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The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

669 pointsby dlcmhabout 4 years ago

106 comments

misiti3780about 4 years ago
The saddest thing about all of this IMO is they have been working on this for 14 years, and how much money was spent&#x2F;wasted? Now, read about Skunkworks - they were able to build the SR71 (without supercomputers) in less than half that time and for a fraction of the cost.<p>This isn&#x27;t just planes, this seems to be everything nowadays. Fission was discovered in 1938&#x2F;1939 and we dropped two bombs on Japan in 1945. No chance we could do something like that in this toxic environment of today.<p>I know Peter Thiel is not popular here, but his conversations about technological progress seem to be spot on: we just cant build cool shit anymore. I really did want a flying car, and all I have is 140 characters and promises of AI that never come true.<p>Maybe, you could say there are some exceptions like CRISPR, but that is TBD.
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CoffeeDregsabout 4 years ago
Putting aside the good-plane&#x2F;bad-plane discussion, this program is the poster child for one of my pet wishes: that the costs of government programs would be expressed in $&#x2F;tax-payer. There are about 100M tax payers in the US; this program is expected to cost about $1,500,000M; so the F35 program is expected to cost about $15,000 per tax payer. True: that&#x27;s over 50 years; still, un-discounted, that&#x27;s $300&#x2F;year&#x2F;tax-payer.<p>The Covid bailout last year was about $60,000 per tax payer (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.covidmoneytracker.org&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.covidmoneytracker.org&#x2F;</a>). How much of your $60,000 did you see?<p>I&#x27;m not arguing for or against these programs; I&#x27;m arguing for expressing them in comprehensible terms. $6,000,000,000,000 societal total; or $60,000 for <i>you</i>. Do you expect to receive $15,000 of value from the F35 program? I&#x27;m not sure I won&#x27;t: perhaps it&#x27;ll keep oil&#x2F;energy prices stable and I spent well more than $300&#x2F;year on energy...
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digi59404about 4 years ago
“The F-35 has failed” is a strong statement that depends on what your definition of success is. Did it fail because it couldn’t replace the F-16? Did it fail because it’s expensive and bloated?<p>Do those things even matter?<p>I’m not defending the F-35 but anyone deeply and intimately familiar with the platform knows and understands that it is a Ferrari. You don’t bring your Acura TSX to a Formula 1 race track to win a race. Just like you don’t bring your Ferrari to the farm to haul material (not anymore anyways).<p>The F-35 may be a Ferrari; but the thing about Ferraris is that their technology trickles down. Now we have electric cars with carbon fiber shells. The same is true for the F-35. The technology inside it has and will lead to the resurrection and long standing use of older planes like the B1 and U2. Where the airframe is solid but the tech and stealth is not. It will also lead to revolutionary new planes which are cheaper to make and build.<p>Through the F35s use of distributed computing and treating hardware components and their software as services, we’re not going to be doomed to the same fate as the F16 where we can’t find hardware. Instead, we’ll have more component oriented aircraft systems where each aircraft is no bespoke and can use from a menu of technologies.<p>So did the F35 fail because we spent too much? Depends on how much it saves us later.<p>Did it fail because it didn’t replace the F16? What if it makes the F16 viable again? Did it still fail?<p>Some may see this as a slippery slope. What matters is the objective outcome that comes from this project. Not the success criteria some folks have perpetuated or thrust upon the project.
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supernova87aabout 4 years ago
I guess along the way, the <i>activity</i> of designing and building the plane became more important than the <i>outcome</i> &#x2F; functionality of the plane itself.<p>You see it all the time in projects. People look busy and seem like they&#x27;re building things, so some progress must be happening. Or is it?<p>Blink an eye, and in a couple years you unwittingly accumulated a platform that served to fulfill every random team&#x27;s desire to load on requirements, systems, electronics, sensors (&quot;go find out what people want!&quot;), with very few people making the countervailing decision to trade off &#x2F; cut things for an overall desired outcome (&quot;what do they actually demonstrate -- not say -- they <i>need</i>?&quot;).<p>Well, they didn&#x27;t have to pay for it, so there was no harm in giving their requirements. And if the actual willing payor (Congress) had little incentive (or technical chops) to be ruthless about costs or actual useful output, well then there&#x27;s few checks on that happening. Until some top level general says, &quot;why aren&#x27;t these hugely expensive planes being used like we thought they would be?&quot; Too late.<p>I guess it kept people employed in the meantime. How can you cut 10% of the workforce in Huntsville when the representative sits on the Armed Services committee? (I don&#x27;t know that, but just for example...) Which, sometimes, is a national goal in itself for strategic purposes.<p>It might be good though, to have a more deliberate plan about these kinds of things, if that&#x27;s the goal.
