Noted elsewhere:<p><i>The Belarus plane hijack is a small reminder why it's generally not a good idea to let governments know who is going to where. I'm not sure why governments that like to think of themselves as democratic don't see the risks.</i><p>-- Alexander Bochmann <a href="https://mastodon.infra.de/@galaxis/106285985254850170" rel="nofollow">https://mastodon.infra.de/@galaxis/106285985254850170</a><p>I'd made a similar point following the assassination of Kim Jung-nam in 2017:<p><i>Travel and hospitality databases are widely accessible and shared amongst a tremendous number of organisations. State intelligence organisations might readily have access through their own state-run airline, or through private operations or plants within same. Similarly for terrorist, narco-criminal, money-laundering, or other organisations. Financial, banking, and payment-processing systems, only slightly less so. A P.I. license or position on a fraud or abuse desk at a major online retailer, or any skip-tracing agency, can have access to such information.</i><p><a href="https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/5ud243/data_are_liability_book_your_assassination_now/" rel="nofollow">https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/5ud243/data_ar...</a><p>What is your threat model?<p>Note that <i>your own</i> threat model may not include possibilities which put <i>others</i> at risk.<p>(In fairness, it appear that Protasevich was followed onto the plane itself, suggesting that in-flight availability of manifests played little role. The question of what <i>pre-flight</i> intelligence methods were employed remains open.)
Just a story from the history. Plane of Bolivian president was forced to land in Viena in July 2013 in order to search for Snowden after France and Portugal forbid it flying through their air space. I strongly belive that Russian propaganda will use that incident as a leverage.<p>To be clear, I highly despise the Belarusian regime and I'm in full support of opposition. I could only hope that EU will do something in return but it looks like it's a standard way of handling the people politically considered to be terrorists. It's not the way it should be done neither by Belarus nor especially by US/NATO if they want to hold the peacekeepers flag. Otherwise it's just double standards and politics.
This is very bold move. They want his network, that's why this young man is so valuable. I hope the international community will act quickly, that his contacts know what they are doing and are prepared for this situation. Because he's facing torture, and the fact his girlfriend was arrested with him will make things worse. I don't know what to do
Greece describes it as a 'state hijacking'.<p><a href="https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-ministry-plane-diversion-is-state-hijacking/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-mini...</a>
I would think launching fighter jets to force the landing of a passenger plane is considered an act of aggression. How will that play out with NATO, of which the origin/destination countries are a part of?
Ryanair's statement is utterly nuts. No mention of their missing passengers:<p><a href="https://twitter.com/RyanairPress/status/1396543331878981632" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/RyanairPress/status/1396543331878981632</a>
Only about 40km from the border: <a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/fr4978#27cce9a2" rel="nofollow">https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/fr4978#27cce9a2</a><p>I wonder what would have happened if they just delayed until they were in lithuanian airspace.<p>EDIT: just realized there were fighter jets involved...
Similar incident: On October 21, 2016, Belavia flight B2-840 from Kyiv to Minsk (of all places) was told to immediately return to the departure airport, or fighter jets would be scrambled [1]. They were only 50km from their destination country's airspace. After the plane landed in Kyiv, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies escorted a passenger off the plane.<p>Not quite the same, of course (no third-party country involved and passenger in question was released shortly thereafter), but forcing commercial airliners to land seems to be somewhat more common than I thought.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/378383.html" rel="nofollow">https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/378383.html</a>
It's really grim:<p>- Flight EU to EU<p>- fake bomb threat<p>- possibly forced to divert to minsk airport by a fighter jet (wasn't the nearest airport)<p>- potential death penalty for targeted journalist
FYI technically it wasn’t a forced landing by fighter jets. “Someone” reported there’s a bomb on the plane while they were in the Belarus airspace, hence they did an emergency landing in Minsk.<p>So while we know who “someone” is and that it’s all planned in advance (the journalist reported that he was followed minutes before take-off), technically speaking the safety protocols were followed, and when landed they arrested a wanted man once he was on their soil.<p>This reminds me of force landing Bolivian president’s plane in the EU flying from Moscow when they thought Edward Snowden was on the plane.
Wars have started over less than this.<p>How long the democratic nations of Europe permit an autocratic regime in their bosom is an open question…if I was Belarus I’d keep my fucking head down.<p>The thing about a destabilised world order is that <i>it works both ways</i>.
Visualizations of the flight path:<p><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2EpIuHXEAYf2I4?format=jpg" rel="nofollow">https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2EpIuHXEAYf2I4?format=jpg</a><p><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2FLf1MWQAEnMs6?format=jpg" rel="nofollow">https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2FLf1MWQAEnMs6?format=jpg</a>
What sanctions are left to use? Asset freezes and travel sanctions weren’t enough.<p>Total export sanctions to the west? They sell some fuel etc. and EU is a large trading partner.
