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Moore's Law for Everything

419 pointsby iceyabout 4 years ago

75 comments

nindalfabout 4 years ago
&gt; We will discover new jobs–we always do after a technological revolution<p>CGP grey put this well<p>&gt; Imagine a pair of horses in the early 1900s talking about technology. One worries all these new mechanical muscles (cars etc) will make horses unnecessary. The other horse reminds him that everything so far has made their lives easier - remember all that farm work? Remember running coast-to-coast delivering mail? Remember riding into battle? All terrible! These new city jobs are pretty cushy, and with so many humans in the cities there will be more jobs for horses than ever. Even if this car thingy takes off, he might say, there will be new jobs for horses we can&#x27;t imagine.<p>&gt; But you know what happened. There are still working horses, but nothing like before. The horse population peaked in 1915 - from that point on it was nothing but down.<p>&gt; There&#x27;s no law of economics that says that better technology makes more better jobs for horses. It sounds shockingly dumb to even say that out loud. But swap horses for humans and suddenly people think it sounds about right.<p>&quot;Humans need not apply&quot; - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU</a>
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joe_the_userabout 4 years ago
<i>In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.</i><p>Aside from the other points, taking &quot;AI&quot; as it exists in it&#x27;s present form (deep neural networks and related) as specifically the bringer of unlimited wealth certainly puffs up the various &quot;AI companies&quot; notably OpenAI (It should be noted that OpenAI&#x27;s most famous product, GPT-3, can generate strings that sound a lot like legal or medical advice but it so far &quot;demonstrates non-understanding on a regular basis&quot;. Don&#x27;t follow it&#x27;s advice to kill yourself, for example).<p>It really should be said that deep learning, in particular, is still just one technology that&#x27;s very good at some things, kind of impressive but not functional at other things, and just unable to do other things (actual understanding of biology, for example, seems well beyond them). I don&#x27;t think this situation has changed since deep learning began it&#x27;s hype cycle (which isn&#x27;t to say it&#x27;s &quot;nothing&quot;, it just doesn&#x27;t seem like to bring us &quot;everything&quot;, a scenario the article literally sketches).<p>Automation has proceeded apace, automation in general has brought us enough resources right now to give minimal comfort to most people in the planet (as people have noted).<p>But automation has generally succeeded in situations where everything is controlled - ie, factories. Self-driving cars are forever five years away given the 5% or 1% or whatever level of unpredictable variable involved. Progress on robots that can interact well with either humans or &quot;the messy real world&quot; even in very limited terms has been painfully slow and I expect this to continue.
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lucasmullensabout 4 years ago
&gt; If everyone owns a slice of American value creation, everyone will want America to do better: collective equity in innovation and in the success of the country will align our incentives.<p>I kind of doubt that. At Google we&#x27;re paid in part with shares of GOOG, but at Google&#x27;s scale that&#x27;s just treated as cash compensation. At my level, nothing I do affects the stock price, and most Googlers feel this way.<p>Sure, I want Google to do well, and I want America to do well too. Both of them doing well benefits me. But it doesn&#x27;t really encourage me to do something different day-to-day.
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csomarabout 4 years ago
&gt; democracy can become antagonistic as people seek to vote money away from each other.<p>...<p>&gt; We should therefore focus on taxing capital rather than labor<p>I find it amazing that these &quot;thinkers&quot; don&#x27;t see the irony. You are &quot;afraid&quot; that people are going to vote you away from your wealth via democracy; but then you feel privileged to decide how this wealth should be taxed. Since AIs are getting smarter than humans, maybe we should let them decide?<p>&gt; and AI teachers that can diagnose and explain exactly what a student doesn’t understand.<p>Since AIs are smarter than humans, why bother teaching humans at all? Unless there is a point where a developed human brain could outsmart the AI, it seems to be a waste and emotionally guided.<p>&gt; We could do something called the American Equity Fund.<p>Any solution that is not universal is bound the fail. These companies can move overseas to cut their tax bill. It also easier than moving now since all they need to move is data; electronics being already made in Asia.<p>The reality is, there is no place for humans in an AI driven world where AI is smarter than humans and robots can make stuff. Realizing that is the first step to move forward in this new world.
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fungiblecogabout 4 years ago
Maybe in the Hacker News echo chamber this all sounds plausible.<p>But where I live in the real world all I see is software getting worse and worse. It doesn&#x27;t do ANYTHING automatically anymore and can&#x27;t be scripted, every &#x27;app&#x27; is a silo and has to be constantly tended to by humans. Useful functionality is actually removed and more time is spent on UI visuals than making it usable. This is made worse by the tendency of surveillance software to require humans to interact with it constantly in order to harvest information, interactions or to display ads.<p>At some point this bubble will burst, the ridiculous tech valuations will crash and we&#x27;ll be back looking for solutions to real problems again.
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AussieWog93about 4 years ago
I don&#x27;t buy this whole idea of technological progress being exponential, let alone monotonic.<p>The average piece of software made in 2021 does less, runs slower and is more difficult to maintain than the average piece of software from 2001.<p>Consumer-grade CPUs haven&#x27;t seen a drastic increase in performance for around a decade too. I&#x27;m still running an i7-2600k that was released in 2010. A current-tech Ryzen 7 has maybe 30-50% better performance per core, and 2x the number of cores. In 2000, we were still using 800Mhz single-core Athlons.<p>More broadly, we haven&#x27;t seemed to have a breakthrough on the scale of penicillin, the steam engine, the assembly line or the transistor since the turn of the millennium (with the possible exception of CRISPR).<p>I just don&#x27;t seem to be able to share in the optimism of people like Altman and Kurzweil when it comes to technological progress like this.