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ktln2about 4 years ago
F-35 is not expensive if you consider the alternatives:<p>Brazil bought 36 JAS-39E for $5.8 billion. [1]<p>Taiwan ordered 66 F-16V for $8.1 billion. [2]<p>Korea is going to get 20 F-35A for $3.3 billion. [3]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.flightglobal.com&#x2F;saab-brazil-finalise-gripen-ng-deal&#x2F;114942.article" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.flightglobal.com&#x2F;saab-brazil-finalise-gripen-ng-...</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nationalinterest.org&#x2F;feature&#x2F;taiwans-f-16v-fighter-jet-purchase-why-it-matters-167566" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nationalinterest.org&#x2F;feature&#x2F;taiwans-f-16v-fighter-j...</a><p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.defensenews.com&#x2F;global&#x2F;asia-pacific&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;10&#x2F;south-korea-to-buy-20-more-f-35-jets&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.defensenews.com&#x2F;global&#x2F;asia-pacific&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;10&#x2F;s...</a>
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zestsabout 4 years ago
Where&#x27;s the quote from the Air Force saying the F-35 failed? There is none. As far as I can tell this article is just misrepresenting a quote to push a narrative.
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protastusabout 4 years ago
&gt; The F-35 is a Ferrari, Brown told reporters last Wednesday<p>It <i>became</i> a Ferrari due to feature creep and an enormously complex and expensive technology stack. The F-16 is not a Ferrari and NATO needs a multirole single-seat fighter that is affordable to purchase and fly.<p>My most charitable view is the F-35 became a jobs program for Lockheed Martin and subcontractors. People were trained and (allegedly) useful technology was developed. But the price tag appears unreasonable by an order of magnitude, and this puts no accountability on the program management or people signing the checks.<p>As for arguments about technology trickling down from the F-35:<p>* The argument needs evidence. I&#x27;ve seen no attempt to identify the value of the technologies developed against the time and money spent.<p>* Too much time was surely spent on integration and one-off details specific to the F-35 platform, and this is sunk cost unlikely to be recovered in future platforms designed by new teams.
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woeiruaabout 4 years ago
This is just another sign that the US defense establishment has opened its eyes to the reality that the US could lose a war of attrition against a major power. We have focused too much on high tech weaponry, and we&#x27;re now vulnerable to being overwhelmed by large numbers of low tech enemies. It doesn&#x27;t matter if your fighters have a kill ratio of 10:1 if your enemy can replace those 10 fighters faster than each one of yours that you lose.
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irjustinabout 4 years ago
F-35 had the same fundamental problems as the Space Shuttle.<p>High level requirements: Dog fighting, close in air support, stealth, long range, automatic weapon systems, VTOL variant.<p>It was said many times over the decade but this plane has no specialization, so it sucks at everything. F-16&#x27;s can beat it in a dogfight, A-10&#x27;s are better close support, etc etc.<p>The Space Shuttle was rightfully cancelled (Still, I was sad) because it was a bucket of requirements that had huge reliability and cost problems.<p>Don&#x27;t worry, this will repeat itself. A bunch of specialized tools exist and then someone says &quot;I can build you a swiss army knife&quot; and someone high up gets sold the dream of the multi-function tool. &quot;It&#x27;s gonna solve all our problems, you&#x27;ll see...&quot;<p>The multi-function tool looks f&#x27;ing fantastic on paper. It does everything! Until you put it up against actual specialized hardware and then decision makers say &quot;ohhhhh yeah that&#x27;s why we did it like that...&quot;
bookmarkableabout 4 years ago
I&#x27;m not a military expert, but just as a civilian tired of seeing my taxes wasted, doesn&#x27;t the US military need to be completely reimagined anyway? Who is it built to defend against?<p>As an example - the flyover at Super Bowl 55. Terrifying air power that could wipe out a civilization, but those bombers don&#x27;t stop some rogue idiots from storming the Capitol, or any number of foreign and domestic hacking threats.
hykoabout 4 years ago
The test of a combat aircraft is in combat. Nobody will give a fuck what the programme cost or that it couldn’t do X if it gives you a decisive advantage in war.<p>It’s fashionable to hate on the F-35, but let’s face it: if the allies have to establish air superiority somewhere in the world, they will be using F-35s to do so, and I’m not aware that anyone has the platform to stop them.
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throwaway0a5eabout 4 years ago
They must have A&#x2F;B tested the title to see what gets the most smug confirmation bias clicks (title is clearly not intended to optimize for outrage clicks so what else could it be).<p>The whole article is about the history of the program, why it costs so much and what the options are going forward. If you squint you can make it seem like failure but the article does not make that claim.
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ElMonoabout 4 years ago
I would guess that the NGAD prototype[0] has given USAF leadership confidence to publicly alude to F-35 shortcomings.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.popularmechanics.com&#x2F;military&#x2F;aviation&#x2F;a34030586&#x2F;air-force-secret-new-fighter-jet&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.popularmechanics.com&#x2F;military&#x2F;aviation&#x2F;a34030586...</a>
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JabavuAdamsabout 4 years ago
There&#x27;s a claim in the article that it&#x27;s too difficult to update the software on the F16s. Could someone (ideally with military aircraft software experience) comment on this? I don&#x27;t understand -- I would think that software would be the easiest (but not necessarily cheapest) thing to upgrade. Computers have only gotten smaller and faster.