Here is a relevant ICAO document:<p>* <a href="https://www.wing.com.ua/images/stories/library/ovd/9433.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.wing.com.ua/images/stories/library/ovd/9433.pdf</a><p>So I guess the Belarus government would try to claim whatever agreement caused this part:<p>>1.2.1 Pilots-in-command of civil aircraft should be aware that interception may take place in the event that military,customs or police authorities of a State:<p>>...<p>>d) suspect that an aircraft is engaged in illegal flight and/or transportation of illicit goods or persons, inconsistent withthe aims of the Chicago Convention and contrary to the laws of said State.<p>>...<p>I note there there is nothing in there about a bomb threat. So the bomb threat was likely a separate gambit that didn't work.<p>This seems to be quite insane either way. If an interception goes bad the result could be the destruction of the civil aircraft. Not worth the potential risk, no matter who might be on the flight.
Greece describes it as a 'state hijacking'.<p><a href="https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-ministry-plane-diversion-is-state-hijacking/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-mini...</a>
I don’t travel much anymore, but when I did I definitely made a point to select routes that avoided flying over basketcase countries. With the number of planes that have been shot down over war zones, or things like this, it’s often feasible.
The bigger issue here is... what can Belarusian people do?<p>It seems nowadays any people acquiring power in a smaller country can only care about keeping this power, and nothing else.<p>And any revolutionary movement against dictators in these smaller countries can only hope for the replacement of one oppressive regime with another potentially more oppressive regime.<p>It's a lose-lose situation. And it makes me extremely sad.
Would be interesting to hear the communication between Minsk and the airplane here. For example did the captain make the decision to land solely based on the (false) bomb threat, or was there something more going on. Like were they informed that fighter(s) were dispatched?<p>I mean it is obviously very bad to make false bomb threats, but its still very different than forcing by threatening to shoot the plane down.
FYI: Flight manifests are pretty much public data today.<p>Databases of every person flying internationally with passport numbers in last 10 years, or so years go around on onion websites.<p>Thank your "antiterrorism" STAZI, and its well wishers.
> Belta, the state-owned news agency in Belarus, said Mr Lukashenko had personally given the order for the plane to land at Minsk following the bomb alert, and that a MiG-29 fighter jet had been despatched to accompany the Ryanair plane.<p>Interesting framing
Belarusian government controlled medias top story is from 3 days ago, Lukashenko propoganda anticipating sanctions. As if we need more smoking guns: <a href="https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-urges-to-mull-over-response-measures-west-is-not-interested-in-strengthening-of-eaeu-140093-2021/" rel="nofollow">https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-urges-to-mull...</a>
Lukashenko is showing he's willing to go to great lengths to silence opposition and free press completely in Belarus. Arresting opposition party leaders before elections for made-up accusations is par for the course in Belarus... but now he has been doing the same not only to his enemies, but to any newsagency that dares to as much as hint at criticizing his brutal regime, as he's just done with tut.by[1], the now former largest independent news portal in the country.<p>The EU has shown no determination to put a brake on Lukashenko's abuses and has been completely passive so far on the matter.<p>The USA, in my opinion, should show leadership and step in to make it clear that such affront against democracy on a neighbour of its closest allies will not be tolerated. Poland and Hungary (not to mention Turkey a bit further away) are already leaning dangerously close to the kinds of abuse of power only seen in dictatorships, and letting Belarus get away with this international provocation will just make it even more clear that the great powers don't care enough to defend democratic rights anywhere outside their own borders, and they are free to go ahead with their own crackdowns on freedom of expression and disregard of human rights.<p>[1] <a href="https://emerging-europe.com/news/belarus-shuts-down-largest-independent-news-portal-arrests-staff/" rel="nofollow">https://emerging-europe.com/news/belarus-shuts-down-largest-...</a>
According to Ukrainian journalists, a similar plan was carried out by US and Ukrainian intelligence last summer, when a group on a flight from Minsk to Istanbul was planned to be arrested after forceful landing in Ukraine. The plan was interrupted by Belarus detaining the group before they took the flight, based on an alleged leak from the Ukraine president office.<p><a href="https://jamestown.org/program/the-wagner-affair-in-belarus-and-its-implications-for-ukraine/" rel="nofollow">https://jamestown.org/program/the-wagner-affair-in-belarus-a...</a><p><a href="https://censor.net/ru/news/3266959/butusov_lukashenko_primenil_shemu_zahvata_terroristovvagnerovtsev_posadiv_passajirskiyi_samolet_chtoby" rel="nofollow">https://censor.net/ru/news/3266959/butusov_lukashenko_primen...</a><p><a href="https://en.thepage.ua/news/bellingcat-is-making-a-film-about-ukrainian-special-operation" rel="nofollow">https://en.thepage.ua/news/bellingcat-is-making-a-film-about...</a>
I read of some Israeli’s landing in Syria and Iran due to an emergency landing (eg. health emergency, plane malfunction).<p>Similar to an embassy, the onboard territory is based on which country the aircraft is registered to.<p>In the previous cases, the aircrew assured those people they’re in charge of them.<p>So this seems to be a diplomatic incident with Ireland?<p>Two differences though.
- low cost company, maybe aircrew are less knowledgeable.
- bomb alert.
So many words about the situation, but what we should realize is what Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend are going through now. I don't even want to think.
