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EU vaccine rollout severely lags behind

239 pointsby undefined1about 4 years ago

30 comments

gahaabout 4 years ago
The EU has exported 41 millionen vaccine doses of which the UK has gotten 8 million so far [1]. Meanwhile, the UK and US do not export any vaccines at all. So just as a back of the envelope calculation, with 41 millionen doeses the EU could have vaccinated an additional 10% of its population, while the UK would have had more than 10% less vaccinatetions without those 8 million. This would not completetly close the gap, but the numbers would be quite different then.<p>Anyway, you can interpret this in a postivie way: the EU is trying to be good and is sharing its vaccinations more or less fairly with other countries (for now). However, you can also see it as the EU has no real power at all and is just an easy target to get fooled over by other countries..<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dw.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;coronavirus-eu-not-ready-to-share-covid-vaccines-with-poorer-countries&#x2F;a-56944274" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dw.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;coronavirus-eu-not-ready-to-share-covi...</a>
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svaraabout 4 years ago
This is the wrong thing to complain about. At this point vaccine distribution is a zero-sum game. You might just as well frame it as &quot;EU refrains from pushing itself to the front of the line&quot;.<p>This thing isn&#x27;t over before vaccine availability isn&#x27;t production-limited anymore.<p>The real mistake that the EU made was to not realize early on that vaccine production was going to be a huge issue in 2021, and make fixing that a priority.
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BurningFrogabout 4 years ago
I&#x27;ll just note that without any factories of their own, Israel managed to get more vaccines than any other country.<p>As I understand it, because they were ready to pay whatever it costs. Which, if you look at the numbers, is not much at all.
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Graffurabout 4 years ago
The EU has been beyond useless during the whole covid-19 pandemic. I find it pretty disappointing since with quicker action and common rules we could be in a much better place right now.<p>I think it is silly that EU citizens are dying and&#x2F;or locked down because of money and&#x2F;or contracts.
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standardUserabout 4 years ago
Most of Europe was much slower to approve vaccines than the US and UK. Because of that, I&#x27;ve assumed since the first approvals in December that Europe would lag. Once the US, UK and others said &quot;hey, we&#x27;re ready to buy all the vaccines, send us what you&#x27;e got&quot;, what did we expect would happen? I don&#x27;t know why Europe lagged on the approvals, but it seems obvious that would also lead to a lag in rollout.
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klelattiabout 4 years ago
Leaving aside the politics is anyone surprised that roll-out has been slower when organised (to a material extent) by a multinational organisation whose normal modus operandi is to build consensus amongst its members even if this takes time (I&#x27;ve experienced it at first hand).<p>Contrast this with the UK which has a very centralised governance model and a centralised single payer health system.<p>Not being critical of or praising either model or behaviour in either case. Just not surprising that this happens when the challenge is to deliver on a clear objective as rapidly as possible.<p>(And still disappointing that EU citizens have to deal with the results of this).
dangabout 4 years ago
Recent and related:<p><i>Europe&#x27;s Vaccine Disaster</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25964197" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25964197</a> - Jan 2021 (418 comments)<p>I think there have been other threads as well?