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tvanantwerpabout 4 years ago
Imagine: 1) I&#x27;m the owner of a single family home 2) My income drops to roughly zero because of AI 3) My property values go through the roof 4) I now owe 2.5% of these sky-rocketing property values every year, to be paid from my non-existent income<p>Doesn&#x27;t this scenario lead to me either selling my &quot;gifted&quot; shares to pay property taxes, or ending up a renter at best and homeless at worst? I can imagine this proposal leading to <i>greater</i> concentrations of wealth rather than spreading it around.
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daxfohlabout 4 years ago
Unfortunately I don&#x27;t see price of healthcare coming down, just more doctors out of work. AI in healthcare will be highly regulated, probably monopolized, and tons of artificial barriers to entry created by corporate lobbyists. The AI quality won&#x27;t make much of a difference: the winners will be the stodgy bureaucratic companies with political influence and just enough &quot;AI&quot; to be useful. WebMD will probably go offline and things like it will become illegal, &quot;for the public good.&quot; Medicine isn&#x27;t expensive because doctors have gotten more expensive; it&#x27;s expensive because the industry as a whole needs to maximize its revenue, and AI changes nothing in that respect.<p>Entertainment will keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but for services people actually need: education, healthcare, and soon food, it&#x27;s going to continue to be &quot;how much can you afford to pay?&quot; Or worse, &quot;how much can the government afford to pay on your behalf after we&#x27;ve milked you for everything.&quot;<p>(I hope I&#x27;m wrong.)
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zz865about 4 years ago
I still dont really know about AI taking over the world. The most expensive things in my budget are housing, car, healthcare, childcare, flights&#x2F;hotels, food. Does AI really change that much? There are definitely too many over-educated people out there already, I&#x27;d think this is more of an impact &amp; setting up disappointment than the bots.
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msikoraabout 4 years ago
&gt; technological progress follows an exponential curve<p>This is a mantra that I keep hearing, but if I compare the progress from 1900 to 1960 and then from 1960 to 2020, it almost seems like it has been flattening... Sure, we have internet and fancy computers, but the progress from 1900 to 1960 was immense: air travel, electrification, proliferation of automobiles, immense progress in medicine, space exploration, nuclear energy. Even the MOSFET transistor was invented in 1959.<p>Not saying there wasn&#x27;t any progress between 1960 and 2020, but it sure doesn&#x27;t look &quot;accelerating&quot;...
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nitwit005about 4 years ago
&gt; In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.<p>Bad medical or legal advice is completely possible. It exists now.<p>Giving good medical or legal advice requires, at a minimum, being able to carry out a full conversation to investigate the problem, including understanding things not directly related to the field. There&#x27;s no sign of getting that any time soon.<p>Efficiency improvements in an area like the law may also result in people imposing new burdens, eroding the efficiency gains. Laws that once would have seemed too burdensome will no longer be seen as such.
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xrdabout 4 years ago
There are some really smart ideas in here, and some really smart assessments of existing policies.<p>The thing I was most taken aback by was Sam&#x27;s suggestion to tax privately held land, and capital (as opposed to labor tax).<p>I would love to have Sam and PG go toe to toe and discuss how Sam&#x27;s proposal is different from the wealth tax post PG made. I don&#x27;t immediately see how Sam&#x27;s idea avoids the &quot;wealth tax compounds&quot; problem (his words not mine) that PG is worried about.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;paulgraham.com&#x2F;wtax.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;paulgraham.com&#x2F;wtax.html</a>
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jay_kyburzabout 4 years ago
This essay doesn&#x27;t address any of the key problems often raised when talking about AI and UBI.<p>Here is Australia we are already seeing one the effects of very cheap stuff. Skilled labor is significantly more expensive than buying things, so anything that has to have an Australian involved is ridiculously expensive. Calling the Plumber to fix a drain? That&#x27;s a week of groceries or perhaps a new TV.<p>At some point soon there is going to be a fairly significant upheaval, not just when AI takes some peoples jobs, but when it&#x27;s just not worth it to pay somebody $200 an hour to do something for you. I think to some extent, peoples time is linked to the price of products you can buy.<p>Eventually, Plumbers won&#x27;t need $200 an hour to buy their own things, they can drop their rates. Wages everywhere might fall.<p>Taxing land sounds fair enough, but I was under the impression we are already subsidizing a lot of farming anyhow, and since we are racing to the bottom on food pricing, there is not much profit to be made on food anyhow.<p>Any aren&#x27;t we supposed to be reclaiming land to turn back into national parks, planting trees, and capturing carbon.
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ralph84about 4 years ago
&gt; This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need<p>We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won&#x27;t change that.
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aerosmileabout 4 years ago
I respect Sam and believe that his thinking is usually a few years ahead of mine - with passage of time, I generally tend to agree with his statements more and more. He seems really bullish on AI, and while he might be a bit biased based on his current role, I think that his public statements are truly authentic because he&#x27;s putting his money where his mouth is (he left a coveted role at YC for his current role at OpenAI).<p>That just makes me worry that we&#x27;re likely to enter an AI cycle in entrepreneurship that will be characterized by high barriers to entry for new entrepreneurs. I have so many ideas for future companies, and none of them will be feasible if in each vertical I have to compete against companies with mature AI capabilities. I suppose there is a possibility of someone offering AI as a service that will be good enough to go up against the FAANG companies, but I imagine that anyone with such capabilities might be more likely to just own the whole opportunity (eg: Red Antler switching from helping startups with brand building to Red Antler building their own brands). I think there are still opportunities out there for a VC-backed company that starts out in a garage, but that window seems to be closing - for both, entrepreneurs and VCs as well (FAANG companies are not going to take any venture capital).<p>I really hope I am wrong and would love to hear counterpoints (apart from the usual &quot;they have been saying this for the last 50 years and it always turned out different&quot;). It&#x27;s important to realize that 50 years ago the world was very different for entrepreneurs, and I have no reason to believe that the current cycle is just that - a cycle that will pass and that the world will return to its previous state of making it exceptionally difficult to go up against big companies. The best counterargument I can offer is PG&#x27;s essay on the history of corporations and how startups will become a permanent part of our future (don&#x27;t have the time to look up the link, but hope that someone else can find it).
