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Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

54 pointsby dberhaneabout 4 years ago

11 comments

roenxiabout 4 years ago
At some point people really have to stop trying to guess what is going on in real-time and adopt a more patient, evidence based approach. India is huge, the healthcare system is said to be collapsing and most of them don&#x27;t speak English. We aren&#x27;t going to get coherent reporting in the English press for a few months.<p>On the other hand, if we&#x27;re worried about variants then I hope there are some hard conversations happening about what the strategy here is. Part of what went wrong at the start of COVID around March 2020 was the reactive approach waiting for hard proof that the disease would slip through the borders before cancelling flights. This approach runs a risk that any action will be taken too late.<p>To be honest, I&#x27;m confused by the amount of air travel that is still going on. If locking down large swathes of most countries is on the cards, why is there any air travel happening? Why was there a high profile diplomatic visit to India being planned? Are the benefits from all these plane trips really outweighing the costs? We may as well be trying to evolve COVID to sneak past quarantines.<p>How is it acceptable to scuttle the economy in response to COVID, why are there still plane flights 12 months in to the pandemic? Someone fill me in on what I&#x27;ve missed; this seems to be not taking the situation seriously. Are these variants not going to be travelling between countries by plane and ship?
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mdaniabout 4 years ago
I visited India in Dec 2020, so here&#x27;s my personal take on this based on what I saw. The first lockdown in India was very severe and it basically made the second lockdown pretty unpopular in the business community, at least initially. The dithering contributed to even bigger second wave.<p>The reasons behind the lull between the first and the second waves were not entirely clear, and some people assumed that the herd immunity is being reached. Combined with the desire to return to normalcy after a harsh lockdown, it falsely assured people that the worst was behind them. This created the perfect conditions for a bigger second wave.<p>Finally, the state and every petty official was intoxicated by the powers they weilded during the first lockdown, and they forgot that with great power comes the great responsibility. They unnecessarily focused on tiny things such as fining people Rs. 500 at the traffic lights, while not really understanding the new information on how virus spreads, what are the best ways to tackle transmission and so on. People should have been given the liberty to be outdoors with proper face covering when there was good airflow. They shpuld have known that meeting indoors with poor airflow was the biggest threat. This wasn&#x27;t communicated properly.<p>Some government officials did take decisions proactively to save their own district. For example, see here<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;Sa4vCG1oY6M" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;Sa4vCG1oY6M</a><p>But unfortunately, this was the exception rather than the norm.
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maxericksonabout 4 years ago
Some good news about the &quot;double mutant&quot;, it doesn&#x27;t appear to impact vaccine effectiveness (using antibody reactivity as a measure) more than either mutation alone.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;GuptaR_lab&#x2F;status&#x2F;1388422661018116097" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;GuptaR_lab&#x2F;status&#x2F;1388422661018116097</a>
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drumheadabout 4 years ago
A combination of triumphalism and Stupidity. The govt there thought that they&#x27;d seen off the worst of pandemic and that they&#x27;d achieved herd immunity, so they didnt bother preparing for a second wave. Then politicans decided to hold massive election rallies, allow the largest religious festival in the world to go ahead and open up stadiums for sporting events.
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lebuffonabout 4 years ago
The history of theses things in India seems to be the track that Covid followed everywhere.<p>Is it just human psychology that is the problem?<p>1st wave: everybody clamps down. R goes to &lt; 1<p>2nd wave: people think it&#x27;s over R goes &gt;1, then clamp down again.<p>3rd wave: more of no. 2 but with a broader base of carriers across the nation.<p>3rd wave in India therefore will be really nasty based on other nations 3rd wave, unless their rapid vaccination plan gets a big percentage of the populace vaccinated over the next few months.
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dangabout 4 years ago
Recent and related:<p><i>India’s second wave of covid-19 feels nothing like its first</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27003228" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27003228</a> - May 2021 (316 comments)<p><i>How India went from a ray of hope to world record for most Covid cases in a day</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26916374" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26916374</a> - April 2021 (122 comments)<p><i>India&#x27;s massive COVID surge puzzles scientists</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26898889" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26898889</a> - April 2021 (152 comments)<p><i>India’s second wave</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26886829" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26886829</a> - April 2021 (450 comments)
amriksohataabout 4 years ago
For months a farmer protest has been going on against the government. None of the farmers were social distancing or told to be careful. It also didn&#x27;t help when the opposition parties started putting doubt into peoples minds by calling the vaccine a &quot;BJP vaccine&quot; meaning many didn&#x27;t want to take it.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.economictimes.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics-and-nation&#x2F;its-bjps-vaccine-not-taking-the-shot-akhilesh-yadav&#x2F;articleshow&#x2F;80072610.cms" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.economictimes.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics-and-nation&#x2F;its-bjp...</a><p>Dirty when you politicise people&#x27;s safety.
mulvyaabout 4 years ago