vrepsysabout 4 years ago
The EU has failed to secure contracts ensuring the EU produced vaccine stays in the EU[1].<p>So far the EU has exported 41.6 million doses of the vaccine (the largest importer being the UK)[2]. Both the US and the UK have exported 0 vaccines.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;davekeating&#x2F;status&#x2F;1372897635577761803" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;davekeating&#x2F;status&#x2F;1372897635577761803</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;AlexTaylorNews&#x2F;status&#x2F;1373621472607010817" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;AlexTaylorNews&#x2F;status&#x2F;137362147260701081...</a>
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DrNosferatuabout 4 years ago
This:<p>The EU should start to <i>invoke the Doha Declaration</i>[1] (patent release), and use it in full, if necessary. This would pressure AstraZeneca to fulfill the contracts they signed and already got payed for.<p>It is irrelevant that other customers signed first &#x2F; paid more &#x2F; whatever. They signed a contract, and they did not deliver - there <i>must</i> be consequences. (not childish, passive-aggressive, vaccine clot-danger rumors&#x2F;whining)<p>If they cannot deliver their production commitments, then the EU should open the patents and procure the production elsewhere, in AZ&#x27;s place. (for example, Bayer&#x27;s vaccine production capacity is unused)<p>The US did it - the nice way - with J&amp;J and Merck.<p>EU bureaucrats need to adult-up, (and put aside neoliberal dogma &#x2F; possible private sector careers) and act proactively for Citizen&#x27;s (health and economic) needs. The more days people are without vaccination, the more will <i>needlessly die</i>. And further will the economy &#x2F; livelihoods plummet.<p>I also see no problem that the EU continues production beyond its own direct requirements, and supplies those in the World that need vaccines and cannot afford them.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Doha_Declaration" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Doha_Declaration</a>
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Aeolunabout 4 years ago
Oh, and here I sit in my lovely Japan with 1 out of 1300 people having had their first dose.<p>You don’t know how good you have it.
idownvotedabout 4 years ago
No one to blame but Angela Merkel who personally pushed other EU member states into delegating authority on the issue to the EMA even overruling her own minister of health.<p>Needless to say that the EU – the hotbed of excess politicians who&#x27;ve been &quot;early reitred&quot; by their domestic parties into Brussles&#x2F;Strasbourg – isn&#x27;t surprising anyone with failing so hard on the vaccine issue.<p>Failing on so many levels: From the fine-print of contracts (e.g. with AZ) to the big scale disinformation campaigns (by Euractiv and domestic media outlets) spurring Anti-British sentiments (e.g. good old nationalistic hate, up-cycled for the upper-class).<p>What we are witnessing is compound incompetence, which upon fear being detected hastingly looks for an escape goat.
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groosabout 4 years ago
People have friends but nations have interests. Looks like the EU is rediscovering this the hard way.
config_ymlabout 4 years ago
In Switzerland it&#x27;s the same. In my state&#x2F;canton they don&#x27;t even have enough vaccine for the high risk group of 240k people.
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vdddvabout 4 years ago
It&#x27;s easy to miss how far we are on a global scale.<p>3.4% World<p>1.5% Asia<p>0.42% Africa<p>15% N. America<p>10% Europe<p>4.8% S. America<p>0.44% Oceania<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;CoVacProgress" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;CoVacProgress</a>
odirootabout 4 years ago
Well, Hungary is in EU and they seem to be doing much better than the rest.
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jarielabout 4 years ago
Here are national breakdowns:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;covid-vaccinations" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;covid-vaccinations</a>
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Mvandenberghabout 4 years ago
Behind whom?<p>I mean, I get it, my own country is doing badly even compared to other EU countries but we need to keep in mind that the EU is at 10% or so vaccinated which is a lot more than almost any other major country or political bloc.<p>If you show only the UK and US as comparators, it looks really bad but that&#x27;s a hard comparison set to go up against.<p>It&#x27;s actually really ironic that the the UK and US took an approach that most people would consider a very European one by directly involving themselves and investing up-front in vaccine production while the European Commission took the neoliberal route of placing commercial orders in most cases and doing some but much less direct investment.<p>What has ended up happening is basically the confluence of suboptimal but not necessarily bad decision making and some really bad luck.