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unreal6about 4 years ago
&quot;This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need, if we as a society manage it responsibly.&quot;<p>I worry that this is already the case, and we are already failing miserably. Globally we seem to have enough resources to feed, clothe, and shelter the global population and in a number of cases (see the USA) to be unable to do so.
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iMuzzabout 4 years ago
Great read.<p>&gt; “We could do something called the American Equity Fund. The American Equity Fund would be capitalized by taxing companies above a certain valuation 2.5% of their market value each year, payable in shares transferred to the fund..”<p>I could be in favor of something like this.<p>However, I’d be curious to hear Sam’s thoughts on what kind of vehicle do we use to <i>ensure</i> that this equity actually reaches end-users?<p>I can make a very strong historical case that the government is not the right vehicle for this to work. You could also just look at the most recent $1.9T stimulus bill — where only a fraction of it went out as checks to Americans in need.
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thatfrenchguyabout 4 years ago
&gt; AI will lower the cost of goods and services, because labor is the driving cost at many levels of the supply chain. If robots can build a house on land you already own from natural resources mined and refined onsite, using solar power, the cost of building that house is close to the cost to rent the robots. And if those robots are made by other robots, the cost to rent them will be much less than it was when humans made them.<p>The issue with rising costs of housing is not (completely) linked to labor costs, it&#x27;s land value, regulatory capture, bad infrastructure, and heavily marketed house-in-the-suburbs-as-the-only-way-to-live.
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justicezyxabout 4 years ago
I am more and more amused by Sam&#x27;s ambition of describing so-called plans for Humans, while at the same time is 1 year younger than myself, who had co-founded a failed startup loopt based on sharing location information; and joined YC because of largely Paul Graham and him being somewhat liked each other without much deep connections, and eventually become chairman of YC; then now co-founded OpenAI as the one working business side of the org.<p>I don&#x27;t think Sam is using his time and energy wisely. But I could be wrong. Who knows.<p>Edit: to answer the question in the reply.<p>I don&#x27;t know what he should be doing, exactly. But Sam probably would do more value by focusing on his work at OpenAI and figure out a way to make their work more &quot;open&quot; and &quot;accessible&quot; to puny humans who does not possess a billion dollar computing cluster.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sam_Altman" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sam_Altman</a>
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jonmc12about 4 years ago
I think the foundation of the argument about the application and utility of AI needs to go deeper. A good starting point might be to address the arguments that Arvind Narayanan brings up in &quot;How to recognize AI snake oil&quot;[1]. ie:<p><pre><code> - &quot;Much of what’s being sold as &#x27;AI&#x27; today is snake oil — it does not and cannot work.&quot; - &quot;AI excels at some tasks, but can’t predict social outcomes.&quot; </code></pre> The way that AI &quot;joins the workplace&quot; matters a lot to discuss the reciprocal policy. AI progress in certain domains has been amazing, while other domains may require a philosophically different approach to leverage computation and intelligence for true productivity gains.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.princeton.edu&#x2F;~arvindn&#x2F;talks&#x2F;MIT-STS-AI-snakeoil.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.princeton.edu&#x2F;~arvindn&#x2F;talks&#x2F;MIT-STS-AI-snake...</a>
AndrewBissellabout 4 years ago
As with so much Silicon Valley stuff, I think the latest evangelizing for AI is probably just laundering military and counterinsurgency tech as some kind of utopian consumer godsend. Obviously AGI will remain a pipe dream, but what we <i>will</i> get is autonomous robotic soldiers with no conscience (that can be counted on to put down unrest without questioning their orders), or listening software that can monitor everyone&#x27;s communications to identify targets in real time.
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xiphias2about 4 years ago
I have an idea for sharing wealth: Why not create a non-profit organization that democratizes AI by sharing its models openly with everyone?
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_fizz_buzz_about 4 years ago
Here is my perspective working in industrial automation field (think of these for 4 points as matrix):<p>1) Things that are easy to automate are already automated.<p>2) Many things that are difficult to automate but increase productivity a lot are already automated.<p>3) Many things that easy to automate and increase productivity only a little bit are already automated.<p>4) Things that are difficult to automate and increase productivity only a little bit NOT automated.<p>We constantly make advances in automating things, but the low hanging fruits and high productivity gain things are already gone. It&#x27;s not so clear to me, that our advances are keeping pace with the things that are left to automate. I feel the point about exponential growth is completely non-obvious. What if the tasks we are automating also get exponentially more difficult and&#x2F;or the productivity gains decrease exponentially.
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cbauabout 4 years ago
Sold on the premise that when AI gets here it will change everything. What I don&#x27;t have a good grasp on is how fast it will come. Recent feats of AI are very impressive, but it&#x27;s hard for me to put it on a trendline that would line it up with massive changes coming with 10 years. Predictions around AI have made similar claims for the last 50 years. Why is it different this time?