The wave isn&#x27;t primarily due to loosening of restrictions or slack in behaviour. It&#x27;s due to, for a lack of a better term, environmental factors.<p>Look at the countries in the vicinity of India; they all show similar rise at around the same time.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;pakistan&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;pakistan&#x2F;#...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;bangladesh&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;bangladesh...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;sri-lanka&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;sri-lanka&#x2F;...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;maldives&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;maldives&#x2F;#...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;iran&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;iran&#x2F;#grap...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;kazakhstan&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;kazakhstan...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;azerbaijan&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;azerbaijan...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;uzbekistan&#x2F;#graph-cases-daily" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;country&#x2F;uzbekistan...</a> ...<p>COVID is seasonal: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2021.02.28.21252625v2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2021.02.28.21252625v...</a><p>Mumbai had the peak of its &#x27;first wave&#x27; on October 7th. See mobility trends for vehicular and pedestrian traffic at <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid19.apple.com&#x2F;mobility" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid19.apple.com&#x2F;mobility</a>. You&#x27;ll see both monotonically increasing as the peak approaches and then recedes. If this were a simple morality tale of the level of social contact, this wouldn&#x27;t be the case.<p>See this paper for a more thorough look at the epidemiological mysteries of an infectious respiratory disease: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;virologyj.biomedcentral.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;10.1186&#x2F;1743-422X-5-29" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;virologyj.biomedcentral.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;10.1186&#x2F;1743-42...</a>
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webmobdevabout 4 years ago
As an indian, this Pandemic is an eye opener to me on the devastating impact that flawed government policies have on its citizen.<p>As the Pandemic began in India, most of the experts clearly said that all restrictions, like lockdowns, are just to slow down the spread of the disease <i>temporarily</i>, so that the healthcare infrastructure doesn&#x27;t get overburdened. It was understood that India needed to upgrade existing hospitals with more ICU beds and hospitals or build temporary shelters that could house and treat the new cases. It was understood that till everyone is vaccinated, the government needs to prepare for &quot;waves&quot; of infected people to manage the pandemic resourcefully.<p>During the first wave, we had shortages of medical equipments, like ventilators, masks, medicines and PPE kits that needed to be urgently addressed. And it was, to some extent - the government procured these on a war-footing. India had the <i>harshest</i> lockdown in the world. It devastated our economy but on the plus side really reduced the impact of the first wave. Ventilator shortage did result in many death, but this was addressed.<p>Then, after the first wave subsided, a combination of government hubris and the psychological fatigue of being in lockdown &#x2F; house arrest led to both the government and the people fooling themselves into believing the worst was over.<p>Elections were coming up in 5 states, and obviously selfish politicians want people to come to rallies and vote. So huge political rallies were allowed with restrictions (only on paper). The current right-wing power uses religious symbolism for politics, and thus also permitted the largest Hindu religious gathering - the <i>kumbh mela</i>. Again, social distancing and other restrictions were only on paper. Worse, unlike the Saudis who are only allowing vaccinated muslims to attend the religious <i>Haj</i>, there was no similar condition for the <i>kumbh mela</i> in India.<p><i>These two events - the huge political rallies and the Hindu religious gathering at the kumbh mela became super-spreader events as millions attended those.</i><p>This was one of the major policy failures of the Modi government.<p>Now, remember, the experts had pointed out that we need to use lockdowns, and lulls between waves, to upgrade our healthcare infrastructure, right? India didn&#x27;t.<p>As the second wave rose, our hospitals again became overwhelmed and just couldn&#x27;t handle the cases coming in. People were denied hospital admission and asked to wait for emergency beds till admitted patients were deemed fit to go home or died. Worse, a huge shortage of Oxygen in hospitals arose and thousands of people died due to lack of Oxygen. So people were not only being denied treatment but also died during treatment.<p>The depressing irony - <i>India is the largest producer of Oxygen and vaccine in the world!</i><p>So how did India get in to such a situation of facing shortage of both!? The reason is the complete apathy of the government in planning and preparation.<p>While we are the largest producers of Oxygen in the world, we only have 2000 trucks to transport them. Failure to plan and improve the logistics is one of the reason why many of the hospitals are now facing Oxygen scarcity, even though we have a surplus of it! Big Hospitals weren&#x27;t also upgraded with oxygen plants.<p>Our vaccination policy also wasn&#x27;t well thought out. According to an opposition leader, we exported 60 million vaccines between January and March of this year, while we had only vaccinated around 30 to 40 million of our own people! Our vaccine plans also hit a hurdle when a US vaccine by Novavax, that has been licensed for production in India, is facing hurdles of getting the raw material for the vaccine from US (that has obviously prioritized it for its own needs). The government also had thoughtlessly blocked other foreign vaccines from being available in India, for political gains (&quot;India is self-reliant&quot;).<p>We also exported around 1.1 million doses of Remdesivir to other countries. And our media is showing people desperate to buy Remdesivir from anywhere at any price.<p>Yes, the pandemic is a natural disaster, but the disaster that is unfolding in India is largely man-made and will be a case study in the future in all colleges on what happens when proper planning isn&#x27;t done and resources aren&#x27;t utilised properly.<p><i>Summary</i>: We had all the resources. But apathy and poor planning screwed up India&#x27;s fight against COVID.
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29athrowawayabout 4 years ago
India was doing fine until they lowered their guard. Now it&#x27;s out of control.
pmoriartyabout 4 years ago
&quot;India Is What Happens When Rich People Do Nothing&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;international&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2021&#x2F;04&#x2F;india-covid19-moral-failure&#x2F;618702&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;international&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2021&#x2F;04&#x2F;in...</a>
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