<p>The EU, UK, and US all bought large portfolios of vaccines, enough a few times over if they all worked. They also all invested up-front in R&amp;D, the EU proportionally less per head of population but of course many EU countries are not so rich and do not have so much domestic biotech&#x2F;pharma so this has to be seen in that context as well. The EU is not all France&#x2F;Benelux&#x2F;Germany which do have such industries.<p>All three gambled that their portfolios would pay off.<p>US went heavy on J&amp;J, Pfizer&#x2F;Biontech, Moderna (not as sure about the US portfolio but loads of others) UK went for AZ, Valneva, GSK&#x2F;Sanofi, Novavax, Pfizer&#x2F;Biontech, (and later bought some Moderna but not much and only after it was approved). There is some kind of future agreement with CureVac which was only recently concluded. EU went for Pfizer-Biontech, AZ, J&amp;J GSK&#x2F;Sanofi, CureVac, Moderna. I think there have been discussions with Novavax and Valneva but no concrete orders.<p>(UK and EU have the vaccines roughly in order of order size)<p>So what happened?<p>Essentially the Pfizer vaccine worked brilliantly and they seem to have gotten their scale-up working quite well. Good for EU and UK both.<p>AZ works well (probably slightly less well, and with quite a lot of evidence that the decision not to use the stabilised fusion protein is what is making a difference to performance against certain variants) but AZ is having an absolute nightmare getting their yields up. This has affected all their global production - they had intended to delivery 30m doses to the UK by September... 2020 and 100m by the end of the year and clearly have not been able to. Making biological products is really hard, clearly. This has slowed down both the UK and EU roll-outs but because the UK scale-up started earlier (note my comments above about investment agreements, they started production scaling at their Oxford site as early as April 2020) they are further in the production ramp and of course most of the UK delay was before the vaccine was approved. So despite their UK order technically being later than their EU order, it has been felt much harder in the EU because the &quot;lateness&quot; of the UK order mostly happened before the vaccine (or any other vaccine) was approved.<p>The GSK&#x2F;Sanofi vaccine has been postponed and may never see the light of day.<p>Novavax has had good results and is currently preparing for the approval process.<p>Both the UK and EU had hoped to use either AZ or GSK&#x2F;Sanofi as their &quot;workhorse&quot; vaccine but the UK had slightly less emphasis on it and bought &#x2F; invested in more doses of vaccine per head. The EU has not done a great job here but it&#x27;s also not abject failure, they&#x27;ve just had some bad luck in that simultaneously their two biggest orders were cancelled and slowed down.<p>It could easily have been the case that a different set of vaccines didn&#x27;t work and&#x2F;or were hard to make and then it might be the US or the UK with the problem.<p>I think before we draw big picture conclusions (apart from Ursula vdL being useless, but I think any German who remembered how good she was at defence procurement could have told you that) we need to remember that to some extent there are historical contingencies at play here and we can end up over-fitting by assuming that literally every difference we see is due to structural problems&#x2F;advantages faced by one side or another.
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jopsenabout 4 years ago
Considering all the things the EU could have done better, what is the negative outcome here.. 2-4 months delay?<p>In a year will we still be talking about the vaccine shortness? I&#x27;m thinking no.<p>So yeah, the EU could use dirty tricks like export bans. But do we really need to?<p>At the end of the day, it matters if vaccination picks up before the next flue season. For the reminder of this one, we all have to rely on social distancing.
dependsontheqabout 4 years ago
Well it’s all just hindsight - depending on which vaccines are approved first different countries would have one this race. The EU is a bit of a nicer player internationally in general because the only thing holding it together are the common market rules so it is very rules focused.<p>I think talking about winning or failed vaccination campaigns might be a bit early.
frankjrabout 4 years ago
You can see some statistics for the Czech Republic (population is about 10.7 million) at [0].<p>Vykázaná očkování celkem = Administered total<p>Vykázaná očkování za včera = Administered in the previous day<p>Osoby s ukončeným očkováním (dvě dávky) celkem = People with complete vaccination (two shots) total<p>Osoby s ukončeným očkováním celkem za včera = People with complete vaccination in the previous day<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz&#x2F;vakcinace-cr" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz&#x2F;vakcinace-cr</a>
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GiorgioGabout 4 years ago
What we&#x27;re witnessing is simply normal human behavior. We take care of our tribe before helping anyone else. AZ is HQ&#x27;d in England IIRC and Pfizer, Moderna are US-based companies. Of course the governments are going to &#x27;negotiate&#x27; to have their needs met before allowing exports. If the tables were turned the EU would do the same (as I would expect them to.)