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sneakabout 4 years ago
It&#x27;s a bummer that while he starts out talking about a global revolution that will profoundly affect all human beings, he smoothly transitions into tax policy opinions and suggestions that, in a best case scenario, will affect about 3.5% of human beings (Americans).<p>Most of the world is not American, and for every American, there are around 19 people who are not.<p>&gt; <i>If everyone owns a slice of American value creation, everyone will want America to do better:</i><p>Americans say &quot;everyone&quot; when they mean &quot;Americans&quot;. &quot;Everyone&quot; is actually 20x larger. (In a section on inclusivity, no less!)
hykoabout 4 years ago
<i>If robots can build a house on land you already own from natural resources mined and refined onsite</i><p>...<p>If you think that’s cool, you’ll love my upcoming seminar: “How To Live Mortgage Free Using A House and Land You Already Paid Cash For!”
savant_penguinabout 4 years ago
&quot;Even more power will shift from labor to capital.&quot;<p>You can say the same thing for machines replacing workers at farms, but hardly anyone would rather ban tractors for taking people&#x27;s jobs<p>You can say the exact same thing for bank tellers replaced by ATM&#x27;s but no one wants to wait in long lines to withdraw money and pay expensive service fees<p>The list goes on and on<p>Google maps (how often people need physical maps anymore?)<p>Gmail (goodbye to a lot of physical mailing service)<p>Excel (1 accountant can do the work of tens of more accountants of the past)<p>Forklifts take away many body breaking jobs<p>Jobs do disappear, but very few people would rather go back
paraschopraabout 4 years ago
Not everything is following Moore&#x27;s law.<p>The R&amp;D efficiency in pharma is exponentially _declining_. See Eroom&#x27;s law, for example: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Eroom%27s_law" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Eroom%27s_law</a>
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dzinkabout 4 years ago
Sam, you have a lot of great ideas and a lot of assumptions in this essay. Just like the parameters in deep learning models, we can’t know what will work in different scenarios until we can model it reliably. Time to build a worldwide game, version of the Sims if you will, to test different assumptions and global activity based on them. Happy to help on this too.<p>Some big assumptions: - Childcare can or cannot be handled by robots (very likely not if you need to raise healthy humans).<p>- Healthcare can or cannot be handled by robots.<p>- Humans will enjoy lack of employment without mental damage and how to retrain or provide for those needs.<p>In the game each player should be assigned a random individual with different roles in society - so they can see all angles (from different speeds of income accruing, to health, to time demands of their job, to responsibilities that need handled, etc). You will see all kinds of bugs that way - from individual liquidity crunches, to mental breakdowns, to industries that need more innovation&#x2F;AI.<p>You can run any assumption in different epochs and get the answer by humans who play along worldwide.<p>That way when the rules are about to change due to an innovation, we can run a fun game simulation instead of running the risk of anarchy which kills a lot of people.<p>It is critically important to think about how we structure the future based on the technology we unlock. My pull request on this essay would be to propose we build a test suite for that first. Maybe we can use AI to simulate outcomes too after a good number of human runs.
sendtown_expwyabout 4 years ago
I like this idea, but is the technical implementation of a progressive social policy (whether it be a tax on equity versus something else) actually the hard part?<p>Alternative take: the hard part is that the US is heterogeneous and people just don&#x27;t trust each other to not abuse benefits. (You could also say it&#x27;s racist). How could we give equity to every person when we can&#x27;t even seem to agree that they deserve basic healthcare?
hooandeabout 4 years ago
This is definitely good thinking, though it seems unrealistic.<p>The stuff about AI is just science fiction. We&#x27;ll see major advances in the next 15 years, but it&#x27;s unlikely that there will be a compounding intelligence situation where robots are able to program and build other robots without human intervention. There&#x27;s no scientific evidence that this will happen, but it&#x27;s certainly possible on a long enough time frame.<p>A 2.5% property tax is a political impossibility. That&#x27;s like $500&#x2F;mo for the average homeowner. And homeowners vote. This would only happen in the most dire of economic circumstances. The remote possibility of super ai in the coming decades is not one of those circumstances.<p>I&#x27;m also not so sure about the idea of taxing corporations based on their market cap. Market cap isn&#x27;t &quot;real&quot; taxable money like that. It looks like there&#x27;s been research published on the idea [0], but it&#x27;s kind of just one person.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=1517925" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=1517925</a>
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edemabout 4 years ago
This is an absolutely horrible idea. As Raoul Pal always says: &quot;Capital will find a way. It always does.&quot;. Let&#x27;s take a look at some examples with real estate:<p>George owns a flat, he lives in it. He owns no other properties and he works a low-wage job What will happen? He&#x27;ll pay the 2.5% for a while then he&#x27;ll be forced to sell.<p>Jane owns 5 houses and lives in one. She doesn&#x27;t have a job, he lives off of the rent payments. What will happen? Jane will raise the prices by 2.5% every year.<p>Plot twist: George is now renting from Jane. Since George works a low-wage job he&#x27;ll have to move out after a few years to an even smaller apartment, and at some point he&#x27;ll be practically homeless.<p>The same is true for companies. They&#x27;ll just raise the prices by 2.5% creating a price inflation that will hit __everybody__ who doesn&#x27;t have a company or real estate.<p>Real life example: where I live there is a government program that will let certain kinds of people (newly wed couples) to get their VAT back from buying a house. What happened to the market? Real estate prices went up by 5% and everybody who is not in this bracket now suffers.
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dflockabout 4 years ago
This is predicated on taxing capital and giving to labor, once labor is no longer necessary for capital.<p>This isn&#x27;t going to happen, absent an _enormous_ crisis to precipitate this kind of change. No way are the establishment going to allow this kind of thing to happen ahead of time. The kind of political engineering required to do any of this is far beyond anything that the US government is currently capable of.
chrislloydabout 4 years ago
If anybody is interested in reading more about Henry George and a land-value tax, Radical Markets[1] has an in-depth chapter on it.<p>[1]: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;radicalmarkets.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;radicalmarkets.com</a>
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puchatekabout 4 years ago
&gt; there will be dramatically more wealth to go around<p>There is already a dramatic amount of wealth to go around and yet it is held by fewer and fewer individuals and organizations every year. Just like there is enough food in the world to feed everybody. Our world is not optimized for distributing resources evenly. Can AI change this?