Thing is the BBC article seems to depend largely on an article from a Belarus newspaper, which I doubt has undergone some mangling in translation. Can anyone knowing Russian post an accurate summary of it:<p><a href="https://www.belta.by/president/view/komandu-prinjat-v-minske-zaminirovannyj-samolet-ryanair-dal-lichno-lukashenko-442580-2021/?/2874" rel="nofollow">https://www.belta.by/president/view/komandu-prinjat-v-minske...</a>
Let’s say you were a foreign actor who wanted to disrupt Belarus. Calling in a bomb threat of this kind would be a pretty smart way to do it.<p>Of course, it could be much more straightforward than that (it could just be that Belarus did this for their own reasons). But it’s interesting to think about.
Beyond what the media says about the obvious authoritarian regime, can anyone Belarusian, or a blogger/source, describe the social climate, socioeconomics, political climate, and day-to-day life? How Soviet / Russophile are some people but not others?
For the historically curious, state-sponsored skyjacking is not without precedent. Israel appears to have pioneered it:<p>[1] <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1954/12/13/archives/syrian-airliner-seized-by-israel-plane-l0-aboard-is-forced-down.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/1954/12/13/archives/syrian-airliner-...</a>
[2] <a href="https://www.wrmea.org/1994-november-december/israel-was-first-nation-to-skyjack-a-civilian-airliner.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.wrmea.org/1994-november-december/israel-was-firs...</a>
[3] <a href="https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~furrg/essays/rokach.html" rel="nofollow">https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~furrg/essays/rokach.html</a>
I’m wondering, what kept them from outright shooting the plane down instead of lying about a bomb on board?How would the public have found out about what happened?
I wonder if this might be considered an act of war [0].<p>[0] - <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/law-of-war/Legally-defining-war" rel="nofollow">https://www.britannica.com/topic/law-of-war/Legally-defining...</a>
This is an incredible assault on EU right. A flight leaving EU soil, arriving to EU soil was diverted and forced to land on a country essentially ruled by a strongman, in order to arrest an opposition journalist.<p>Of course Lukashenko has the backing of Putin, so it is a slippery slope. I wonder how the EU will react. This is a major transgression.
An irony to the story is that Poland (who is a party to this as the registration country of the actual plane, and a self-declared leader of the anti-Lukashenko movement) now demands the EU takes strong actions to secure the EU (Poland)’s security.<p>Literally yesterday prime minister went on record to say they will outright ignore the ruling of the highest EU court on an ecological / energy case (lignite mining close to the Czech border.
There are claims that KGB operatives onboard forced the plane to divert - that's a completely different situation from ATC calling the flight to land:<p><a href="https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1396446650718117890" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1396446650718117890</a>
Understandably, people focus about the air maneuvre aspect of this story first.<p>But if you put that aside for a moment and look at things from a higher level perspective: the president of a whole country is SO AFRAID OF A SINGLE YOUNG BLOGGER that he redirects a whole plane, thereby doing a "full Barbara" (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect</a>).<p>Never say one person cannot change the world!
Lukashenko is destined to meet the same fate as Nicolae Ceaușescu.<p>This was an attack on Lithuania, Greece and Ireland.<p>How many more times will western governments bend over as Putin and other tin pot soviet dicktators shoot down or hijack flights?
EU and NATO are too meek to answer this unprecedented act of state terrorism with something stronger than expressing their 'deep concern'.<p>In turn, this will further embolden putin / lukashenko gang to bigger and more outrageous acts. This gang understands only force. Something like a rocket killing a top government official, or seizure of assets.<p>(I say this as a Russian citizen who was recently detained by the police at an anti-Putin protest)
big outrage from europe. makes sense. but were they also outraged when US diverted Bolivia’s presidential plane thinking Snowden was on board? can’t blame Belarus for thinking this is the norm
Interesting how Western governments and the Media™ have attacked Belarus for diverting and grounding an airliner. Childish minds have forgotten when the US did the same thing, grounding Evo Morales' presidential jet and diverting it to Switzerland because they thought Edward Snowden was aboard. Thank you, USA for showing Belarus the way!
Meh, aren't cross-Atlantic flights potentially re-routed through US soil?<p>Isn't it common that flights to Canada need to make an emergency landing which conveniently allows US customs to filter passengers?<p>Diverting planes seems something that states just do.<p>This time it's a smaller state that uses big boy tools.
Most of these Western journalists function as intelligence operatives with instructions to foment coups in non-West aligned states such as China, Venezuela, Iran, Russia and Belarus.<p>The tech community is brilliant in some things but hopelessly naive in others.
Let me bring in a story from the history. Plane of Bolivian president was forced to land in Viena in July 2013 in when it was suspected that Snowden is on the board after France and Portugal forbid it flying through their air space. I strongly belive that Russian propaganda will use that incident as a leverage.<p>To be clear, I highly despise the Belarusian regime and I'm in full support of opposition. I could only hope that EU will do something in return but it looks like it's a standard way of handling the people politically considered to be terrorists. It's not the way it should be done neither by Belarus nor especially by US/NATO if they want to hold the peacekeepers flag. Otherwise it's just double standards and politics.