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OliverJonesabout 4 years ago
Well, $100M for a device intended to be shot at!<p>A device that&#x27;s faster and slicker than everything else. That has a version that can fly vertically.<p>If you&#x27;re in the sf bay area, go take a tour of the SS Jeremiah O&#x27;Brien when things reopen. It&#x27;s a WWII Liberty Ship freighter. They built well over 2000 of these things, fast, and cheap, to haul military stuff from continent to continent. They had to be fast to build: many were needed. They had to be reasonably cheap: the enemy sank many of them.<p>And, look at the design of this here Hacker News web app. Functional. High capacity. Simple.<p>Why can&#x27;t US weapons factories build stuff like liberty ships and simple web sites, that work and are serviceable?<p>Too many committees? Too many senators? Unwillingness to tell some branch of the service (the Marines) to use helicopters? Another branch (the Navy&#x27;s aircraft-carrier service) to use purpose-built planes?<p>I wonder if engineering and business schools should reintroduce this thing I was taught in college. &quot;Any clod can build something heavy for a dollar. It takes skill and dedication to build something light for a quarter.&quot;<p>Grumble.
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bootloopedabout 4 years ago
The funniest anecdote about the F-35 I like to tell is this: the Air Force decided the F-22 was too expensive, they needed something cheaper, so they made the F-35. The F-35 ended up being the most expensive weapons program in human history.<p>Now, I understand that is oversimplifying things, bending the truth a little, and omitting crucial details... but it&#x27;s not <i>that</i> wrong.
qzwabout 4 years ago
Is it better for the prospect of peace if the U.S. and its adversaries all have large fleets of cheap warplanes or small fleets of expensive ones? I would argue that the F-35 is not only very expensive for the U.S., but has actually increased the cost of fielding fighter jets (as well as air defense systems) for the entire world. And therefore it has made it more expensive to fight a war for <i>every</i> country. Now ask yourself would you rather live in a world where the cost of wars is lower or higher?
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some_randomabout 4 years ago
What a complete load of BS. The program was expensive, but as soon as someone tells you that $100m for brand new fighter is expensive, you know that they&#x27;re either lying or don&#x27;t know what they&#x27;re talking about.<p>Edit: None of you, including me, have enough understanding of this topic to even begin to discuss it in a serious manner. Have you ever heard some technically illiterate family members debate Apple vs Microsoft vs Dell computers? That&#x27;s what you all sound like right now.
bob_morton_1987about 4 years ago
&quot;I had a guaranteed military sale with ED209! Renovation program! Spare parts for 25 years! Who cares if it worked or not!&quot;<p>-- Dick Jones, Robocop.
bltabout 4 years ago
The problems with the F-35 feel analogous to problems we face in the software industry.<p>At the implementation level, we tend to underestimate the cost of making a system extensible and &quot;future-proof&quot;, and underestimate the value of implementing a narrowly focused system from scratch.<p>At the specification level, product managers too often are willing to add every feature that big customers request.
abarringerabout 4 years ago
If the primary purpose was to funnel money from you -&gt; .mil -&gt; military industrial complex it succeed wildly beyond all expectations. Otherwise not so much.<p>I lived and worked very close to Eglin Air Force base where all the initial F35&#x27;s went. Many Air Force people thought the primary design decisions were to spend money and little else.
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tyingqabout 4 years ago
Given the type of both recent and predicted conflicts that the US has been involved with, it&#x27;s not 100% clear to me that the US needs yet another aircraft. That is, fighting in proxy wars or fighting in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria don&#x27;t need anything new. And fighting a sophisticated enemy would probably ramp up to nuclear deterrents and diplomacy anyway...fighters wouldn&#x27;t make a notable difference in that kind of war.<p>Won&#x27;t happen, but it seems like they should just buy fighters from allies where the F-35 isn&#x27;t a good fit.
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twobitshifterabout 4 years ago
Are fighter jets a necessity when we have drones? Other commenters bemoan the lack of technological progress in fighter jets, but a drone is capable of maneuvers that humans cannot survive, and the use of drones also limits the loss of pilot lives.<p>Investing money in drones over fighter jets seems like the cost effective move here. Flying the jet yourself is definitely cooler than doing it by remote control, but I don’t think it will make much sense in warfare in 20 years time. We have to skate to where the puck is going.