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polytelyabout 4 years ago
I really wish this graph included individual EU countries because the vaccination strategy is specific per country
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phtrivierabout 4 years ago
Headline could have read : &quot;player that manufacture, use and export resource lags behind players that manufacture, use, and don&#x27;t export resource&quot;.<p>A terrible twitter threat summarized this as &quot;UE played expecting fair play. This now looks naive.&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;DaveKeating&#x2F;status&#x2F;1372897635577761803" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;DaveKeating&#x2F;status&#x2F;13728976355777...</a><p>I love bitching at my government like every one else, but it can&#x27;t see what logistics you can improve to vaccinate more people when you don&#x27;t exactly have vaccines.<p>Oh, and great play by FB to make sure no one below 30 in europe wants a vaccine, you played well for team USA on this one !<p>I suppose this will serve as a &quot;never again&quot; shock for bringing back some factories in the EU. Or it will simply serve as a stepping stone for nationalist who will just make things a tad worse, before it (maybe) (one hopes) (who knows ?) gets better.
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VBprogrammerabout 4 years ago
My partner, who is 32 with only minor underlying health issues, received her first jab yesterday. I&#x27;m obviously pleased that she will shortly have some degree of protection both for her sake and for our daughter and I, since my partner is the only one who has to leave the house for work.<p>However, at the same time, I can&#x27;t help feel that we&#x27;ve jumped the queue slightly. The EU is experiencing another wave which will doubtlessly culminate in thousands of deaths, the majority will be from people older or with much more serious health complications than my partner.<p>I&#x27;m kinda sick of reading these debates about who ordered what and when under what conditions. There is a complete lack of compassion, we should be doing what we can to help those countries who still have older people unvaccinated. We can wait another couple of months before our holidays to Blackpool and Stalyvegas.
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bayareabadboyabout 4 years ago
Is Britain doing better than EU? I know nothing but that seems like an easy comparison, right?
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benja123about 4 years ago
I can give my perspective as someone who was born in Canada but spent most of my adult life in Israel.<p>Currently my parents are in Canada, both in their 70s and still have no idea when the vaccine will be available to them whereas I am in Israel in my late 30s and I had my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine over a month ago.<p>The difference between the countries is startling. Yes Israel paid more money for the vaccine and agreed to share anonymized information with Pfizer. The math checked out (cost of closure vs vaccine) so it made sense. The fact that some countries focused on price negotiation vs mass vaccinations astounds me as each day a country is in lockdown costs billions of dollars. But I am not going to focus on that aspect.<p>What I am going to talk about is how Canada and Israel managed the crisis.<p>In Israel the general trend is to not really overthink things. This is perfect when there is a crisis and decisions need to be made fast. For instance when the virus started Israel was one of the first countries, outside of Italy and China, to implement a strict closure. Another habit Israelis have is to bend or flat out break the rules as they are in general very skeptical of anything the government does. This can also be important during the handling of a crisis, as some rules can get in the way of finding a solution faster. But this also has a downside. For instance after a few weeks of closure in which very few people died, a large chunk of Israelis started to ignore the closure rules.<p>Canada on the other hand was very slow to implement a closure but when they did the population was quick to listen and from my understanding continue to follow the rules the government set a year later.<p>Now to the vaccine program, when it became clear that Israel bet on the wrong vaccine, the PM called the CEO of Pfizer 30 times and agreed to pay way more just to get the vaccine faster. Our government, which is normally very slow to move, was able to arrange the funding for this within a few days. When the vaccine arrived in Israel - the government with the healthcare companies (Israel has public healthcare, but it is managed by 4 private companies) implemented a plan within days to distribute the vaccine to the entire population. The plan was intentionally simple with a very simple criteria of who is eligible and who is not (over this age - yes, under this age - no, healthcare worker - yes, at risk - yes). There was also some innovation in that they were the first country to repackage the vaccines so they could be distributed in smaller amounts to places like nursing homes or small communities (this entire process had to be done in a freezer).