They're useful, but the cost and quality of digital input devices is going to be improving tremendously.<p>Obviously some people will use them for nostalgia or some such (like a typewriter these days), but do you predict pens/pencils/paper to go obsolete? Why/why not?
Hopefully, in 100 years I'll be able to transport images from my visual cortex into electronic form and edit them through will-power. Only when that technology is perfected within a lag of no more than 200ms, will I give up on pencils.<p>Or perhaps, my skin will evolve into some kind of paper that I can write notes on with a tablet pen that will automatically pop-out from out of my hand due to genetic modifications with really small programmable ant-like machines (really trying to avoid using nano- here).<p>Self-transforming machine elves!
I'm a pen nerd. I keep two in my front pocket. A fine point for text. A wider one for whatever else. Maybe a better question would be "What would it take for me to prefer a digital device over pen and paper?".<p>Here are some issues that are important to me:<p>Physical feedback - I like the way a pen has some resistance against the paper.<p>High resolution - curves need to really be curves.<p>Ease of access - nothing to turn on with pen and paper.<p>I can see how a high quality digital replacement could have many advantages. Storage, search capability, sharing all come to mind.
Look at what's happening with the under twenties.<p>Handwriting is on the wane.<p><a href="http://daleboire.blog.ca/2011/07/18/will-handwriting-disappear-11498039/" rel="nofollow">http://daleboire.blog.ca/2011/07/18/will-handwriting-disappe...</a><p><a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/education/index.ssf/2010/10/most_college_students_print_as.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.oregonlive.com/education/index.ssf/2010/10/most_c...</a>
I'm sure people were asking the same thing when the printing press was invented.<p>I don't see the pen going anywhere. There are many times where it is easier and faster to jot down notes or sketch out ideas on a pad of paper instead of messing around with a computer/tablet/whatever.<p>Also fountain pens are delightful to write with. There is one in my pocket wherever I go.
There are studies that show taking notes by writing them down have a higher recall even if you don't study or review the notes. The same is less likely with typing. I find this somewhat true personally as well. And there are certain things I prefer to do with a pen/pencil over a tablet/stylus or computer
100 years from now the wealthy and the connected will still be using pen and paper because it's difficult to copy the contents of a hand written communication over the network.<p>Modulo cameras of course.
the more important question is- Do we want pens/paper to become obsolete? and Who might benefit from this? Meaning- if all writing and reading material becomes digitized, wouldn't there be the possibility of losing all the data one day? (whether by accident or by someone in charge) Did we forget about the 1984 on Kindle incident? What about Farenheit 451? We need to make it a point to keep them around (the pen and paper) is what I think.
I've never actually thought about it, but given that paper is a burden on the world in terms of trees being chopped down to make it, I can imagine that strongly discouraging frivolous use of paper could become more important to preserving the health of the global ecosystem.