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Gustomaximusabout 4 years ago
First, not an expert, just armchair critic so take what I say with a large pinch of salt, but...<p>I think something US should take out of this is consider what Russia do with their monkey model strategy. Basically with something like tank&#x2F;jet they do 2 models, one with all the bells and whistles and the other is a simple version.<p>This has 2 main uses;<p>1) Export market so they can sell simpler&#x2F;cheaper and not share all tech. America does this somewhat but more on the tech protection side I believe.<p>2) Manufacturing output potential, so in a war countries win in the either the first strike or attrition. If you hit the attrition stage you want simplified options so factories can output faster vs the multiples the premium version take in time and resource.<p>If they had this, it might have given a low cost daily driver option while not forgoing the top end capability.<p>The other thing I thing Russia does I feel countries like mine (Australia) and other western nations should do more of is work out how to expand military into absorbing civilians. This way you can scale down the size generally whilst having solid plans on how to scale up quickly beyond the usual reserves. I&#x27;ve raised this before but people say military tech is too advanced. But I feel humans are smart and adaptable, I&#x27;ve little doubt if they look into this they would realise maybe women in their 60&#x27;s (example&#x2F;guess as far from normal military recruits) might make great radio operators with minimal training or drive supply lorries. Having this knowledge would give a huge force multiplier to armies if they want to scale fast and ideally help reduce the need for as large standing forces.
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Pxtlabout 4 years ago
Obvious. Radar invisibility is justifiably valuable to the air force, but it&#x27;s also almost-prohibitively-expensive.<p>It&#x27;s not even a cost-benefit thing, because the benefit is there... But you don&#x27;t want that cost on <i>every</i> plane.<p>Tim Krieder said it best: &quot;we have radar-invisible planes and our enemies don&#x27;t have radar&quot;.<p>For the Al Qaedas and Isises of the world that the US seems to fight so much, the F-35 is absurdly overspecced.
einpoklumabout 4 years ago
&gt; The Air Force a generation ago launched development of an affordable, lightweight fighter to replace hundreds of Cold War-vintage F-16s<p>If that was the goal, then the moment the price tag on the F-35 was set, failure was admitted.<p>According to this: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.investors.com&#x2F;research&#x2F;f35-fighter&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.investors.com&#x2F;research&#x2F;f35-fighter&#x2F;</a><p>the price of an F-35 is about 80 Million USD.<p>An F-16 goes for 30 Million USD: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.fool.com&#x2F;investing&#x2F;2020&#x2F;08&#x2F;24&#x2F;lockheed-martin-scores-62-billion-f-16-sale&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.fool.com&#x2F;investing&#x2F;2020&#x2F;08&#x2F;24&#x2F;lockheed-martin-sc...</a><p>Although it seems you can buy it used for 8.5 Million USD?? : <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.planeandpilotmag.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;the-latest&#x2F;2020&#x2F;07&#x2F;24&#x2F;f-16-fighting-falcon-for-sale-youl-never-guess-how-much-theyre-asking&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.planeandpilotmag.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;the-latest&#x2F;2020&#x2F;07&#x2F;24&#x2F;...</a>
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decafninjaabout 4 years ago
My armchair general understanding is that the requirement of the F-35B variant is responsible for a whale sized portion of the F-35&#x27;s woes?
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flockonusabout 4 years ago
It absolutely blows my mind how antiquate air force research is. An effort to develp an array of remotely controlled C4 packing &quot;kamikaze&quot; drones that when produces in mass would cost about $1k each is infitnitely more interesting, and yet gov. spends this kind of money on over complicated technology.
rawgabbitabout 4 years ago
I find the Forbes article completely misreads the source article it quotes from: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.airforcemag.com&#x2F;brown-launching-major-tacair-study-with-cape-considering-5th-gen-minus&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.airforcemag.com&#x2F;brown-launching-major-tacair-stu...</a>.<p>Unless the Forbes author has inside information, the airforcemag article in no shape or fashion says the F35 is a failure. The airforcemag article quoted Gen Brown saying the combat commanders are using the F35 too much. And wearing out the available ENGINES. With a limited budget and the mission he he has to fulfill he wants a cheaper alternative that he can sends into low threat theaters. And preserve the F35 if and when the US must fight near peer enemies. Eg Russia and China.
Milkman128about 4 years ago
Honestly the future is drones. Not sure what the value of maned aircraft is. AI air superiority drones should be their next thing<p>Not entirely but like 15% of the force
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exabrialabout 4 years ago
Ah, the F-35 disinformation campaign continues. If you read the article you&#x27;ll see that there is nothing substantiating the claim other than the author connecting yarn on pegboard.<p>My opinion here is the Air Force recognizes the cost overruns from the program mean they need to make sure the USA&#x27;s &quot;near peer rivals&quot; (their words) are lulled into a false sense of security, As they won&#x27;t be able to spend this money again for a good 20 years. China is 12-15 years behind, Russia maybe 3-5.<p>An incredible amount of risk was undertaken in the project. Hopefully the lessons learned make future development much cheaper, as nothing like the aircraft has ever taken to the skies.
