>The variable is &quot;amount of potential interactions with the environment&quot;. People are a part of ones environment.<p>Compared to someone who sits at home all day, the odds of &quot;having luck&quot; increase dramatically simply by going outside and walking around.<p>This includes &quot;meeting new or old people&quot;, talking to them, sharing what you do etc.<p>What the author completely ignores is that it also increases the odds of getting unlucky.<p>I feel like the author has a rather romantic perspective on this.
sigmaprimusover 4 years ago
I&#x27;m not sure the variable of how many other people I tell about my passion has an effect of its success.<p>I have several passions and many ventures based on them.<p>I believe &quot;A farmer has as much luck as he has seeds in the ground&quot; regardless of how many people are involved. I my case &quot;seeds&quot; are ventures that I start based on my passions, many will wither but some will do well and a few do great.<p>The great ones seem to draw others to get involved even when I try to keep them low key.
ldboothover 4 years ago
I like the visual of a surface area. It adds to how I think about it... The equation for luck similar as luck being the compounding interest component and over time, compounding itself with consistent doing. Compounding applies to many things, but take a business, years in business and word of mouth&#x2F;experience is a form of compounding customers&#x2F;revenue. Same for luck and doing something consistently with enthusiasm.
jonnycomputerover 4 years ago
Given just how much <i>bad</i> luck I&#x27;ve had in my life, I&#x27;m not sure I want to increase my Luck Surface Area.<p>Ha ha. I know, that&#x27;s not what the blog post is talking about. Well, sort of. Obviously, more exposure also means more risk. Like, I never used to get publication scam spam until I got published.
baxtrover 4 years ago
I just love the positive tone of this article. There is so much hope and positivism. I find it energizing.
binbagover 4 years ago
Do things you&#x27;re keen on? Deep.
colandermanover 4 years ago
(2010). There&#x27;s since been much discussion of this post here, and generalization to other aspects of life. E.g. I remember the example, if your goal is to date a model, start hanging out in places (cafes&#x2F;bars) where models hang out.
hwestiiiover 4 years ago
Louis Pasteur figured this out in the 19th century. “Chance favors the prepared mind.”
xyzelementover 4 years ago
An Israeli entrepreneur once introduced me to the idea of &quot;the adjacent possible&quot; - meaning, as you progress to &quot;the next point&quot; - the possibilities connected to that point are available to you.<p>Somewhere else, I read the definition of &quot;intelligence&quot; as that which maximizes its future options.<p>I think both things hit at the same idea of &quot;surface area of luck&quot;. We think of luck as &quot;a good opportunity you can take advantage of&quot; - if you become someone who can take advantage of more opportunities, you become luckier.<p>Some of the strategies that helped me (none of them are intentional):<p>- Never passing up an opportunity to learn - whether new skill or new degree or new industry or a new personal challenge. As Steve Jobs said, sometimes you don&#x27;t learn until later how the dots connect to what you eventually do.<p>- Diversifying my experience. EG: 13~ years ago I was a &quot;senior software developer.&quot; Since then, I had been a &quot;development manager&quot;, a &quot;product manager&quot; and also for a time a &quot;senior software developer&quot; again. When I lost my job a few months ago, I was able to look at opportunities along all 3 of these job tracks, whereas if I had stayed in the single track, I&#x27;d have 1&#x2F;3 the options.<p>- Ditto to industries. Until now, everything I did was in finance, so I intentionally found a role outside of finance, because I could always go back to it if I need to, but now I am proving to myself (and to my resume) that I can cross industries and work anywhere. That again increases. your surface area.<p>- Have a diverse network, for example find a way to connect with young talented people where you are (first job, university) because they will disperse throughout the world and may do cool things and you may want to do those things with them, or they can just help you. It has been amazing how much people that I had barely connected with when we worked together were willing to help when I needed a referral&#x2F;advice&#x2F;whatever.<p>- I&#x27;ll call this one out separately: help people. Make time to mentor people, help them get jobs, put in a good word, whatever. Not everyone will &quot;pay you back&quot; but it doesn&#x27;t matter, the reputation of &quot;xyzelement&#x27;s a good guy, he&#x27;s generally helpful&quot; means the world, especially as you become more senior.<p>- Be the dumbest guy in the room. You grow more when being surrounded by those who can challenge you uncomfortably. Pick the right room. Comfort = death.<p>- Troubleshoot your mind. Most of us are held back by stupid hangups. For example, most developers I know could be overall way more successful if they got over shyness&#x2F;fear of public speaking. Figure out why you fear whatever you fear, and work to get over it. Imagine you didn&#x27;t go for your dream job because it has some minute attribute that you pointlessly fear.<p>- Check your language. If you find that &quot;they&quot; are responsible for what&#x27;s happening to you, you have given away all your power. Figure out how &quot;you&quot; are responsible for where you and and what opportunities &quot;you&quot; have, and then own it and act.
bigbassrollerover 4 years ago
I have come to a similar conclusion through the phrase “luck is opportunity meets preparation”.
rhodopsinover 4 years ago
“The harder I work, the luckier I get.” – Samuel Goldwyn
Invictus0over 4 years ago
There is no such thing as being lucky. It is just a matter of perspective. Luck is what happens when people spontaneously feel grateful.
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