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The trouble with regret minimization

76 pointsby SamvitJover 3 years ago

15 comments

Veenover 3 years ago
I&#x27;m reading &quot;Four Thousand Weeks&quot; by Oliver Burkeman. His central thesis is that you will do almost none of the things that you might have done—you only get 4000 weeks give or take. You&#x27;ll have almost none of the experiences you might have had. A human life is incredibly constrained and you just have to accept that—there&#x27;s no getting around it.<p>Once you do accept it, regret doesn&#x27;t make a lot of sense: you did this instead of that, but so what? There&#x27;s an infinity of other things you didn&#x27;t do and never could have done. Instead, focus on the life you have and living it as best as you possibly can. It doesn&#x27;t last, and the real waste would be to spend your time regretting the past or using every moment to prepare for a future which might not come and won&#x27;t be what you expected if it does (real life never matches the expectations we create in our fantasy version of the future).
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steverbover 3 years ago
Rather than regret minimization, I prefer to focus on try maximization. IE try as many new things as you can.<p>Obviously there are some things that you should never try. Things that you find morally objectionable. Things that have too high a risk of death or permanent disability. Things that will keep you from fulfilling your responsibilities (wife and kids will slow you down). You have to do your own maths on those, but beyond that you should try as many new things as you can manage.<p>You will fail. You will fail a lot. That&#x27;s part of the fun.<p>As a 50 year old man, with four grown kids, in the middle of a divorce after 25 years of marriage, sitting at home with a leg I broke skateboarding last month I can honestly say that I have very few regrets so far. I travelled through a lot of Europe and most of the US before marriage, I&#x27;ve had interesting work, and I&#x27;ve learned how to do a lot of things just by being willing to try.<p>Remember, failure is always an option and is the expected outcome at least 50% of the time. If you&#x27;re not failing, then you&#x27;re probably not trying anything new.
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wing-_-nutsover 3 years ago
It&#x27;s a little disturbing to me that he focuses so much on his career. I don&#x27;t know what I will regret on my deathbed, but I&#x27;m pretty sure work won&#x27;t be prominent on the list. It&#x27;s important to be productive, sure, but let&#x27;s not fool ourselves. Almost none of us will have had any sort of lasting impact. We&#x27;re making Tibetan sand art. Our &#x27;purpose&#x27; is simply to enjoy our time in the sun.<p>I <i>do</i> like his idea of maximizing gratitude though. What will I be most grateful for on my deathbed? Probably the relationships I had, and a chance to see the world as it is now, in the golden age of our civilization, before it gets wrecked by climate change.
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ramblermanover 3 years ago
While it&#x27;s incredibly difficult to predict what we might regret, we actually have easy access to that information from old people.<p>- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;lifeandstyle&#x2F;2012&#x2F;feb&#x2F;01&#x2F;top-five-regrets-of-the-dying" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;lifeandstyle&#x2F;2012&#x2F;feb&#x2F;01&#x2F;top-fiv...</a><p>The author seems quite focused on his career, but a common regret is to wish &quot;I didn&#x27;t work so hard&quot;
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willgdjonesover 3 years ago
Completely agree with the points in this piece. Regret minimisation for the perceived future regrets in a teenager&#x27;s mind is going to be very different to that of someone in their mid twenties.<p>It needs to be calibrated with the best estimates of one&#x27;s future regrets. E.g. when I am 40, I will regret not having children. Therefore I should get my life in order during my late twenties and early thirties to avoid this future regret.
bsenftnerover 3 years ago
Regret is like anxiety and worry: they are self generated conspiracy theories. As in other aspects of life, gossip and conspiracy are best avoided - and triple so when the conspiracy crank is yourself against yourself.
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FooBarBizBazzover 3 years ago
It&#x27;s worth considering the differences between Bezos&#x27; notion of regret minimization and the mathematical techniques of the same name.<p>First, Bezos&#x27; is about a once-in-a-lifetime chance, whereas the mathematical version is more about choices you repeat over and over.<p>Another difference, relating to the author&#x27;s point<p>&gt; Regret is conditioned on what happens<p>is that, in the mathematical version, while you do update your regret tables on the basis of what eventually happens, you make your decisions now on the basis only of what you know so far. Depending how you look at it, you might be satisfied -- &quot;no regrets&quot; -- so long as you perform this procedure properly, i.e., you can forgive your past self for ignorance. In this way you are attached not to the actual outcome but to your correct choice and execution. This creates a kind of &quot;equanimity&quot;. The idea may be very vaguely Jain&#x2F;Buddhist.