pacman2about 4 years ago
The F-35 was always over-ambiguous.<p>You may end up with something that can not fly far, can not fly high, can not carry a big payload, can not dog-fight, has an insane maintenance requirement and may, or may not be invisible. No plane can be invisible by definition. It may or may not be invisible on specific radars. The F-35 was not build to fight Iraq or Iran. I was build to fight China or Russia. This makes it a big bet.<p>As far as I know &quot;Superiority&quot; is required reading in MIT Engineering programs: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Superiority_(short_story)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Superiority_(short_story)</a>
spaetzleesserabout 4 years ago
I don’t have much an opinion about the F-35 but one thing I have noticed:<p>A lot of people are mentioning Skunkworks planes like SR-71 and U-2. I don’t think that’s a fair comparison. Skunkworks basically built highly specialized prototypes that performed well within their intended use but were super expensive to maintain and couldn’t be deployed on a larger scale. I would compare them more to an F1 team that can build great cars quickly but need 20 people just to get them ready for a lap.<p>Building impressive prototypes is way easier than building something on large scale in an efficient way.<p>Again, I don’t know much about the F-35 but Skunkworks is not the model.
Auncheabout 4 years ago
Is there any benefit for a multi-role fighter to have stealth? It seems like any applications where stealth is important, you might as well have a specialized air-superiority fighter.
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neurotech1about 4 years ago
It&#x27;s ironic the X-35 (Essentially F-35 prototype) came from the LM Skunkworks. The very same organization than once preached lean development. Kelly Johnson&#x27;s [0] Rules of Management should be required reading for any project manager or contracting official.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Kelly_Johnson_(engineer)#Kelly_Johnson&#x27;s_14_Rules_of_Management" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Kelly_Johnson_(engineer)#Kelly...</a>
AcerbicZeroabout 4 years ago
Gee I never would have guessed that a one size fits all replacement for every F- aircraft (and more than a few A-‘s) in the inventory for every branch would be difficult.<p>It was a trillion dollar stimulus package (or welfare) directed at the good old military industrial complex, plus it helps placate the chicken hawks in Congress who wanted pork for their district. Like most weapon systems developed in peacetime with unclear use cases, it’s kind of just an expensive tech demo.
nvoidabout 4 years ago
&gt;With a sticker price of around $100 million per plane, including the engine, the F-35 is expensive<p>Why say including the engine? Do they sell them without the engine?
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dillondoyleabout 4 years ago
If we are looking for &#x27;affordable, lightweight fighters&#x27; to &#x27;complement a small future fleet of&#x27; F35s sholdn&#x27;t we just build a ton of uber cheap drones?<p>The F35 is supposed to have amazing networked situational awareness (idk the military terms) which seems like a great platform to control a fleet of slave drones?<p>Kind of like an aircraft carrier, surrounded by a lot of support.
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beckingzabout 4 years ago
This is just an attempt to get funding for aircraft that will be bad.<p>Any new aircraft they develop to be cheaper will suffer the same scope and budget creep that the F-35 did.<p>We won&#x27;t send pilots out in planes that are known to have low survivability, so when the new aircraft is insufficiently stealthy&#x2F;fast&#x2F;survivable, more money will be spent to make it even worse than the F-35.
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mikeceabout 4 years ago
To quote Pierre Spray, one of the &quot;Fighter Mafia&quot; who had a hand in the design of the F-15 and drove the design of the F-16, the F-35 has been a massive success. What&#x27;s not asked is &quot;What is the mission of the F-35?&quot; and in Spray&#x27;s opinion the mission of the F-35 has been to drive funding to Lockheed.
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toddhabout 4 years ago
The time of planes has ended and the time of drones has begun it has.
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CivBaseabout 4 years ago
&gt; This is our ‘high end’ [fighter], we want to make sure we don’t use it all for the low-end fight.<p>What exactly is a &quot;low-end fight&quot; when it comes to the USAF?<p>Seems to me like the real problem is the F-35 was built to be a do-it-all plane when it would make far more sense to have a more varied fleet of more cost-effective, purpose-built aircraft.
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superkuhabout 4 years ago
Keep in mind that modern updates of the F-16 sell for about $100 million each. They are comparable in cost to the F-35.
fallingfrogabout 4 years ago
Probably the issue is that during wartime (and I think the Cold War counts) the object of a weapons program is to defend one’s country, whereas in the absence of any major foe the object of a weapons program is to spend money. From that standpoint the program was a spectacular success.
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cdiamandabout 4 years ago
I think I read that this generation of fighter requires a lot of rare earth materials?<p>I wonder, in light of a shifting geopolitical situation, if the next generation of fighter might be a stab at something the west can build completely independently on it&#x27;s own materials?
zafkaabout 4 years ago
John Boyd and the defense reform movement pretty much predicted this outcome from the beginning.
zero_deg_kevinabout 4 years ago
The people who brought us the F-35 want more money to build another new airplane? If the alternative is surrender, then I surrender without hesitation. The Air Force should just order fewer lattes, take a 20% budget cut, and do the best they can.
sam_goodyabout 4 years ago
On the other hand (also posted today): <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.realcleardefense.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2021&#x2F;02&#x2F;24&#x2F;israeli_air_force_could_soon_have_more_f-35_fighters_661588.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.realcleardefense.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2021&#x2F;02&#x2F;24&#x2F;israeli...</a><p>So, Israel flies lots of pilot hours and seems to think that the plane is a good deal.<p>The F-35 failed in its original goal of being lightweight, but is perhaps fine in the new goal of being a modern fancy fighter that dominate the sky. In which case, it has pivoted to become a success.<p>To extend their analogy, if you live near the Autobahn you would use your Ferrari daily?
