Can anyone recommend some quality, somewhat neutral books that analyze the economical, political and military developments over the last and future decades?<p>We are obviously seeing shifts in the global economy and power balance, with the US losing it's complete dominance, China becoming more confident and aggressive, countries like Turkey showing increasing aggression against the EU, and a more multi-polar balance in general.<p>I'd love to learn some more, but most of the books I find are too "pop-sci", have a strong "US good/China scary & evil" tint, or a too narrow focus.
This article suspiciously seems like saber rattling to me. Like it was placed in the Economist to send a message to someone.<p>It is good for global security that France has a strong military and is strengthening it. But it is only a small consideration. It is nonsense to talk about France embarking on a global "high-intensity, state-on-state conflict" and projecting land military power from Russia to Turkey, and "naval presence" in the Indo-Pacific, the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and the Persian Gulf, without noting that this would mean far more powerful militaries than France being involved and would mean nukes flying and most human life on the planet being wiped out in short order.<p>In 2021, saying that France is preparing for a high-intensity war with Russia or Turkey is as absurd as saying that the State of Texas is preparing for a high-intensity war with North Korea or Mexico.<p>The only scenario where France would be engaged in a high-intensity war with Russia or Turkey is if World War III started. I believe that it is reasonable to say that a high-intensity war between the world powers would probably result in the end of human civilization within a few hours. The fact that 10,000 French soldiers are planning to do a 4 day military training exercise in 2023 is a tiny consideration in the larger scheme of any strategic plans that NATO and the EU have for a hypothetical WWIII.<p>What is most suspicious is that the article tries to equate such a world-ending event with on-going and hypothetical French military adventures in Africa. French military adventurism in Africa and the Middle East is not a high-intensity, state-on-state conflict.
So, two competing hypotheses:
1) France knows something we don't know about the likelihood of them getting into a high-intensity war
2) France's military is worried about the civilian government cutting their budget until they are irrelevant, as happened in most of the rest of European NATO, and wants to look relevant
> but also Turkey or a North African country.<p>What? Turkey is separated from France by half a dozen countries, all of which would severely object to Turkish forces passing through them, and other NATO states would also have severe objections to such a conflict. And no North African states have any significant amphibious capability - there is a sea between North Africa and France, you know.
What is "high-intensity war" for the French armed forces?<p>Jacque: "Monsieur Commander, our allocation of Sauvignon Blanc 1961 for the samedi dinner has been redirected to the front!'<p>Claude: "Mon Dieu! Qel sorte du monde! Order the Malbec as soon as possible. Nou sommes perdues!"<p>"And have you made room for the bound-and-gagged ISIS prisonnières? We want to be certain they can view our leisure dining, so as to torture and tempt them to abandon their Muslim faith for a carafe of excellent vin Francais, not to mention our excellent prostitues nicoise.<p>Do not forget that theese is indeed high-intensity warfare and we must bring our bunker-busters to the fore in an overwhelming move to close the gap! Oh, hon, hon, hon!<p>Jacque: Mais Senior Commander, the 5th Brigade of the American military, the pride of Black Fighting strength, will be attending the samedi dinner,<p>Claude: Nous sommes perdues! Peut-etre, peut-etre...oui, I have eet! Tell the cooks to spice the Americains' meals with saltpeter! Oh, hon, hon, hon! I am not a Commander for nothing! With nightfall the French will advance with high-intensity, while ze Americains fumble with their limp pythons! Hon, hon, hon! Commander indeed!
The context of large military operations is not necessarily new. It's about being prepared and not necessarily aggression.<p>>In his strategic vision for 2030 published last year, however, General Thierry Burkhard, the head of the French army, outlined the need to prepare for high-intensity, state-on-state conflict.<p>Flipside when the military gets a 46% boost in budget... that's politicians making it abundantly clear that this is more than operations. This is<p>Now place this in context.<p><a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/09/france-thousands-of-protesters-wrongly-punished-under-draconian-laws-in-pre-and-post-covid19-crackdown/" rel="nofollow">https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/09/france-thousa...</a><p>Anyone remember the Yellow vest protests? Ya they went away after the French government arrested them all.<p>>Between November 2018 and July 2019, 11,203 Yellow Vests protesters were placed in pre-charge detention.<p>As the link points out... France declared martial law pre-covid and has gotten significantly worse during covid.<p>So it makes me wonder. Is this just a continuation of martial law or escalation? Or do they expect their military will be up against other states?
> French officers tend to be more sceptical than British or American ones that technology will transform the battlefield. “Technology is never 100% effective,” warns General Burkhard. “Soldiers must always be able to fight in a degraded way…when the technology does not work any more.”<p>I would be interested to hear more on that from General Burkhard. Because right now - and based on my very limited understanding of the topic - this feels like the kind of statement that could look rather misinformed when looked back at in the future. This actually reminds me of the French army and French generals preparing for WW2; stuck with their existing organizational structures and mental models (that led them to victory in WW1), they discounted new warfare theories/technologies and strategies (such as: combining planes and tanks, blitzkrieg) that led them to a quick and complete defeat.
Good - by preparing seriously in this way (if they go through with it) and browbeating the Germans and Dutch to do the same there is a possibility that Europe will not offer a post Putin Russia an easy out from whatever dire crisis overtakes it.<p>At the moment three divisions could waltz into Berlin and hold the whole project ransom, unless the yanks stopped them. The yanks can stop anything, but as the last whitehouse living person showed - the yanks can be fickle.<p>France must orchestrate a serious military capability in Europe for the sake of global stability, and it must do it now. The Germans must pay for this. Poles, Italians and Greeks could staff it.
It's a way of generating a stable income and something to do for those losing their jobs to automation.<p>Isn't the US military also a huge employer?
It'd be cool for HN to have a [paywall] tag so I don't spend time opening these links.<p>Don't get me wrong, I'd bet the article is great, but I'm not interested in an Economist subscription right now.
The US led western coalition militaries are all now pivoting to peer level(Russia/China) military threats.<p>Russia was a great power in great decline, but still capable of great disruption(Georgia/Ukraine).<p>China is a great power with great momentum.<p>But this is not another Cold War.<p>During the Cold War the world was largely bifurcated into competing networks based on ideology.<p>Nations switching from one network to another were rare and switching costs were high.<p>Now in a highly integrated global economy value proposition is what matters and switching costs for nations is much lower.<p>Having 1 billion daily active users in the developing world on a Superplatform(Facebook/WeChat) is worth more than the 1 trillion sunk cost invested in Supercarriers(Nimitz/Ford Class).<p>This is not another Cold War, it is ruthless and relentless competition between competing value propositions.