Some options you can choose from or any other option with explanation -<p>A. As soon as a single case is detected<p>B. Hospitals reach a pre-determined percentage of occupancy<p>C. If >50% vaccinated, then no lockdown<p>D. No lockdown irrespective of the on ground situation
Covid has an estimated IFR of between 0.14% and 0.2%, with older age groups (with many comorbidities) <i>heavily</i> dominating the death rates.<p>I would target preventative measures at high-risk groups. I would <i>not</i> implement lockdowns and I would not allow vaccination of healthy, younger age groups.<p>Sweden almost got it right. Their relatively higher death rate is mostly explainable by the failure early on to protect care homes.<p>Also I would redstribute resources from ridiculous military adventures in foreign lands to the health sector, so next time it happens the hospitals don't get swamped.
What I've learned is that "lockdown" is a broad term, not a binary one. Quoting <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns</a> :<p>> Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions colloquially known as lockdowns (encompassing stay-at-home orders, curfews, quarantines, cordons sanitaires and similar societal restrictions) have been implemented in numerous countries and territories around the world.<p>For example, by "lockdown", do you include things like limiting venues to 50% occupancy?<p>Let's say "a single case is detected" .. in someone who just entered the country and is in quarantine, and the quarantine protocols are effective.<p>I would do nothing different.<p>Let's say that single case is detected in someone who just broke the world's record for most number of kisses in 8 hours - 11,030 says <a href="https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/68045-most-people-kissed-in-eight-hours" rel="nofollow">https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/68045-mos...</a> .<p>Then my reaction might be a bit different.<p>Since the circumstances are so varied, I don't see how your question can have a reasonable answer in an HN thread.<p>Except for Broken_Hippo's entirely reasonable answer.
None of these are things I can appropriately choose.<p>I am not a disease expert. If I'm running a country, though, I have access to the disease experts. And the appropriate response is one that is in tune with the advice from the disease experts, who would balance what is best to stop the spread of disease with what we can reasonably expect most of society to be doing.<p>Until then, I'm just some person in a small attic apartment meandering about on the internet and do not have the overview or access to information that would lead to an informed enough decision - especially in light of the life and death situation failure creates.
D. Never. Lockdowns are not effective against covid. Even Australia failed them now.<p>I would a) increase hospital capacity, b) ensure better ventilation, c) promote work from home, d) encourage people to meet more outdoors, e) start vaccine challenge studies to speed up vaccine development considerably.
A, a week ago NZ got the first Delta, today we have 107, stats people think cases are peaking. We have a hard, near total lockdown as no one want this loose, it would kill 10000 plus.