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estaseuropanoabout 4 years ago
323bn spent.<p>There are 331 million Americans.<p>= every American paid around $1000 for this failure.<p>These funds could have gone into schools, roads, social programmes, ... Instead they served to enrich the small crowd owning the defense industry, with little to show for it all.
goatinaboatabout 4 years ago
<i>Fifteen years after the F-35’s first flight, the Air Force has just 250 of the jets.</i><p>This approach is very typical of the UK MoD as well. Buy fewer than planned of an item to &quot;save money&quot; without understanding that the R&amp;D cost is the same and will be spread over however many of them you buy. Then fatigue them to death because they are too few to meet the commitment, driving up maintenance costs and bringing forwards the date at which they will need to be replaced. Rinse and repeat.<p>The UK looks to be cutting its order from 138 to 48 F35s, but who knows what will be in next month&#x27;s defence review...
exar0815about 4 years ago
It&#x27;s quite simple. The successfull military programs are the ones building one thing to do one thing well. A-10, F-16, B-52. The Programs wanting to do everything in one System fail. F-35, Zumwalt, Eurofighter.
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fallingfrogabout 4 years ago
Interestingly enough Wikipedia says that the request for proposals for the F16 happened in January 1972 and the first completed fighter was accepted in January 1979. That’s 7 years, without the use of computers.
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noitanigamiabout 4 years ago
The F-35 failed from a certain institutional perspective by becoming a real plane. It is no longer a magic money pot where you could park your pet projects for funding.<p>As an actual fighter-plane, it is fine.
ansibleabout 4 years ago
So The F-35 costs too much.<p>In other industries, you would look for ways to cost-down the product. We often keep the same basic structure or components, but figure out less expensive ways to accomplish the same goals. Often, the revised product can be more durable and reliable too.<p>It is a shame that the incentives in weapons system development &#x2F; purchase don&#x27;t seem to help with this at all. It seems all the incentive is to make the product more and more expensive, and requiring more service.
dtx1about 4 years ago
So, they did a bradley <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA</a>
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WalterBrightabout 4 years ago
Take a look at how John Boyd upended the Air Force dev process, but of course that ended with his untimely death. Nobody else was able to do it.<p>He ran the &quot;Fighter Mafia&quot; which was responsible for the F-15 and F-16 aircraft.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Boyd-Fighter-Pilot-Who-Changed&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0316796883" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Boyd-Fighter-Pilot-Who-Changed&#x2F;dp&#x2F;031...</a>
kaonashiabout 4 years ago
The goal seems to have been to siphon as much money as possible to defense contractors while being politically unassailable, so I think it&#x27;s succeeded admirably.
callesggabout 4 years ago
The us does not need new fighter jets. The current generation drones is enough. If the us needs something it is cheaper and better air to air missiles. Not that there is anyone to fight anyways. A drone with 2 guided missiles that can be lost with no human casualty is allot better than any human carrying fighter aircraft could every be. And it does not have to be fast cause 1. the missiles are fast 2. it does not matter if the drone is lost.
draklor40about 4 years ago
Hmm, If I were the Indian govt. I&#x27;d atleast attempt to sell the Tejas to the US. Engine is American anyway (GE-404), Israeli radar and avionics compatible with a lot of Western block missiles. Would be an interesting reversal of fortunes.<p>It&#x27;s sad that the F-35 is in this state. The whole &quot;sensor fusion&quot; (no doubt, overhyped) sounded interesting. I am curious as to how well implemented the same system is on the SAAB Gripens.
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daedabout 4 years ago
This is not a new phenomenon:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA</a>
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bonestamp2about 4 years ago
&gt; The 17-ton, non-stealthy F-16 is too difficult to upgrade with the latest software, Brown explained. Instead of ordering fresh F-16s, he said, the Air Force should initiate a “clean-sheet design” for a new low-end fighter.<p>It&#x27;s more difficult to upgrade the F-16 systems than to design a whole new aircraft? I mean, maybe there are other reasons to design a new aircraft, but this doesn&#x27;t sound like the whole story.
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drewvolpeabout 4 years ago
Why start with a clean slate and develop a new plane? If the F-16 is still working, why not start with its design and upgrade the avionics and software?
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tibbydudezaabout 4 years ago
Remind me of the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle whose conflicting requirements from the Army&#x2F;Marines&#x2F;Navy was lampooned in a movie.
sinuhe69about 4 years ago
Maybe the best thing they can do now is to invest in swarm drones. The time of manned jets is over. Time for the machines.