Pandabobabout 4 years ago
A little off-topic but I’ve been thinking about technological progress and its impact on inflation recently. In 2018 Jay Powell partly blamed Amazon (and others) for pushing prices down so much that the fed wasn’t able to hit its inflation targets [0]. Isn’t Sam’s vision also inherently deflationary? If consumer prices keep dropping due to technological progress, shouldn’t we keep printing money?<p>I’m still a little sceptical of Sam’s vision coming to pass, but if it does, it’ll have some weird consequences on monetary policy.<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;03&#x2F;01&#x2F;new-fed-chairman-says-amazon-helped-keep-inflation-low.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;03&#x2F;01&#x2F;new-fed-chairman-says-amazon...</a>
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aksssabout 4 years ago
&gt; “Moore’s Law for everything” should be the rallying cry of a generation whose members can’t afford what they want.&quot;<p>Ugh. Moore&#x27;s law doesn&#x27;t apply to everything, and in fact doesn&#x27;t apply to most things, and wishing it did won&#x27;t change that.<p>I think Vaclav Smil did an effective diagnosis of this at the Driva Climate Investment Meeting: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;gkj_91IJVBk?t=1132" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;gkj_91IJVBk?t=1132</a>
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ch33zerabout 4 years ago
I think that this essay assumes the possibility of infinite growth. That runs into the reality that we are actively running into the limitations of our interactions with the natural world. What else is climate change but an indication that we&#x27;ve reached the limit of what we can produce using our current technology. Now, it is possible that we can find a way to reduce our impact on the earth while continuing to grow, but I&#x27;m not sure that we can do that AND generate the astronomical growth this essay requires.
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Barrin92about 4 years ago
This is basically the generic singularity blogpost that comes out every few months or so. And at this point could probably be written by GPT-3, would be a nice experiment if someone could tell the difference<p>Either way two major things wrong with this. First off, there isn&#x27;t actually a whole lot of evidence that we&#x27;re living in the most innovative time in history and that the robots are coming for us. Productivity growth is low, employment is high. If technology was eliminating labour, the opposite would be happening. We&#x27;d be growing at 7% per year while we&#x27;d have bazillions of unemployed people roaming the street.<p>Secondly, and this is very typical for SV liberalism&#x2F;centrism there is absolutely no understanding of power in this article and we just solve things by doing &#x27;the right policies&#x27; which is &#x27;simple&#x27; and then everything is fine. Of course if that was so simple we&#x27;d already be doing it to begin with.<p>We don&#x27;t need some futuristic 2200 utopia to solve child poverty. We actually could do all the things mentioned in the article <i>literally right now</i>. You could have been taxing the shit out of land in 1800. The question Sam Altman needs to answer is why the technolords of the future don&#x27;t just simply hire some Terminator Pinkertons to mow down everyone who wants to get their hands on some of their riches.
Andy_G11about 4 years ago
Society is currently not ideally structured to realise much of human potential (setting aside how some individuals with immense initiative will nevertheless succeed). Piketty has described how wealth concentration arises and is perpetuated and has drawn a link to reduced overall productivity. He has also proposed a wealth tax to circulate cash and resources to combat stagnation and inequality - your tax proposals on capital seem similar. A change in the distribution of income across society might lead to an uplift in the origination and development of new concepts and ideas, but to tackle some ideas will still demand hubs of resource concentration in some fields, e.g. CERN, pharma labs, space exploration, quantum computing, etc. Perhaps enabling many more nuclei of independent development will result in a snowballing effect which will ultimately create more of these large scale resource hubs, but even so I think that there will have to be an adjustment in the collaborative protocols we use to really significantly increase the growth, development and employment of talent and potential that is latent and currently wasted. Still, a great and relevant article.
second--shiftabout 4 years ago
I read some time ago (I think as a link here) the following: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;dothemath.ucsd.edu&#x2F;2012&#x2F;04&#x2F;economist-meets-physicist&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;dothemath.ucsd.edu&#x2F;2012&#x2F;04&#x2F;economist-meets-physicist...</a><p>One of my takeaways is that growth cannot exist forever; there is a thermal bound to how much energy (economy = energy consumption, if you reduce it enough) we can produce and consume. Another commenter posted that if you zoom out enough, economic growth is exponential. I tend to agree, at least backwards-looking, so I think of intervals of economic progress as &quot;doubling&quot; (ie, logarithmic instead of linear).<p>We only have a few more doublings before we hit some serious thermal discomfort. The &quot;AI Revolution&quot; as dreamed in the OP I think is largely impossible: if the AI&#x2F;Robots&#x2F;Whatever get sufficiently advanced they will require orders of magnitude more energy than we already consume, which would run the risk of cooking us all.<p>I would rather see someone or someones trying to break the economy = energy paradigm. At some point, we will be unable to generate more useful energy; I&#x27;d like to see us do more with less.
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NiceWayToDoITabout 4 years ago
This is a story about a billionaire who imagines a rosy future full of unicorns and rainbows. What is the point of more wealth created by AI or magic genie from the lamp when it will end up in the pockets of the same people as always? Even now, there is plenty of wealth, but it is concentrated in 0.01% of the population.<p>So, there is a straightforward question for Sam, why don&#x27;t you give up your wealth now, same as all billionaires worldwide?<p>So spare me of the long rich guy &quot;moral&quot; story, answer is simple neither Sam or any billionaire around the world will. As usually when they do they do it through tax loophole relieves schemes, their money will never get to those who actually may contribute to this world if they could just free their time from the rat race.<p>So, when stronger AI comes online, there will be no fairness. All the immense riches will go to the same minority - that same minority or wealthy people will not give away as they will as always think that they are entitled to it. Same as Elon Musk believes that Tesla currently has a &quot;fair&quot; valuation.<p>... Fairness is a tricky word; it depends on the head, which is pronouncing it ...