usgroupover 3 years ago
Regret is interesting to me because I don&#x27;t really know what to do with it but I&#x27;m mostly convinced that all the primitive emotions have a use and a non-zero optimal quantity. I&#x27;d be interested to hear from those with nuanced thoughts on this topic.
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kohlermover 3 years ago
In this context I can recommend the book <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;25666050-algorithms-to-live-by" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;25666050-algorithms-to-l...</a> . Basing decisions solely on regret minimization is certainly not a good idea. You need to spend some time also on exploration. E.g. you do something where you do not really know what the value is. See also <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Multi-armed_bandit" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Multi-armed_bandit</a> problem
scottmcdotover 3 years ago
An old (abusive) boss of mine coined the term &quot;regret activity&quot;. I think &quot;technical debt&quot; was flavour of the month at the time and and maybe that&#x27;s where it stemmed from.
stochastic_tnover 3 years ago
I thought this was going to be about online convex optimization lol
agumonkeyover 3 years ago
My framework is nobody knows shit so do what you can as much as you can. Bounce, flow. Universe is way too large to know what will be. Seriously too large, even your own body can derail in ways hard to understand.
psd1over 3 years ago
Schopenhauer said, &quot;do it; don&#x27;t do it; you&#x27;ll regret both.&quot;<p>I find that comforting and a great help in the face of option paralysis.
jjk166over 3 years ago
&gt; According to regret minimization, we should project ourselves into the future and consider which path we would regret not taking more. Will I regret not moving for that job opportunity I once had? Will I always regret that I didn’t get a PhD?<p>That&#x27;s not regret minimization, really it&#x27;s the opposite. Regret minimization does not compare two options, it is a threshold that any option either passes or does not. The whole point is that in general there are many possibile courses of action, and it is often impossible to determine the optimal route, but so long as you pick one of the options you won&#x27;t regret, you&#x27;re good, even if it was suboptimal. In Bezos&#x27; quote, he&#x27;s not saying he knew all along that the internet would lead to amazing success and the best of all possible futures, but rather that it was good enough that no matter what happened, he&#x27;d be okay with it. Regret minimization is a method to beat analysis paralysis, not produce it.<p>So in the author&#x27;s example of deciding whether or not to get a PhD, there isn&#x27;t a right answer, but someone doing regret minimization might say &quot;I&#x27;d be proud of getting my PhD even if it doesn&#x27;t ultimately put me in a better position than spending that time working&quot; and thus getting the PhD would be the regret-minimizing course of action. Or equally possible, one might say &quot;I&#x27;d rather try and fail at doing something in the real world than spend all those extra years in academia&quot; and thus not going for the PhD would be the regret minimizing strategy.<p>Now it&#x27;s true that it can be difficult to predict what you&#x27;ll regret and no one can know all the consequences of their decisions, but that&#x27;s just life. Regret is not an unhealthy and unnatural state that you should convince yourself to ignore, regret is the means by which we recognize and learn from bad decisions. You will invariably make decisions over the course of your life which will put your future self in undesirable circumstances, but that you may sometimes fail to make the right decision doesn&#x27;t mean you should never try. To pretend that all choices are equally valid and to tell ourselves that we&#x27;d probably regret the alternatives just as much is to deny that we ever made a mistake in the first place, which may feel good in the moment but leads to much worse future pain as no lesson is learned from the experience and the mistake is repeated. Or worse, without proper introspection it is possible to take away the wrong lessons from a mistake - legitimate concerns become irrational fears, caution becomes anxiety, problems are avoided instead of solved, and we endure terrible pain making a life in which we can pretend to be happy.<p>Regrets are like scars - you shouldn&#x27;t be trying to get them, but if in your old age you find yourself with a lot, you must have lived a pretty interesting life.
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midasuniover 3 years ago
No regrets, they don&#x27;t work No regrets now, they only hurt