TomMaszabout 4 years ago
It&#x27;s hard enough to build something like the F-35 for one customer, let alone three. Especially when those three customers have wildly differing requirements. Not that it can&#x27;t be done, but it can&#x27;t be done they way they did it. Unless they rethink their approach, the next fighter is doomed to the same fate.
Havocabout 4 years ago
The irony is the Chinese just copied it...but threw out the jack of all trades part. Which is the problem with the f35
noyesnoabout 4 years ago
The Finnish air force is in the final stages on deciding the purchase of next-gen fighters to replace the aging F&#x2F;A-18 Hornets. I wonder how this might affect the decision process.<p>(Currently on the short list are: F&#x2F;A-18 EF Super Hornet, F-35A Lightning II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and JAS 39E&#x2F;F Gripen.)
transfireabout 4 years ago
We&#x27;ll who could have guessed \s ... if only they had chosen the actual winner of the competition, Boeing, instead playing politics.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Joint_Strike_Fighter_program" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Joint_Strike_Fighter_program</a>
post_breakabout 4 years ago
I dunno Lockheed Martin managed to put out a banger so it&#x27;s not a total loss <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=xF7x0ZIFeVc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=xF7x0ZIFeVc</a> We at least got this instead of paying teachers more, or healthcare.
scarierabout 4 years ago
There&#x27;s a fantastic book called Augustine&#x27;s Laws where the eponymous author extrapolates trends in defense spending to reach the conclusion that &quot;in the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft.&quot;<p>I&#x27;m sure Lockheed will give us a great deal on it though...
gumbyabout 4 years ago
Why order more F-16s and miss out on all the rich contracting and design deal flow?<p>Plus because the length of development is longer than pharma&#x27;s, nobody involved in kicking off the project will be around to deal with the deployment problems.<p>Make hay while the sun shines.
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bArrayabout 4 years ago
How does the F35 compare with something like the EuroFighter Typhoon? I know the F35 took a lot of the orders away from the Typhoon, but the Typhoon has already been quite successful in multiple modern conflicts?<p>(EDIT) Accidentally hit &#x27;comment&#x27; before finishing.
adev_about 4 years ago
So on one side, we have a program that costed &gt; 406.5 Billions (2017) [¹] for a failed jet.<p>On the other side, we have the entire Apollo program that cost $156 billion (2018)[²], was stopped because too expensive. And we never have been able to go on the Moon since because &quot;cost&quot;.<p>Decisions that lead to the usage of public money by governments is definitively a mystery.<p>I wish the Lobbyists of the Army&#x2F;Lockheed Martin&#x2F;Military complex could do a bit of training for NASA and the research sector. Something tell me humankind could benefit a lot from it.<p>[¹]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning...</a><p>[²]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Apollo_program" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Apollo_program</a>
rcvabout 4 years ago
Maybe the fighter mafia will finally get their way after all. For anyone interested in some behind the scenes of how fighters get developed I recommend the book &quot;Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War.&quot;
umviabout 4 years ago
F-35 is perhaps one of the ultimate &quot;scope creep&quot; stories, though a lot of military vehicles have the same problems (tanks come to mind). Every big wig wants some bell or whistle for their use case baked in.
rayhendricksabout 4 years ago
It did not fail at providing money to the military-industrial-congressional complex. But of course we need more fighter jets instead of Medicare for all and UBI.<p>China is not going to send fighters over to Bomb the us mainland, this thing is totally unnecessary.
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Johnny555about 4 years ago
<i>the Air Force should initiate a “clean-sheet design” for a new low-end fighter.</i><p>I think that before a brand new manned fighter design leaves the assembly line and takes its first flight, unmanned drones will rule the air.
smktoonabout 4 years ago
The contractors of these projects know they can lock in long term deals for a ridiculous amount of money and take their time building and then after so long they end the project and then repeat.
cwkossabout 4 years ago
The F-35 didn&#x27;t fail. The goal was to provide porkbarrel jobs in the districts of the politicians who pushed for it.<p>It has been clear that it wasn&#x27;t going to be a useful platform for USAF for years.