johbjoabout 4 years ago
Many basic resources are now almost free in the sense that the market price barely covers cost of production&#x2F;collecting. Vegetables and certain farm products are examples of this. Slightly out-of-date electronics. Many more things are like this. It reduces living costs.<p>This has had no effect on politics wrt to wealth distribution. Rather, decreasing living costs has resulted in increasing inequality because it reduces the perception of need for change.<p>AI in production brings a similar change to the economy as when Chinese labour started producing goods for the world. It will make shiny toys available to everyone, but it will have no effect on wealth or income inequality.<p>So, AI will result in even more &quot;homeless&quot; people with not only iPhones, but an abundance of all sorts of toys. Maybe even houses.
kajumixabout 4 years ago
&quot;We could do something called the American Equity Fund. The American Equity Fund would be capitalized by taxing companies above a certain valuation 2.5% of their market value each year, payable in shares transferred to the fund, and by taxing 2.5% of the value of all privately-held land, payable in dollars.&quot;<p>He is talking about taxing unrealized gains, which is quite unfair. If the share price of a company doubles, it doesn&#x27;t mean the company has extra cash to buy back shares for redistribution. Same with land. I feel property taxes today, as a percentage of market value, are insidious precisely for that reason. Increased demand for housing in my area doesn&#x27;t mean I have more cash to pay taxes. Not until I sell the house and realize that gain.
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tedsandersabout 4 years ago
Looks like it&#x27;s time to add another Moore&#x27;s Law to the list: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tedsanders.com&#x2F;moores-law-of-moores-laws&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tedsanders.com&#x2F;moores-law-of-moores-laws&#x2F;</a>
prestigiousabout 4 years ago
It doesn’t take long for government to own everything if they take 2.5% every year.
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RandomLensmanabout 4 years ago
I very much like the idea of Moore&#x27;s Law for a lot of things (maybe not for everything, there could be some nasty surprises in games of catch-up between offensive and defense).<p>Setting aside social implications, it might also not quite come to this, as not everything might be solvable by data and&#x2F;or thinking. Our understanding of nature could be correct enough in some areas to block progress. For example, it might not be possible to predict which atom will decay next, or maybe there are no gravity shields possible in this universe as it is a fundamental property of mass (very very handwaving here).
bambaxabout 4 years ago
&gt; <i>My work at OpenAI...</i><p>OpenAI isn&#x27;t open, so why did you continue to call it that?
walleeeeabout 4 years ago
you&#x27;d think by 2021 we&#x27;d have wised up to this tired fever dream
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naveen99about 4 years ago
We already have a federal target of 2% inflation and a 20% capital gains tax, which add up to about a 2.5% wealth tax. Also, if the government starts owning shares in equities, they may as well pump and dump the share market directly like they do with bonds.<p>Also if you&#x27;re going to design a utopia per country, why not just make it a global utopia, and model it for the 7 billion humans instead. Same for equality, model it for the global population instead of the 5% living in the usa.
natchabout 4 years ago
Will the stock certificates that are inflationarily printed (or virtually printed, issued) to “pay” regular people in ownership have any value though? Are we being real here?
HPsquaredabout 4 years ago
Technological innovation is a balance between diminishing returns (ever-smaller niches getting filled, ever-increasing complexity) and the occasional breakthrough which spawns further development. The visual metaphor of bacteria developing antibiotic resistance in ever-greater levels of the antibiotic, springs to mind:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;plVk4NVIUh8" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;plVk4NVIUh8</a>
ExtraEabout 4 years ago
I don’t see the world this piece presents panning out. Either we make general intelligence (which then scales almost instantly to be way, way smarter than any human ever and then accidentally kills us [1]) or we don’t and humans still have a role to play in the workforce.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=tcdVC4e6EV4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=tcdVC4e6EV4</a>
psootsabout 4 years ago
&gt; Economic growth matters because most people want their lives to improve every year.<p>Improve how? Should I need economic growth to get better health care? This whole techno-utopian argument seems to hinge on extractive growth because it fails to actually tackle the problems of inequality by providing true redistribution of wealth in any meaningful sense. Trickle-down AI is a sham.
WoodenChairabout 4 years ago
This essay cites no sources and provides no data to back up its big claims and projections. It’s interesting to hear what someone close to emerging technologies is thinking, but big claims require big evidence. It reads like reading Marx, or Kurzwell, or other utopian “futurists” more than anything practical and realistic.
danybittelabout 4 years ago
As an engineer you want to solve problems with systems. The world is too complex for that. It is doomed to fail, which creates an endless cycles of fixing it up, which basically politics is.<p>Can it be improved? Sure, go into politics. Can it be solved, oh good no! We still have collective nightmares of the attempts.
poundofshrimpabout 4 years ago
We’re arguably already in the AI revolution, and I haven’t seen things get much cheaper. Most everyday prices go up with inflation, like they always did. UBI is a wonderful idea but I’m not sure there is currently enough wealth for a scheme like that, even on small scale.
