The Black Swan and the Bell Curve

Wow, that author is a truly committed doom-and-gloomer. If I were one too, I'm sure I'd find his argument persuasive. But apparently I'm wearing the wrong colored glasses to perceive his alleged "plague of violent and weird weather in the last few years" as evidence of more than selective attention and status quo bias.

As a German reader I think I can say that the part about Germany is wrong.<p>In Germany the whole deal is about renewable energy. Even though nuclear energy does not produce greenhouse gasses and <i>seems</i> to be clean, it is by no means a renewable energy source. For most Germans, clean energy is certainly not the goal, but sustainable and renewable energy is. The article totally confuses these two things.<p>Also, a majority of Germans believes that nuclear energy is just too dangerous to be handled by humans. (Yes, we are pussies in this regard.)<p>The commitment to phase out nuclear energy does not mean to be less commited to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In fact it only means that you have to be more focussed on your goals than before.<p>Personally, I heavily doubt that the cut of 40% in greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 (compared to the level of 1990) will work out. But it is nevertheless good to have these ambitious goals. They have probably led to better legislation to encourage the use of renewable energy than in other countries. On some level these goals put pressure on politicians to do something. If they lead to only 5% reduction, I would already consider it a success.<p>If that scale for success seems stupid to you, you are right. But this is the measurement of success I put on politicians. I don't expect much from them. That's what I learned from the past. Most of them can only think until the next election. 2020 is just too distant to be important for most politicians.

I think the author might be misinterpreting The Black Swan Theory when he says this: " . . . Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Benoit Mandelbrot postulate that seemingly very improbable events take place because the probability distribution turns out (mainly in hindsight!) to have "fat tails"--that is, instead of conforming to the "normal" Bell Shape form, the distribution has a shape in which the probability of extreme events is greater than normal."<p>I think what NNT is trying to say is not that the probability of the tails extreme events is greater than normal but rather that these Black Swan events are rare and we tend not to predict them due to our bell curve obsession. When they do happen however they're game-changers.

A Black Swan in this context would be a shock to the system that no one saw coming nor could see coming. For instance a change in the sun which would drastically warm or cool the earth far beyond the effects of CO2. Maybe a natural disaster or an industrial accident that had a cascade effect that would reach beyond what anyone could have seen coming. You can't do anything about either of these things but that won't stop people from suggesting it could have been avoided with the right (or more of): "fill in the blank with your favorite solution to all problems in life."

Yes, during the campaign, Chosen of Oprah, Blessed Be He, promised to ratchet up regulations to shut down the coal fired electric power plants. But that's now too little, too late because as we know:<p>(1) Humans are evil. They are sinful, greedy, duplicitous, violent, irrational, and destructive.<p>The claims that the concerns about human caused significant global warming are just a flim flam fraud are just deceptions of the Devil.<p>(2) Evil humans are destroying the planet, the 100% all-natural, delicate, sensitive, pure, pristine, precious environment.<p>The weather was never like this before evil humans started working with the bow and arrow.<p>(3) For this evil transgression, humans will be made to suffer terrible retribution of extreme weather, failed crops, farms and forests turned into deserts, lowlands flooded, cute, cuddly, sweet, pure white baby polar bears drowning in the ice-free Arctic, penguins starving, and worse. The whales will die, and when the whales die, the oceans will die and then we will die, and the whales are starting to die.<p>(4) For this retribution, humans need redemption or death from their sin, evil, and transgressions. The only possible redemption is sacrifice. We have to start by giving up computers, telephones, airplanes, plastics, TV, yes, even including the soaps, electric power, cars, frozen foods, and McDonald's French fries. Then we must give up synthetic fabrics, permanent press, washing machines, paper plates, deodorant, and women's bras and panties.<p>Humans must abstain from sex.<p>But this will not be enough, not nearly enough: The sun is about to stop moving across the sky, and the only solution is to have a holy Mayan priest hold ceremonies pouring the blood of evil humans on a sacred rock. The only qualified priest is Saint Laureate Al Guru aided by the dedicated, devoted Guru Acolytes lead by Sister Laurie.<p>The blood will come from sacrificing virgins (when they first arrived at the ceremony with Saint Guru).<p>Only in this way, along with Cap and Trade and the EPA, can the planet be saved.