FYI it’s the same study as the previous news about this, as in the same 2000 individuals study with no severe cases (hospitalization) or deaths in either group and very wide margins for confidence.<p>This is just the actual paper rather than the leaked abstract from a few weeks ago.<p>They commissioned a new study to assess the efficacy more precisely especially for severe cases.
This was discussed in the press several weeks back, there was a Downing Street briefing that day about it - they hammered home two points<p>1) The data isn't in on severe disease and hospitalization - and they strongly suspect that it will still have a positive impact on that<p>2) B1351 is not our dominant strain (in the UK and elsewhere) and since it's not more infectious than our already very infectious strain, probably won't be
Maybe I am wrong, but I feel they have published this a bit prematurely? The data is reported honestly, but their power (as indicated by the confidence intervals) is pretty terrible. I wish they had waited longer.<p>At the same time the trend looks bad, and one would suspect it will continue to look bad. But the group with the outcome is pretty small. I hope they plan to keep monitoring this population.<p>EDIT: I should point out that they backup their data with antibody activity assays which do support the narrative in their primary outcome data.<p>EDIT2: ahh, I think I just don't like this result. Frankly it doesn't look good. Boy am I glad I live somewhere there isn't any circulating COVID.
> The finding underscores the importance of genomic surveillance<p>Sounded dystopian until I realized it was in reference to sequencing the virus variants, not the hosts.
If anyone is curious, one of the Moderna scientists who helped develop their mRNA vaccine had a thread about this when this first made the rounds:<p>Twitter thread: <a href="https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1358869462414467085?s=21" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/135886946241446708...</a><p>Easier to read version: <a href="https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1358869469125296135.html" rel="nofollow">https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1358869469125296135.html</a><p>> Let’s talk about immunity and why it’s important to take certain factors into consideration when we look at these studies and maybe why the most recent one on AstraZeneca’s effectiveness on the B.1.351 is a tad bit bothersome. For starters this beauty wasn’t tweeted initially.<p>> See that last bullet point? The one of T-cell immunity. Yeah, that’s vital. Why? The study failed to discuss this aspect. You cannot disregard T-cells in the same breath you are discussing B-cells, vaccines and their respective induced antibody responses. It’s a package deal.<p>> T-cells help protect against severe disease. Their analysis shows 76 out of 87 TCB sites (87%) are NOT impacted by the mutations seen in B.1.351. What does this mean? It means the T-cell response generated by AstraZeneca’s vaccine should be highly effective against this variant.<p>> How are you going to disregard our actual immune systems and their ability to make antibodies for later?
Which may I remind you are DRIVEN by vaccines. They teach our bodies to make antibodies for later, not just during active infection (memory T-cells anyone). That’s immunity!<p>If I’m not mistaken, this study doesn’t have enough information on severe disease and hospitalisations since there were no cases in either group. I think we still need more information from the looks of it.
B1351 was also detected in the US.<p><a href="https://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom/Articles/ID/2639/First-case-of-B1351-variant-identified-in-Washington-State-as-cases-of-B117-increase" rel="nofollow">https://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom/Articles/ID/2639/First-case-...</a>
The late summer booster for AZ that will be issued (prob in the UK first) has already been adapted to this variant specifically and is in advanced trials.<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-07/new-astra-vaccine-in-development-to-fight-south-africa-variant" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-07/new-astra...</a><p>And other vaccines (e.g. Novavax) have been shown to be pretty effective against it<p><a href="https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/novavax-vaccine-has-96-efficacy-against-original-covid-19-strain-55-4-against-south-africa-variant" rel="nofollow">https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/novavax-vaccine-has-96-effi...</a>
<a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214" rel="nofollow">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214</a><p>CONCLUSIONS<p>A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) nCoV-19 vaccine <i>did not show protection</i> against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant.<p>(Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04444674. opens in new tab; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR202006922165132. opens in new tab).
This paper is looking at a small scale human study in SA with mostly younger participants, which does make the results difficult to apply to the wider population.<p>They also only use a 4 week dosing schedule where the suggestion and actual rollout in the UK is following the 10-12 week schedule between first and second doses.<p>The variant in question seems to escape the majority of Antibody detection, but T-Cells still seem to provide significant protection against severe disease and death.<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab083/6124512" rel="nofollow">https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...</a><p><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.435000v1" rel="nofollow">https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.435000v1</a><p>The main published results aren't yet from human scale studies but here is one in hamsters showing a comparison in organ damage and results between unvaccinated and vaccinated with the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
In other news Norway is considering completely stopping with AZ due to unreliable shipments and longer interval between doses. They are saying they can get everyone vaccinated faster<p><a href="https://direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/news/fhi-norge-kan-bli-vaksinert-raskere-uten-astrazeneca-vaksinen.bncB8QbIz" rel="nofollow">https://direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/news/fhi-norge-kan-bli-va...</a>
I wonder if the differential response between AZ and J&J/Pfizer/Moderna is due to the use of the stabilised form of the spike used by the latter and not the former?
Damn, and this was the best hope due to price and once early lead. Let's hope J&J fills their void (Not all countries can afford $60 shots and have ultra cold fridges)
30% of children in Germany have mental issues due to the coronavirus-measures and it looks bad in other countries as well:<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841" rel="nofollow">https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841</a><p>This is a typical situation when the cure (coronavirus measures) is worse than the disease.