carapaceabout 4 years ago
&gt; A stable economic system requires two components: growth and inclusivity.<p>Stability and <i>continuous</i> growth would seem to be incompatible, surely?<p>&gt; Economic growth matters because most people want their lives to improve every year.<p>It may be true that most people want that but so what?<p>I&#x27;m a big proponent of everyone having a decent level of quality of life, that&#x27;s not the problem. The problem is taking a child&#x27;s view of reality and trying to make it stick when it comes to deciding policy. We <i>can&#x27;t</i> &quot;improve every year&quot; forever. What does that mean? A larger house each year?<p>I can understand <i>saying</i> that as a political move to get people on your side, but it&#x27;s irrational.<p>We must design forms of economic growth that respect basic physical reality.<p>&gt; In a zero-sum world, one with no or very little growth,<p>But we don&#x27;t live in a zero-sum world. We live in a bubble sandwiched between hard vacuum and magma that hosts a fantastic chemical tautology powered (mostly) by the energy gradient between the Sun and the rest of the dark sky. This process is not zero-sum.<p>In order to have a stable system with <i>continuous</i> growth there must also be <i>death</i> and decay.<p>- - - -<p>I think we could set up a &quot;split-level&quot; economy that is physically steady-state and virtually growth-and-death dynamic.<p>The physical economy would be much simpler and much much more efficient than it is today, and everyone would have a decent standard of living within their energy&#x2F;pollution budget. Most of the wins and losses and creativity and innovation and all that good economic drama would happen in the online virtual economy where it can&#x27;t cause environmental issues with our Spaceship Earth.<p>But I don&#x27;t think you have to make national policy to do that. Buy some land in the desert, build &quot;Village Homes&quot;[1] with some integrated regenerative farms, rent&#x2F;lease&#x2F;sell it and repeat. Build hyper-efficient ecologically harmonious neighborhoods. We could do this today, it&#x27;s self-funding and self-correcting. The major issues there would be putting together the expertise and getting past the red tape. All the technology you would need is off-the-shelf.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Village_Homes" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Village_Homes</a>
bawolffabout 4 years ago
&gt; In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work<p>Wait, medical advice is easier than assembly line work??
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m___about 4 years ago
To the author:<p>Stick to pealing the layer on top of what you see in your daily, AI, for now the only output being some analysis and synthesis for some data that has meaning, and is in the hands of a few, for the few. SQL for human data mongers.<p>The data in the public domain are one of many, botched, out of focus, wrong datasets, lack of context, a mix of right context, too limited scope to data... as is your own admitted supposition, of what you see is not what you suggest it would mean. Garbage in garbage out, a DdOS on AI is the big one to solve for now?<p>Add some inevitable layers, individual psychology, societal collective psychology, surplus population and their going rate of psychological settings, the list of variables &quot;known&quot; is endless, even more so are there hiding some very well known &quot;unknowns&quot;.<p>Some serious contenders of raw AI are bluntly omitted, the size of the global population versus the index of resources of the iron-ore ball as is the planet. Relying on &quot;money&quot;, a sublimated layer, to account for anything but a tool for social engineering, as is your outright omission to define at all AI, it&#x27;s reliance on the most infinitesimal part of the few (humans), the outright wrong definition of wealth in it&#x27;s relativity and dynamics, the USA as a definite part of the planet, derivatives of all and everything, i really do not know where to stop to end the rant.<p>As a remark to your artisan ready for consumption product page, ...it is not very data searches friendly, it has a very limited scope, it is suggestive of different proven fallacies, and has no definite declared vocabulary.<p>Are you to blame, of course not, as you suggest yourself AI and not &quot;universal&quot; human genie, as in disproportion of memory and processing capacity is to blame. As long as energy is infinite at the level of AI, the processing versus energy economy of the human brain, as is that even more energy efficient processing brain of say a raven, is largely overpowered in meaning as to the absolute (till now, not necessarily tomorrow), and the nano-technologies and biology of genetics), inferior scalability of human minds.<p>When crudely put, nano-technology, the biology of genetics (Corona probably), are serious contenders readily to cooperate. Again the case for lack of scope and context of the tease of your blog page.<p>Publish or perish well assumed, you Sir are desperately clinging to the flimsy single rope, trying not to drown. Jouralists and media, politics build a living on this, it is called a narrative. I am very convinced that you could come up with such, say every week or two.
tectonicabout 4 years ago
I wonder if we’re mistaking a sigmoid for an exponential.
amirmalekiabout 4 years ago
I can&#x27;t believe no one commented about the green bills turning blue when you hover your mouse above it. How is it implemented?
WalterGRabout 4 years ago
As I recall, Ray Kurzweil wrote extensively about this - minus the tax aspect - in his book The Singularity is Near.
nathiasabout 4 years ago
we find new more specialized jobs, but fewer than we automate, we also create more &#x27;jobs&#x27; to replace the jobs that are gone with some completely redundant human activity and pretend its a job
vincentmarleabout 4 years ago
Great, after the great VC pandemic expert reinvention of last year, they&#x27;ve now found a new victim: capitalism. Really wish these VC types would just stick to what they do best: pump money into overpriced startups.
hntraderabout 4 years ago
TLDR - Implement a wealth tax and use it to pay a UBI.<p>Fine, but he should address why he thinks a wealth tax will work this time when it didn&#x27;t work when it was tried in Europe (due to international competitiveness reasons).<p>Moreover, what&#x27;s the rationale for excluding small business ownership from the tax? Why should a middle-class pensioner invested in public equities with $500k have to sacrifice 2.5 percent of their wealth each year, but a rich person that owns a small business worth $50m has no such burden?
asbundabout 4 years ago
If they could make gpt-4 more coherent than gpt3 and could show understanding on causality than this blog will be more agreeable for me
machiawelicznyabout 4 years ago
IMO AGI is pipe-dream and it will require breakthrough(Darwin&#x2F;Einstein level) rather than incremental improvements. This means it can happen tomorrow or not happen in 1000s of years. What&#x27;s more likely is (post)capitalism for all but I think we need new money and value distribution and funding models for that and projects like Ethereum can possibly deliver this. +1 to taxing land.