openasocketabout 4 years ago
I disagree with the conclusions of this article, and feel that the author didn&#x27;t provide nearly enough evidence to back up a pretty big claim. The notion that the F-35 is a high-end and expensive asset is not some new admission, nor does it mean it is a failure. While it was meant to be a lower-end plain initially, it hasn&#x27;t been considered that way in a long time. And while I agree that the F-35 is expensive and we may need to supplement it with a lower-end fighter, that&#x27;s hardly a failure. That&#x27;s exactly why we ended up developing the F-16: because we needed a lower-end fighter to supplement the F-15.<p>There&#x27;s plenty to criticize about the F-35, particularly about the procurement strategy and development cycle. But we are starting to see real results. The F-35 has performed very well in exercises like Red Flag. And I don&#x27;t think you can understate the importance of the F-35B. Yes, it has markedly worse availability rates and maintenance issues than the other variants, but that&#x27;s pretty common for STOVL aircraft, like the Harrier it is replacing. And not only is the F-35B the only stealth STOVL, it&#x27;s also the first production STOVL aircraft capable of supersonic speed.<p>I also think it&#x27;s weird to imply the reason the F-35 has failed (and I don&#x27;t belive it has) because it&#x27;s been made in three different variants. That really isn&#x27;t the reason for all of these delays. There are several examples of aircraft being able to work in multiple roles, like the F-4 and the French Rafale. The fundamental issue is in avionics and logistics. All of these sensors and systems are very complex and difficult to integrate together. Any aircraft with a modern, full-featured AESA radar and IRST sensors sees a protracted development time.<p>In terms of purchasing new, lower-end aircraft, I do think that&#x27;s a good idea. Depending on where you want that to fit in in terms of doctrine, you&#x27;ve got a couple of options. The USAF is already starting to purchase some F-15EX planes. It&#x27;s got decent range, good performance in air-to-air and air-to-ground engagements, and it&#x27;s based on a mature platform which should reduce costs and improve availability. But it&#x27;s a fairly big beast, and operational costs will still be higher than legacy F-16s. The other option is to go with a genuine light fighter like the JAS-39 Gripen. Cheaper, much lower operational costs, and capable of operating from short, rudimentary runways, but shorter range and less payload capacity. I also think there&#x27;s space for a &quot;featherweight&quot; plane, like the A-29. When we&#x27;re engaging Taliban targets that don&#x27;t have anti-aircraft defenses beyond small arms fire, a simple turboprop will get the job done efficiently and cheaply, and that frees up jets to be used in other theaters.
uniqueidabout 4 years ago
Pierre Sprey has been trashing the F35 persuasively for years <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;N1Z_DuF87Sc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;N1Z_DuF87Sc</a>
juancnabout 4 years ago
Why not just drop the manned fighters and develop drones instead?
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breckabout 4 years ago
Experience is what you get when you don&#x27;t get what you want. I wouldn&#x27;t call this a failure by any means. Failure would be to stop pivoting&#x2F;adjusting.
totalZeroabout 4 years ago
The article doesn&#x27;t substantiate the headline. It&#x27;s like saying that the navy admits that battleships have failed because of the development of LCS.
hokumguruabout 4 years ago
We need more Andurils - small (relatively) defense startups that bring innovation and competition to the table with modern approaches to project management.
t_minus_3about 4 years ago
They should be congratulated and promoted. Failing is courageous - you can move to next better thing from the learnings. F36 ???
zabzonkabout 4 years ago
And from the UK&#x27;s perspective, this useless aircraft has also driven the production of two useless aircraft carriers.
sschuellerabout 4 years ago
Great and Switzerland still has this feature crep dumpster fire on its list of possible planes to buy. 32 of them....
bigpumpkinabout 4 years ago
Other than F-35, what are the US going to field on its carriers? Super-hornets until 2050?
stuaxoabout 4 years ago
How much money has the UK wasted on these at the same time as implementing austerity ?
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m00dyabout 4 years ago
Turkey got kicked out of this programme. It can&#x27;t be a coincidence right ?
radium3dabout 4 years ago
Someone trying to short Northrop? I see them flying over my house all the time
neycodaabout 4 years ago
And this is why Congress will dump a billion more dollars into it.
naebotherabout 4 years ago
Maybe the real treasure was the jobs we made along the way.
simonblackabout 4 years ago
Just a 21st century Brewster Buffalo.
ranmanabout 4 years ago
So when can we get our tax refund?
wly_cdgrabout 4 years ago
F-35, the Jira of fighter planes
wintorezabout 4 years ago
Over-engineering always fails.
fnord77about 4 years ago
are manned fighter aircraft even relevant anymore?
mjflabout 4 years ago
this is just the beast asking you to feed it
shirroabout 4 years ago
Time for NASA to admit the same for SLS&#x2F;Orion.
wly_cdgrabout 4 years ago
The F-35 JIRA
Vadervabout 4 years ago
Once again proving what Eisenhower said ...
marshmallow_12about 4 years ago
so the us needs a lightweight multi role fighter? we have that already in Europe. it&#x27;s called the eurofighter typhoon.someone in the pentagon should just pick up the phone and order some. they come in opened-never used, refurbished, new, or as a diy kit, they also pretty good at what they do. if they buy enough, i&#x27;m sure eurofighter will chuck in a free bomb or 2.
StanislavPetrovabout 4 years ago
I wonder if that also means that they are going to cut funding to the astroturfers who show up in every thread in every forum on every post singing the praises of the F-35 now.
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vhcdabout 4 years ago
Wasn&#x27;t the goal of the F-35 to sell an inferior aircraft to allies and keep the F-22 for the real action?<p>I don&#x27;t know the sales figures, but it may have been a success using those metrics.
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