<p>Remember when I said Israelis break the rules? Well an interesting thing started to happen. At the end day, if there were vaccines that would need to be thrown out, nurses took it upon themself to give leftover vaccines to whoever would take it. They didn’t wait or ask for permission they just did what needed to be done. There were even reports of nurses walking out and pulling people off of sidewalks to come and get vaccinated. This of course didn’t last very long. Within days there were Facebook groups, not managed by any official organization, but by individual Israelis, that were publishing the location of clinics with leftover doses that need to be used by days end. Now the entire country was mobilized as part of the vaccine effort and this meant that very few doses were wasted. You see in Israel, they treated the vaccine effort like a war and that meant mobilizing the population, a clear goal, fast decision making and accepting that the one in the field (the doctors and nurses) have some freedom to make decisions that will lead to the goals being achieved. I don’t think this was a conscious choice, it’s just part of the countries DNA.<p>Contrast to Canada - when they got the vaccine, it sat in freezers while they discussed who would get it first. They didn’t focus on mass distribution and instead focused on making the most correct decision (which of course leads to no decision). It was compounded by the fact that each province created their own distribution plan, often based on a long complex set of criteria. Now maybe it did happen, but I don’t see it being nearly as likely that a nurse in Canada would take it upon him or herself to distribute the vaccine to those that don’t fit the official criteria, even if it meant throwing out vaccines at the end of the day. Canada didn’t take a war footing when it came to the vaccine distribution program.<p>Now let me make something clear - a lot of the things that made the vaccine program a success here, are also the things that cause the biggest headaches during normal times and a lot of the things that made it a relative failure in Canada are what make Canada great (over planning vs under planning for instance). Had the vaccine taken another year, I think Canada would have ended up in a much better position than Israel did.<p>I suspect the EU is much more like Canada and possibly even worse. My impression of the EU these days is that they do not take problems seriously until it’s too late. The writing is always on the wall, but they are very slow to move.<p>There are a lot of good things about the EU too. But in a real crisis I want to be somewhere that knows how to make quick decisions.
tablespoonabout 4 years ago
The free market saves the day again!<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;20&#x2F;world&#x2F;europe&#x2F;europe-vaccine-rollout-astrazeneca.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;20&#x2F;world&#x2F;europe&#x2F;europe-vacci...</a><p>&gt; While Washington went into business with the drug companies, Europe was more fiscally conservative and trusted the free market.
perryizgr8about 4 years ago
This could be considered as a point for greater autonomy, thus favoring brexit. The EU is a much larger government, hence much more inefficient and with much more capacity for incompetence and corruption. In times of crisis, EU nations are dependant on this large bureaucracy, whereas UK can forge ahead and quickly get the people what they need. In this case that&#x27;s the vaccine.
raverbashingabout 4 years ago
&quot;Severely lags behind&quot; well, only if we&#x27;re considering the top performers<p>Countries that are ahead of the EU (on avg.) per person doses are mostly small (Israel, UAE, Chile). Comparable are the UK, US and China<p>In terms of actual doses the EU is behind the US and maybe China (debatable numbers).<p>The rest are behind<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;explorers&#x2F;coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=425..latest&amp;pickerSort=desc&amp;pickerMetric=population&amp;Metric=Vaccinations&amp;Interval=Cumulative&amp;Relative+to+Population=false&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=USA~ISR~GBR~ARE~EuropeanUnion~BRA~CHN~IDN~BGD~RUS~MEX~CHL~European+Union" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;explorers&#x2F;coronavirus-data-explor...</a>
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junipporabout 4 years ago
CTRL-F bureaucracy<p>Cue HN complaining how much &quot;bureaucracy&quot; and how much &quot;red tape&quot; the EU has, and smth smth socialism.
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