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rebelosabout 4 years ago
I really fail to see how parts of the tech community continue to be beguiled by utopianist notions wrt AI and automation, unless what&#x27;s really happening is that the already successful techno-capitalists are trying to lay a disingenuous groundwork for them to innovate ever closer towards AGI, unimpeded.<p>We know what will happen in a future world with more AI and automation that renders more people obsolete: the world at large will increasingly approximate what we already see in the poorest parts of it. Specifically, those with capital and who can access AI and automation will be in charge and have most of the wealth and the rest will look not very different from villagers in Africa or slum dwellers in Mumbai. People who think capitalism is the problem fail to see that there is no alternative to it that is both compatible with human nature and that would also yield a substantially better outcome.<p>The future is a world in which the masses are pacified by the provision of a minimally-viable lifestyle that keeps them just satisfied enough to nullify the threat of violence. And even that bar will be lowered when policing and military force become fully automated.
dvdhntabout 4 years ago
The beginning of the &quot;Capitalism for Everyone&quot; section is laughably out of touch with the reality of 2021.<p>However, buried further down is an agreeable point:<p>&gt; We should therefore focus on taxing capital rather than labor<p>Yes, along with repatriation of capital so tax payers can&#x27;t stash their cash abroad.
jaaklabout 4 years ago
There is one curve following Moore’s Law alarmingly accurately: global temperature record. Many say it is direct result of the other curves, industrialism, perhaps even capitalism in general. What about trying to fix this first?
tehjokerabout 4 years ago
Sam: We better make sure capitalism keeps growing because otherwise people will use the democracy to equalize wealth levels.<p>Sounds like an awful situation.
TaylorAlexanderabout 4 years ago
It’s very good to see someone as influential as Sam talking about this. The idea that automation can be used (intentionally!) to lower the cost of living to zero has been a key component of my personal writing and work for some years now. [1]<p>There is a lot that I agree with here and some things I disagree with. For example capitalism can encourage value creation but it can also encourage rent seeking. Since I have been focused on the idea of lowering the cost of living I’ve come to see rent seeking as a direct antagonist to that goal. Taking something that could be distributed for free and adding a cost to it makes it much harder to bring the cost of life to near zero. The most common way this is done is with intellectual property, and I’ve found several helpful critiques of IP restrictions [2][3][4] that have led me to believe we’d be better off phasing them out and intentionally collaborating with one another.<p>But my biggest disagreement with Altman here is about the means of producing equity in society. I think the proposed tax and UBI would be good. But I don’t think it is the best solution.<p>The elephant in the room here is that Socialists have been working very hard for two centuries to try to understand how to organize an industrial society in such a way as to provide a decent and fair life to all.<p>We’ve completely vilified the notion of socialism in USA to the point that we never even learn about it. Richard Wolff talks about getting an Ivy League economics education in the USA and never being required to read a single word of Marx.<p>Unlike many socialists I think I broadly agree with what most libertarians believe, and we simply use very different terminology and frameworks for understanding the solution. So I support for example left market anarchists aka left libertarian capitalists like the folks at the Center for a Stateless Society.<p>But I think the most significant point is one made by David Harvey, a teacher and scholar of Marxism. Harvey says that wealth redistribution is the lowest form of socialism.<p>The actual point of socialism is not to capture the wealth from capitalists after they have it in their accounts. Instead you change the structure of the organization so that at the point of wealth creation all of the workers and perhaps all of society has some stake in it. The simplest example comes from Richard Wolff, who draws on Marxism to essentially advocate for an increase in worker owned cooperatives. Such an organization could still have whatever leadership structure they wanted, but they would get a vote on who was in charge and they’d make sure pay was fair for all. Socialism is a complex and well studied subject so I cannot relate it all here.<p>But I will say, Altman’s proposed fund is one way of ensuring all workers and all of society have a stake. I strongly prefer using means of organization that automatically benefit everyone without the means of a state to intervene. For example the state protects intellectual property restrictions for certain qualifying works. If we were to stop providing those protections, then the moment a work was created everyone on Earth would receive more benefit than if it was restricted. We could provide every book ever written for free. Car companies could start sharing part designs and standardize on parts to reduce costs to all. When the patents on 3D printers expired the price dropped from $25k to $300 in ten years.<p>I am glad we can ask ourselves how to make this world more equitable for all. Please consider that this has been the goal of socialism for as long as it has existed, and if you reading this are from the USA like I am, you may deeply misunderstand what socialism really means. Regardless of your view I think we can all learn a lot from people like David Harvey. Check out his podcast for a view in to his thinking. [5] See also Economics For People by Ha-Joon Chang [6]<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tlalexander.com&#x2F;machine&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tlalexander.com&#x2F;machine&#x2F;</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;dklevine.com&#x2F;general&#x2F;intellectual&#x2F;againstfinal.htm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;dklevine.com&#x2F;general&#x2F;intellectual&#x2F;againstfinal.htm</a><p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;GZgLJkj6m0A" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;GZgLJkj6m0A</a><p>[4] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bunniestudios.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;?p=284" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bunniestudios.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;?p=284</a><p>[5] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLPJpiw1WYdTPmOmC2i3hR4_aR7omqhaCj" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLPJpiw1WYdTPmOmC2i3hR4_aR...</a><p>[6] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLmtuEaMvhDZbNVIDHA-MTVH0sLb5HP7Pn" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLmtuEaMvhDZbNVIDHA-MTVH0s...</a>
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pgsimpabout 4 years ago
I live in a city with high rents. What would it look like if everybody had a shot at fulfilling their economic dreams? Let&#x27;s say their dream is to live in the center of the city, in one of those flats that now cost 2 million dollars.<p>So society is obliged to give everybody a shot at that 2 million dollar flat, no matter what their line of work or their qualifications are. How is that supposed to work?<p>Some things still are limited and will probably always be limited, unless everybody can live in virtual reality in their ideal world.
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mdpopescuabout 4 years ago
Let&#x27;s build a system that&#x27;s pretty much indistinguishable from socialism, but call it capitalism. That way, when it inevitably fails, we&#x27;ll blame capitalism.<p>Yep. I saw this movie before.